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Johnson as the foreign minister. Seriously now?
Is there something like a negative IQ? You know, making everyone in the room dumber just for being around them? Because May seems to be a prime candidate for such a classification.
There go your trade deals with foreign countries, Rand.
Hey now don't rule him out, he does have a knack for lying and an impressive track record when it comes to persuading idiots :downcast:
Wonder if this was the price of stepping aside.
How did Johnson do as mayor of London?
This is rapidly changing from am episode of game of thrones or house of cards into the fast show
"Me? Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson? As foreign secretary? With my reputation? What were they thinking?"
He got away with it. People who voted or answered surveys seem to have not hated him. No-one knows if he actually did anything good.Quote:
Originally Posted by Flixy
Could be she handed him just enough rope to hang himself.Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Glint
Do I honestly believe there's a very good chance of a pro-free trade government being elected?Quote:
Originally Posted by Loki
Well we have one now. Our new Foreign Secretary banged on about acquiring free trade deals as being a primary reason for leaving the EU. Remember, I quoted that to you about a dozen pages ago. Besides we've had one for decades, we've always been pro-free trade. It was our reason for being in the EU and we've always tried to push that sclerotic, protectionist organisation much faster in the free trade direction than it was willing to go.
Why? Because we have a socially liberal, cosmopolitan, friendly but serious when needing to be foreign secretary? Plays into his strengths nicely.Quote:
Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...-secretary-is/
Did a good job. Said to have delegated a lot.Quote:
Originally Posted by Flixy
His legacy in London is very good.Quote:
Originally Posted by Aimless
This guy is supposed to be a diplomat, Rand. Judging from what comes out of his mouth on a regular basis, you might as well have put Prince Philip in the slot.
May recognized that fact herself (thus raising her IQ to slightly above room temperature) because putting that guy in charge of the negotiations with the EU would have been an unmitigated disaster for you, thus creating an extra ministry for the EU talks.
That's nice but the strategy put forth by EfB is to not negotiate any trade agreements and instead just unilaterally abolish tariffs. Their own models predict that this basically destroy at least the manufacturing sector. I feel like even the most pro-free-trade Tory govt. would think twice before going down that route.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
Somehow I believe that may no longer be the case :oQuote:
His legacy in London is very good.
He can be a smooth talker when he wants to be. He twice convinced a Labour city to elect him Mayor and was instrumental in convincing the nation to vote Leave. He can play the buffoon but he knows what he's doing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro
He's also probably the one Leaver who could be counted on to both back an EEA agreement if that's what she wants to go for, and one Foreign Secretary who could sell it to the nation once agreed. Think a few steps ahead like a chess player, it's a clever move.
Who said we'll go down the EfB route?? Not me. Nor did Loki since he asked about a "government [that] will both both pursue and obtain those free trade agreements" so we weren't talking about a government that does not pursue free trade agreements.Quote:
Originally Posted by Aimless
Sadiq can't have done that much damage yet surely?Quote:
Somehow I believe that may no longer be the case :o
The tweets that set off this latest tangent was about the EfB's proposals.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
Nah he's just busy cleaning up after BoJo, I was talking about the whole taking-London-out-of-the-EU thing :oQuote:
Sadiq can't have done that much damage yet surely?
Indeed but the principle that I responded to was not. We haven't voted for the EfB proposals, or any other set of proposals to be the be all and end all. We've voted to take control, now we need to ensure the government does the right thing by that. It could use its powers well or badly, but with great power comes great responsibility.Quote:
Originally Posted by Aimless
Not a part of the Mayor's powers or responsibilities.Quote:
Nah he's just busy cleaning up after BoJo, I was talking about the whole taking-London-out-of-the-EU thing :o
A percentage that has the possibility of changing. Though there's no reason why benefits one company reaps can't pass through to others that don't export. If an exporting company grows then it can purchase goods and services from local businesses (which may be able to grow to the point of being able to export themselves). The economy is interconnected my business is and will always be a net importer but a lot of my customers work for one of the nations major manufacturing exporters. That company doing well is key to my own success or failure and weighed on my mind when I cast my vote.Quote:
Originally Posted by Aimless
As I've said all along I hope for a free trade deal between us. But the potential from Brexit lies not in Europe but beyond. The EU's free trade deal with Canada took a blow only today. It wouldn't surprise me at all if we get a trade deal in place before the EU does as the EU's similarity to a pantomime horse with 28 people pulling in opposite directions is making deals fail to be implemented. Bilateral deals will be more plausible.Quote:
You currently have access to the single market. If you lose or risk losing access to that market in the future, that will have a negative impact on your exports.
