The power of bad science

A new study has gotten an insane amount of attention among conservative and alt-right Galaxy Brains (guaranteed to be featured by Tucker Carlson) because of the sensational clickbaity finding that the number of illegal immigrants in the US may have been underestimated by 50-100%:

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ar...l.pone.0201193

There's just one problem: from a truthseeking perspective, it is a pile of hot garbage, which is apparent just from the abstract but becomes even more clear when you read the paper. One might argue that it is methodologically sound, but the assumptions they make--and their approach to using the data--are so severely flawed that it is somewhat surprising to me that they were published in the first place. One of the critical flaws is related to a major problem with the UK's approach to estimating immigration, which I described in the Brexit thread: they don't adequately account for significant changes in patterns of migration over time, eg. high rates of circular migration during some periods.

Some of the peer reviewers for the article wrote a detailed response, and their criticism is summarized here:

https://www.migrationpolicy.org/news...nnot-be-hidden

Extremely disappointing. The study adds little to our knowledge, other than reminding us once again of GIGO. And its harmful impact is likely to be considerable--there are certain people who are already inclined to overestimate the number of illegal immigrants, Muslims, etc. in their countries by an order of magnitude. These people, who tend to dismiss decent scientific work, will see this paper as vindication--and their delusional beliefs will be further strengthened.

Absolutely garbage in garbage out which makes it funny that as per the Brexit thread you keep relying upon statistics when you think they suit your motives even if you think they are garbage. And even when the statistics show that nothing statistically significant has changed.

I guess everyone can be guilty of of being extremely disappointing.

Look up the journal for some reasons we should we weary over what it prints.

Seems like as part of the census we should have a question about someone's citizenship status, that would help clear things up.

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Originally Posted by Lewkowski

Seems like as part of the census we should have a question about someone's citizenship status, that would help clear things up.

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https://www.npr.org/2018/03/27/59743...ensus-question

More disinformation from the Press Secretary :rolleyes: I was a field enumerator for the 2000 census. Some had received the long form in the mail, but found it too complicated and just didn't send it back. (It was confusing, especially the racial/ethnic categories.)

Lewk, you probably think census data can be used to locate and deport "illegal aliens", but note the part about individual confidentiality.

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Originally Posted by GGT

https://www.npr.org/2018/03/27/59743...ensus-question

More disinformation from the Press Secretary :rolleyes: I was a field enumerator for the 2000 census. Some had received the long form in the mail, but found it too complicated and just didn't send it back. (It was confusing, especially the racial/ethnic categories.)

Lewk, you probably think census data can be used to locate and deport "illegal aliens", but note the part about individual confidentiality.

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"Hello ICE, I have an anonymous tip for ya..." At least that is what I'd hope every patriotic census worker would do.

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Originally Posted by Lewkowski

"Hello ICE, I have an anonymous tip for ya..." At least that is what I'd hope every patriotic census worker would do.

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I know you'd love that, because you have twisted ideas about the relationship between laws and patriotism. :donkey:

Conducting a census every 10 years is a constitutional mandate, and it's a pretty big deal. It outlines voting districts and number of legislative representatives, as the population grows and changes, so working for the US Census is a very serious job. We all took a sworn oath to obey the laws, and that meant protecting individual privacy.

I went into some rough areas as part of the job, alone. I could call 911 to request police assistance if I was threatened with any violence (including vicious guard dogs--but we were told to just leave those places for our own safety, and refer it to our superiors), or to report possible criminal activity (like finding an operating crack house or something like that).

We were just tasked with counting people, finding new people and new neighborhoods that weren't around ten years prior, and passing that info to the authorities who then sorted and compiled the data. But *profiling* people as illegal immigrants, and reporting them to INS (or ICE as it's now called) wasn't part of the job. :picard:

Correction: I was an enumerator for the 1990 census. Sorry, got my years mixed up reading about the long and short forms. :noob:

(I had also been working as the county health nurse for migrant farm workers, and knew how complicated it was to count/enumerate moving people)

So Lewk, how would you enumerate the US citizens who have moved from Puerto Rico to FL (or other states) post-hurricane Maria? And how would you enumerate legal migrant farm workers who work most of the year in the mainland, but claim PR as their primary residence?

