Ukraine

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014...n_5595450.html

Uh oh.

Are we going to put sanctions on another 3 Russians now?

A Malaysia Airways passenger airliner has crashed over Ukraïne. Government is blaming the insurgents, insurgents deny having capability to down a plane flying at cruising altitude.

And I'm suddenly wondering when the people I know flying that route were traveling..

Hope your friends are OK Flixy. Many planes travel over warzones at 40,000 feet, though it always bemuses me when on-board flight navigation shows the flight taking a straight line and sharp detour around and away from eg Israel every time.

Thanks I think they're already on vacation. Horrible for families of those who were on it, though.

Flying over warzones is one thing though, but in this area multiple planes have been shot down the past few days, seems weird to still fly there. While I imagine Ukraine and Russia military can distinguish between military and civilian flights* I could see rebels accidentally shooting down a plane they think is military. If they have weapons that can reach it though.

* mistakes happen of course, like that Iranian plane, but this one didn't take off near, and unlike that Korean airliner I doubt this one was mistaken for a spy plane.

Well, the usual threat is due to MANPADs, y'know, the shoulder-carried ground-air-missiles.

But those have a maximum ceiling of about 6 km (depending on the type). For a height of 10 km you're probably looking at radar-guided stationary/vehicular launchers and I'd suspect that those are really only accessible to a professional military, due to the training involved. And someone correct me if I'm wrong, but such launchers should also have some kind of system able to pickup the civilian transponders used by commcercial airplanes...

reddit post with what seems to be the most up to date info:

http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/co...kraine/cj01zdm

morons shot it down thinking it was Ukrainian

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Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro

Well, the usual threat is due to MANPADs, y'know, the shoulder-carried ground-air-missiles.

But those have a maximum ceiling of about 6 km (depending on the type). For a height of 10 km you're probably looking at radar-guided stationary/vehicular launchers and I'd suspect that those are really only accessible to a professional military, due to the training involved. And someone correct me if I'm wrong, but such launchers should also have some kind of system able to pickup the civilian transponders used by commcercial airplanes...

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Regarding professional military: http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_0...allation-1561/

Not a clue about the latter bit.

So much for the statement of the separatists that they "don't have the means to shoot down such a high-flying plane". Yeah, a BUK will do.

Dead kid pictures are starting to pop up everywhere :(

One of the reasons I stick to news sites with editors, who tend to avoid such pictures. There are things I'd rather not see.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro

Well, the usual threat is due to MANPADs, y'know, the shoulder-carried ground-air-missiles.

But those have a maximum ceiling of about 6 km (depending on the type). For a height of 10 km you're probably looking at radar-guided stationary/vehicular launchers and I'd suspect that those are really only accessible to a professional military, due to the training involved. And someone correct me if I'm wrong, but such launchers should also have some kind of system able to pickup the civilian transponders used by commcercial airplanes...

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Russia gave some of the most advanced military equipment to the nationalist scum who are fighting the Ukrainian government and anyone is surprised that this scum then used the weapons against a civilian aircraft? They just shot down 2 military jets yesterday.

I wonder what happens when these weapons end up in the hands of Chechens.

I'm not surprised, really. It's par for the course that the separatists now want to remove the black box themselves and bring it to Russia.

You think this might finally turn the German public against Putin, or are they still in a love affairs with him? As long as Germany remains ambivalent about Russia's actions in Ukraine, no serious sanctions will be passed.

To be honest, Loki, I'm not sure what they'd hope to gain by intentionally downing a passenger jet. These guys may be scum, but they're not terrorists in the traditional sense of the word. I'm more inclined to think they thought they were shooting down a Ukrainian military transport; they downed an An-26 just this week that was flying at about 21,000 feet. Even though they (or their Russian sponsors) have access to SA-11 and SA-17 systems, meaning they certainly have a pretty capable system for taking out aircraft without countermeasures, that doesn't mean they have good IFF or radar systems (or the knowledge to properly operate them).

I'm not suggesting they're justified or absolved of responsibility, of course, I just don't really see the point in shooting down a completely uninvolved civilian jet.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by wiggin

To be honest, Loki, I'm not sure what they'd hope to gain by intentionally downing a passenger jet. These guys may be scum, but they're not terrorists in the traditional sense of the word. I'm more inclined to think they thought they were shooting down a Ukrainian military transport; they downed an An-26 just this week that was flying at about 21,000 feet. Even though they (or their Russian sponsors) have access to SA-11 and SA-17 systems, meaning they certainly have a pretty capable system for taking out aircraft without countermeasures, that doesn't mean they have good IFF or radar systems (or the knowledge to properly operate them).

I'm not suggesting they're justified or absolved of responsibility, of course, I just don't really see the point in shooting down a completely uninvolved civilian jet.