When the pound collapsed following ERM it saw a dramatic improvement in our trade leading ultimately to some trade surpluses until 1997 when something else happened to the economy and we haven't seen one since.Quote:
British exports tend to be high value and relatively insensitive to minor price-changes brought on by changes in currency value. The last time the pound experienced a significant drop, there was no major positive impact on export volume. This may be different in the case of a more sustained pressure on the pound but in that case the boost in exports will be countered by barriers to trade in the form of tariffs, restrictions, paperwork etc as well as be sensitive to negative changes in the global economy.
To eradicate the trade deficit would require a huge increase in exports (or decrease in imports) but even if there's a slight increase in exports and decrease in imports bringing the deficit down to a more sustainable level that will still be a good change.Quote:
While an increase in trade brought about by the lower value of the pound can perhaps help reduce your current account deficit, that increase in trade will have to be pretty huge--which is unlikely--and also sustained--which is uncertain. Exporters may perhaps see their profit margins grow for a short while, and consumer-driven imports may decline, but that's not necessarily good for your country.
Indeed we need to try and avoid damage to finance and seek new opportunities elsewhere here too.Quote:
You can manage your current account deficit partly thanks to your financial account surplus. If that surplus were to be reduced--not an unlikely consequence of the threat of Brexit--the consequences may not be offset quickly or completely enough by any increase in exports you might see from your falling currency. Ordinary people and small-to-medium businesses would feel the pain most keenly.
I would suggest a better analogy is getting an overweight patient who eats too much red meat to get a new exercise regime and a more balanced diet. There may be some pain especially in the short term and it may leave a bitter taste at times but it's best long term and should end up healthier.Quote:
The one major positive outcome we might expect or hope for is for your economy to become more balanced and less reliant on financial services. But that's kinda like saying that one positive effect of becoming severely ill or being locked up in a north-korean prison-camp is that you might lose some body-fat.
Agreed but since it seems almost everyone else here is entirely negative (including my compatriots) I feel I'm waging a one man war for some optimism.Quote:
Mate, it's good to have a positive outlook, but optimism and positivity should be tempered by at least a small dose of realism.
FYI : in 1992 the BoE could drastically cut interest rates after you dropped out of the ERM What's the scope for interest rates right now?
Quantitative Easing.
Realistically government bonds owed to the BoE under QE are never going to get repaid (no interest is paid either) so one side effect of QE is that while our government debt to GDP ratio is de jure about 90% de facto it is really 67%.
I realize that post was made in July.....but since then Farage has stumped for Trump, making claims that voting for Trump would be like voting for Brexit -- where the US can "take back control of its sovereign powers". It's a confusing analogy, for sure, because the Fear Factor is different in our respective countries, but it's still a real variable used for political purposes.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
When California put same sex marriage prohibition up for a referendum vote, almost everyone here was shocked when it was passed (and Prop 8 became known as PropHate). It was eventually overturned as discriminatory/unconstitutional, but the question remained about which things should be voted on directly (via referendums).....and which things should be assumed by our legal scholars and elected reps.
I can't think of a US equivalent to Brexit, other than some state (like Texas?) voting to secede from the Union.
I hate Farage. He represents what I can't stand and was excluded from Vote Leave as he is a reprehensible bigot.
But he's supporting a Trump presidency.
It isn't possible to be a vile reprehensible bigot and support Trump in your eyes? :confused:
With a serious risk of runaway inflation and/or a declining currency. What you suggest keeps an economy sort of afloat but destroys its monetary standing.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
It's a bit of a dead end street that almost automatically rolls through to capital controls and protectionism.
So does too low interest rates. QE is the way of effectively cutting interest rates that are on the floor.
*Bump* Fifth anniversary today of the Brexit referendum, so I thought it was worth revisiting this to see how predictions and thinking look five years on.
Trade with rest of the world: Britain has rolled over all trade deals we had with the rest of the world as part of the EU so can only build from here. Already secured the first free trade deal outside of Europe (with Australia) and accession talks to join the CPTPP (referred to as the TPP five years ago in this thread). So a big check for this. Shame President Trump pulled America out of the TPP, though it might ironically make our accession easier. Ideal scenario would be that Britain joins the CPTPP then the USA joins it after us, but I don't think that will happen.
The EU to be fair have made their own trade deal with Japan so the "no major country" remark five years ago is no longer correct. But there's still not many major trade deals with the major nations of the world by the EU so we have a lot of room to create our own that are a bonus.
