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I just watched a documentary called My Octopus Teacher. It was fascinating. I think octopuses are fascinating all by themselves, so this was...

Even if turnout goes up across the board, Biden benefits. There is no reason to think turnout will go up more for Republicans. There's plenty of...

I've read a take about how Trump's personality may influence his chances. What is most important for Trump? Trump and being the best <insert...

After 1 day of early voting in my county

Well, that could either represent higher Dem turn out and depressed GOP turnout, or increased turnout across the board. For me there are still too...

Generally true, but the percentage of early voters who are Democrats is much higher than usual. As for people changing their minds: look at...

From the data I saw early voters tend massively Democrat whereas the Republicans tend to turn out more on the day itself, and in any case early...

There is an equal probability of a 6% swing in the other direction. And even that 6% swing for Trump would be insufficient at this point given how...

1318209045719883778 This would be where you get into the specifics of the electoral college math, where Republicans have an advantage. Certainly,...

That would be an unprecedented polling error. There is far less uncertainty now than in 2016. We know which groups vote for Trump. Third parties...

Yesterday I signed the contract for a new VW ID.3, to be delivered in March (there were varying reasons why March, but the current delivery delay...

The 12% covers both. He factors in both the chance that the polls were wrong and the chance of the polls moving between now and election day. As...

Silver's prediction is that there is a 12% chance of the polls being wrong enough for Trump to win, not that there's a 12% change he might pull it...

American lives aren't a thing Republicans worry about. Fiscal responsibility isn't a thing Republicans worry about. Family values aren't a thing...

Also the stability of the polling this year is remarkable and totally different to 2016.

Fraud, voter suppression and America no longer being a democracy. Silver gives Biden more chance of being over 400 ECVs than Trump has of winning.

Nate Silver doesn't want to get burned again. No one's coming back from being down 10+% 2 weeks before an election, especially with record early...

Nate Silver is giving Trump a 12% chance currently.

Won't happen. Only way he "wins" is if GOP state governments send a Republican slate of electors even in states won by Biden.

I'm curious as to everyone's thoughts. If Trump wins the election by a similar margin as last time or greater what are your top reasons for why he...

Our HOA switched ISP and now the only internet access I have is through my phone. My daughter's been sad about not being able to watch Puppy Dog...

Check out these bananas clips and remember that there's a fucking moron on this forum whose head is stuck so far up his own worthless ass that he...

Without even bothering to actually do any research (because it's such a safe bet): I would venture that Cleopatra, being a Ptolemaic queen of Egypt,...

I can understand why someone would not like to be held accountable for his contributions to the worst example of national self-harm in this century.

The son of some mediocre actor weighs in on the state of the GOP https://youtu.be/xmW00oZoNcM

Plasti Dip is some of the most fussy, sensitive and annoying paints I've ever worked with. Took all day, but I finally got the first car piece...

Apparently that is one meaning of the term. That term is new to me, I'd not heard it this side of the pond but it seems to be an Americanism....

Anyone who voluntarily associates themselves with Trump is a fucking moron. Case in point:

And, if they do not, they don't get to own and use guns? I dunno man, that sounds like a ban on guns for all those people who want to own guns...