Britain referendum on EU membership
Nothing seems to be getting Hazir to come back so maybe this will tempt him ;). I am increasingly of the opinion that the UK will quite possibly have a referendum on membership of the EU, which I predict would occur if it did between 2016-2019.
Under the terms of the UK's brand new Fixed Parliament Bill, barring exceptional circumstances our first ever fixed-date election will occur in May 2015, this will be preceded by the European Elections in 2014. The last Euro Elections in 2009 had the Tories place first, UKIP second, Labour third and Lib-Dems fourth. Since then in the 2010 elections UKIP as always did dreadfully, and the Tory/Lib-Dem coalition government was formed, which is unpopular for austerity.
By 2014 I expect the Tory and Lib-Dem figures to collapse from last time, Labour will probably come first but its entirely possible UKIP could benefit and be ranked first in the Euro Elections. That's pretty meaningless, the Euro Parliament is a sham of a Parliament and has no real impact but it would provide major momentum and a talking point in the 12 months leading up to the General Election. UKIP are already polling ~10% in opinion polls (up from normally 4%) moving into third place and ahead of the Lib-Dems currently.
If the UKIP poll well in the Euros and are still polling over 10% in the polls then it must place an awful amount of pressure for either Labour or the Tories to offer in their manifesto an "in or out" referendum to try and get those voters. Once either Labour or the Tories make that pledge, I expect the other will be obliged to swiftly follow.
In addition, this government has also changed the law to require a referendum on any future significant transfer of powers to the EU. We vetoed the proposed treaty change (thus avoiding that referendum) so the rest of the EU is having to do a treaty within the EU rather than changing the EU itself. But after the current mess is resolved one way or another, i wouldn't be surprised to see calls for yet another treaty.
I don't think we'd have a referendum this side of the general election, but one next Parliament seems like a likely possibility. Should hopefully be after the dust has settled from the current Eurogeddon. I doubt it will be held in an election year (2015 too soon to deal with it after the election, 2020 too close to the following one) so that places the window as 2016-'19.