Liz Truss is working her socks off to get more trade deals and there's no major domestic opposition to any of that.
So a big fat tick for me on this one.
Trade with the EU: We have a zero tariff, zero quota deal. Great.
The EU has been more jilted and petty on border checks than I expected. The trade deal took longer to negotiate than I expected, but that's because of May's weakness I think, wasn't expecting that, and its been reversed since.
So far the trade figures seem to show an improvement in our balance of trade with Europe and that disruption is temporary.
Constitutional Values: UK has successfully regained all laws on GB. Great. The EU have continued integrating and it seems quite clear now in hindsight that the UK and the EU were not a good fit.
NI has been a bigger issue than I expected, but primarily again I think because of May's weakness. This needs resolving to the satisfaction of all communities but to be frank its a very low priority for me.
Migration: Played out as I expected. Immigration has been made easier, not harder, for the rest of the world and the world now operates on a fairer system. As expected (Covid-aside), holiday movements across Europe aren't going to be an issue. Its been made easier to get a visa for working in the NHS, or for other skilled jobs. The balance of migration should switch from low-skilled minimum wage Europeans, to higher skilled migrants.
Other unforeseen issue, housing: Recently been convinced by Liberal Democrats oddly enough that in hindsight ending free movement was a good thing not a shame. One issue I hadn't considered at the time was the housing market and if it was up to me we could have much more house building and much more immigration going hand in hand. However housing planning regulations are very tough in this country. In the past decade the UK's population has increased by 10%. In the past generation the population has increased by 10 million. I'd have no problem with that, except housing hasn't kept up and local authorities across the country are dominated by NIMBYs. As a result house prices have become astronomic. The government has been looking to tackle this issue by making it easier to build houses - but are getting opposed tooth and nail by the Liberal Democrats and others and the Liberal Democrats are challenging Tory MPs by becoming the party of NIMBYs. I worry that the government is going to fold to pressure and cancel the planning reforms.
Ironically the LDs are still campaigning for more immigration, while at the same time campaigning to oppose construction and back NIMBYs. If you can't build houses, and yet are getting more people in, then that is a recipe for disaster. Liberalising the housing market, making it easier to construct, is still my preferred option but I'm not sure its politically viable - if it isn't and new houses are opposed all the way by NIMBYs then we need to not be having immigration. Everyone who lives here should be able to get a good home, not be packed in Houses of Multiple Occupancy (HMOs) while working for minimum wage to do service jobs. Migrants should be welcomed for life, not just for lattes.
Overall: No regrets. Not too many surprises.
The UK has today officially joined the CPTPP.
Twitter Link
The CPTPP is a bigger trade bloc than the EU, and with faster growing nations too.
It's also on the side of the planet where you are not. And it will have less impact on your economy than the damage of GPSR that came into force.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
This is the 21st Century, not the 1950s, geography is not that important. Especially when a large portion of our trade is services.
Sure, I seriously wonder what you?re on. It would take a couple of centuries worth of gains from cctpp membership to make up for the loss that Bexit caused. If you?re lucky. It?s tells a lot when that many words are necessary to show that the deal is actually, quite insignificant.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
I'm not very surprised with the reports that tell that Brexit was actually worse than even expected.
A vast majority of trade in the world is between neighbors. For all kind of very practical reasons (shipping costs, shipping times, similar language, similar tastes, similar business culture). Most of those reasons apply to services, too.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
I'm curious what the Q4 numbers will tell, shrinking economy, debt ratio over 100%, sterling going down despite interest rate and inflation staying high. It's almost like we're looking at the Turkish economy.
For my residency I have a smallish amount on Turkish deposits. They're 32 days deposits with annualized interest rates going up and down between 40 and 50%. With an otherwise strangely stable exchange rate. €11.000 in Turkish Lira with a return of around €400 a month ��
Reports can say any old shite, can't they?Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
What was "expected" was a recession and job losses, neither of which happened.
Meanwhile in the real world.
The UK is the second most attractive country for investment behind the US, signalling a climb up the rankings, according to an annual survey of global business leaders by the consultancy PwC.
Published at the start of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in the Swiss ski resort of Davos, the survey of almost 5,000 chief executives from 109 countries puts the UK in second place, ahead of China, Germany and India.
That marks the highest ranking for the UK in the survey’s 28-year history – up from fourth in 2024 - and appears to belie some of the gloom that has hovered over the economy in recent months.
https://www.theguardian.com/business...t-survey-finds