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Originally Posted by GGT

I know you'd love that, because you have twisted ideas about the relationship between laws and patriotism. :donkey:

Conducting a census every 10 years is a constitutional mandate, and it's a pretty big deal. It outlines voting districts and number of legislative representatives, as the population grows and changes, so working for the US Census is a very serious job. We all took a sworn oath to obey the laws, and that meant protecting individual privacy.

I went into some rough areas as part of the job, alone. I could call 911 to request police assistance if I was threatened with any violence (including vicious guard dogs--but we were told to just leave those places for our own safety, and refer it to our superiors), or to report possible criminal activity (like finding an operating crack house or something like that).

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I bolded the relevant portion.

"Possible criminal activity" wouldn't (and shouldn't) include ethnic or racial profiling.

You'd be a horrible census worker.

And hopefully you'd be rejected if you ever applied for that job. I can't recall the specifics, but I do remember an intake interview that asked questions to weed out people like you, Lewk.

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Originally Posted by GGT

"Possible criminal activity" wouldn't (and shouldn't) include ethnic or racial profiling.

You'd be a horrible census worker.

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Da fk? There is no racial profiling if you are asking a citizenship question and they say they aren't US citizens.

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Originally Posted by Lewkowski

Da fk? There is no racial profiling if you are asking a citizenship question and they say they aren't US citizens.

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You don't understand the process or the principle, apparently. Census workers aren't tasked with figuring out citizenship. And the census isn't just a tool or method used to figure out citizenship, either. The census simply counts people. It's the politicians and legislators that have to sort the data, decide if it's relevant, and apply it to voting issues. They make up the questionnaires, ya know (and that's why there are law suits pending).

And you didn't answer my question: how would you enumerate US citizens from PR that now reside in FL?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GGT

You don't understand the process or the principle, apparently. Census workers aren't tasked with figuring out citizenship. And the census isn't just a tool or method used to figure out citizenship, either. The census simply counts people. It's the politicians and legislators that have to sort the data, decide if it's relevant, and apply it to voting issues. They make up the questionnaires, ya know (and that's why there are law suits pending).

And you didn't answer my question: how would you enumerate US citizens from PR that now reside in FL?

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I suppose it depends where they intend to reside. Is FL temporary until their home in PR is fixed or is FL their new home?

That's partly why taking the census is so hard. Many workers from PR only reside in the states temporarily, during the migrant working seasons, and consider PR their home. That means they can't vote in presidential elections. But if they've changed residency officially (if not permanently) and have resided in another state for more than 6 months (or is it 12?) they are eligible to vote in the 2020 presidential election.

The same can be asked about counting college students, and what year they become eligible voters. Do you count them by where they live temporarily (at school) or where they give as a permanent address (their parents' home) or where they "intend" to reside with their first employment?

The power of "bad science" should also include the derivative algorithms that led to the global financial meltdown.
The trust of religion and faith was also too easily betrayed by predatory priests, church hierarchy, and evangelical lobbyists. Who would have believed those odds?
We are so vulnerable to propaganda that we can't distinguish marketing ads from Russian trolls, or truth from lies.
Or "alternative truths".
But don't be fooled, the moon landing was faked, 9/11 was an inside job, Obama wasn't a legitimate president, and vaccines cause autism.
Years of plucking feathers, one at a time.
And there's a Republican conspiracy to take down Trump, an internal coup made out to look like it came from Democrats.
"What you're hearing and reading isn't really happening"
It's all a witch hunt, and don't bother looking for facts, because the media is nothing but fake news.
Trump is the only one to fix these things, he said so.
And he got elected by saying he could grab women by the pussy or shoot someone in the middle of 5th Ave and not lose a single supporter, and he was right.
So what's all the hoopla anyway, this is the president "we" elected.
There's no science to explain this circus.
:popcorn: