UK Election 8th of June

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Originally Posted by Steely Glint

Failure to learn a thing or two after 30 years+ in Westminster is stretching even his stubbornness a little, though.

And it's clear that his calculations about what was needed to do well in this election were a hell of a lot closer to the mark than May's. He was able to close the credibility gap a little with a fully costed manifesto, he was able to successfully identify and exploit voter concerns about Tory cuts, especially to the NHS and in the wake of the two terrorist attacks, police numbers and he was able to energise and turn out a substantial youth vote. He is an effective public speaker. Not quite up to Blair or Obama standards, but better than Brown or Milliband.

May, on the other hand, profoundly miscalculated on several levels:

* Decided to alienate an important part of the Tory base (old people) for no reason
* Assumed UKIP voters would all come over to the Tories - they didn't. Not after Corbyn said he'd carry out Brexit and end free movement.
* Didn't turn up for debates
* gave the impression that she was making a bee-line for a hard Brexit for no reason, even when it's not clear that's what a substantial number of Leave voters actually want and it certainly isn't what Remainers want (and there are 48% of us, remember)
* Just generally took a the electorate for granted
* over focused on Corbyn's character, IRA links and so forth.
* wasted campaign effort on the NE of England, where the Tories achieved a swing but still didn't actually gain seats.

So who really lacks political nous?

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I said nothing about May being a political genius; clearly she miscalculated, badly, and there's little evidence she would have performed well in a general election (at least one against a competent challenger). I do question, however, how much of the Labour campaign and platform had anything to do with Corbyn. He seems terminally unhinged.

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Originally Posted by Hazir

On the other hand, isn't trying to lure (back) UKIP voters what the Conservative Party has been about every since Cameron and his batch took over?

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No, Cameron was about winning over liberals, quite the opposite of UKIP voters which were dismissed as fruitcakes, nuts and loons.

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Originally Posted by RandBlade

No, Cameron was about winning over liberals, quite the opposite of UKIP voters which were dismissed as fruitcakes, nuts and loons.

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And for that he left the EPP and joined bunch of fruitcakes, nuts and loons in the EP ?

Yes, he threw a bone in the EP and concentrated on the real Parliament that he was a part of.

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Originally Posted by RandBlade

Yes, he threw a bone in the EP and concentrated on the real Parliament that he was a part of.

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And he reduced the country to a bystander in the process.

You were calling us a bystander before then for not being in the Euro. Which is it?

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Originally Posted by RandBlade

You were calling us a bystander before then for not being in the Euro. Which is it?

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You're trying to explain there is no way anybody could make a bad situation worse?

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Originally Posted by wiggin

I do question, however, how much of the Labour campaign and platform had anything to do with Corbyn. He seems terminally unhinged.

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None of regular Labour wanted much to do with so he was forced to make his shadow cabinet and team out of more fringe Labour types.

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-st...-a7783186.html

So much for that. The crazy lady is just as out of touch as always.

Good luck with that Theresa.

Those terrible polls. Better rely on common wisdom again.

https://today.yougov.com/news/2017/06/09/the-day-after/

I'm a little confused. Did May announce a coalition with DUP before approaching their leadership about such a deal? :bulb:

Maybe she'll announce a Brexit deal without consulting the EU. :o

So much for that coalition: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017...enges-theresa/

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Originally Posted by Aimless

I'm a little confused. Did May announce a coalition with DUP before approaching their leadership about such a deal? :bulb:

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So far it's not clear to me if there actually will be a coalition.

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Originally Posted by Aimless

I'm a little confused. Did May announce a coalition with DUP before approaching their leadership about such a deal? :bulb:

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No there will be no coalition. What is being spoken about is known as "confidence and supply". This means it will be a Conservative minority government (as opposed to a Coalition majority one like 2010-15) with the DUP backing the government on major votes like votes of no confidence (confidence) and the budget (supply). The rest of governance will be done on a vote-by-vote basis.

Loki: Ruth has explicitly denied the talk of a split on that story in quite clear terms.

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Originally Posted by Hazir

It would be a bit of a laugh if these elections return a hung parliament.

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Originally Posted by Steely Glint

That would be worth a chuckle or two, but it's not going to happen. I'd call 5%-10% victory for May.

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Just quoting the two first posts I saw in this thread after being out of a few weeks :haha:

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Originally Posted by wiggin

There are plenty of Congressmen who continue to get elected even though they're obviously unsuited for public office; that's what you get in a constituency based system rather than a party list system. Continued persistence in one's district can be down to any number of factors, including your district being way off the median in terms of political leaning. It doesn't really prove anything about your political skill. Corbyn being elected head of Labour is part of a broader trend that has little to do with the political genius of these politicians.

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Having interacted with a local politician for a local issue recently, I have begun to have some sympathy for the idea of killing-off regional systems. Though I worry a country as large as the US would lead to even more emphasis on mass-media and peer pressure than any real focus on ideology and problem-solving.

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Uh, making Farage a lord or involved in the Brexit negotiations is something that will cause trouble for May. Or her successor.

The advantage would be that while Farage hates the EU, at least he knows what he's talking about.

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Originally Posted by Loki

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"B*****cks" again.

If May went anywhere near then Graham Brady's postbag would be overflowing in no time.

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Originally Posted by Hazir

The advantage would be that while Farage hates the EU, at least he knows what he's talking about.

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He's a troll, he's not serious. :bulb:

If you want to pick a British eurosceptic MEP who knows what he's talking about then Dan Hannan would be a much better choice. But it has to be an MP surely.

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More b*****ks or something (Survation was the polling organization that predicted every party's vote share almost perfectly).

Not at all surprising, the Labour party has had an incredibly good press from Thursday night onwards while the Tories have become shambolic.

Election winners normally get a post-election boost in the polls and while May may occupy Downing Street she looks and smells like a loser with her moronic aides who sabotaged our manifesto with their own "genius" sacked. Corbyn meanwhile looks like the cat whose got the cream despite the fact he's still on the opposition benches. He's never been more secure in his job, 50/50 she's gone within the week.

Good riddance if she does go, I can't stand her - and if I can't stand her what does that say about swing voters? I knew all along she was the wrong pick but utterly disappointed at being proven right so quickly.

Usually, such polls are pointless. But you might very well have another election within a year.

Yeah and pre-campaign polls are clearly perfect right?

I'd be less concerned about the exact numbers than the trend itself.

I think if we've learned anything it's that public opinion over here can shift very quickly.

Strong and stable.

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Who are the 29% who have a favourable view of May and where have they been in the last month?

She's officially less popular than Trump.