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My thoughts as well.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by wiggin

To be honest, Loki, I'm not sure what they'd hope to gain by intentionally downing a passenger jet. These guys may be scum, but they're not terrorists in the traditional sense of the word. I'm more inclined to think they thought they were shooting down a Ukrainian military transport; they downed an An-26 just this week that was flying at about 21,000 feet. Even though they (or their Russian sponsors) have access to SA-11 and SA-17 systems, meaning they certainly have a pretty capable system for taking out aircraft without countermeasures, that doesn't mean they have good IFF or radar systems (or the knowledge to properly operate them).

I'm not suggesting they're justified or absolved of responsibility, of course, I just don't really see the point in shooting down a completely uninvolved civilian jet.

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It was a mistake. They thought it was a Ukrainian military plane:

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/1...airlines-plane

Pretty obvious it was the rebels. I mean, it would have to have been an accident. None of the actors there is going to deliberately shoot at a civilian plane, so it would have had to have been someone mistaking it for a military one, and the rebels don't have any planes to mistake for civilian aircraft.

Plus the government has no reason to try to shoot down any planes considering that the rebels don't have any.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/obama-...170537363.html

I think it's pretty obvious that Putin calls Obama right after the incident to make sure Obama isn't planning military retaliation. Why call if it was the Ukrainian government responsible?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by wiggin

To be honest, Loki, I'm not sure what they'd hope to gain by intentionally downing a passenger jet. These guys may be scum, but they're not terrorists in the traditional sense of the word. I'm more inclined to think they thought they were shooting down a Ukrainian military transport; they downed an An-26 just this week that was flying at about 21,000 feet. Even though they (or their Russian sponsors) have access to SA-11 and SA-17 systems, meaning they certainly have a pretty capable system for taking out aircraft without countermeasures, that doesn't mean they have good IFF or radar systems (or the knowledge to properly operate them).

I'm not suggesting they're justified or absolved of responsibility, of course, I just don't really see the point in shooting down a completely uninvolved civilian jet.

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An Ukrainian military transport plane cruising at 10.000m a mere 70km from the Russian border? Where did they think this plane was heading?

I guess the Russians lost one EU country opposing harsh sanctions today. Can't imagine being soft on Russia can be popular once the names of some 50+ Dutch passengers on that plane start to get out.

I suppose there will be passengers from other western countries. Lot's of families as well it's holidays season.

Americans on board has already been confirmed.

Edit: and French.

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Originally Posted by Steely Glint

Pretty obvious it was the rebels. I mean, it would have to have been an accident. None of the actors there is going to deliberately shoot at a civilian plane, so it would have had to have been someone mistaking it for a military one, and the rebels don't have any planes to mistake for civilian aircraft.

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My first thought when I heard about it was that it might have been a false flag operation. This possibility has been removed since the Russian separatists took credit for the downing, but it did make some sense before then. Putin's been fighting this as a PR war, and Russia's been known to play dirty in the past - Alexander Litvinenko comes to mind. Since he'd have been acting through a proxy, he has plausible deniability if the op fails, and a massive PR victory if he succeeded in pinning the blame on Ukraine.

Putin's a nasty guy, but not that nasty. But ultimately, he is to blame for giving these kind of weapons to a bunch of nationalist idiots who are incapable of using their brains.

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Originally Posted by earthJoker

I suppose there will be passengers from other western countries. Lot's of families as well it's holidays season.

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Appearantly typically half of the passengers on those flights are Dutch. 50 is a conservative estimate.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Loki

Putin's a nasty guy, but not that nasty. But ultimately, he is to blame for giving these kind of weapons to a bunch of nationalist idiots who are incapable of using their brains.

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I'm really not sure. Think of all the civilian deaths he's already caused - although most of those were collateral damage, it's not too difficult a leap to then start justifying intentional deaths.

Mandatory "I still know it didn't happen like that, it was just a hypothetical" to keep at bay certain parties who would jump on me if I didn't say it every single post.

The problem is that there's no real plausible chain of events that could lead to Ukraine shooting down that jet. There's no reason for them to have anti-air units active in the area.

There is only one: Shooting it down to blame it on the separatist. Why would you otherwise shoot down a plane leaving your country? I mean they had plenty of time stopping the plane all along the way over their country.

Anyway I don't like those conspiracy theories (leave them to Kat to explain it to us), so the mistake is the most plausible explanation so far.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Wraith

My first thought when I heard about it was that it might have been a false flag operation. This possibility has been removed since the Russian separatists took credit for the downing, but it did make some sense before then. Putin's been fighting this as a PR war, and Russia's been known to play dirty in the past - Alexander Litvinenko comes to mind. Since he'd have been acting through a proxy, he has plausible deniability if the op fails, and a massive PR victory if he succeeded in pinning the blame on Ukraine.

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For a downing, but more planes were shot down today I think.