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With a serious risk of runaway inflation and/or a declining currency. What you suggest keeps an economy sort of afloat but destroys its monetary standing.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
It's a bit of a dead end street that almost automatically rolls through to capital controls and protectionism.
So does too low interest rates. QE is the way of effectively cutting interest rates that are on the floor.
*Bump* Fifth anniversary today of the Brexit referendum, so I thought it was worth revisiting this to see how predictions and thinking look five years on.
Trade with rest of the world: Britain has rolled over all trade deals we had with the rest of the world as part of the EU so can only build from here. Already secured the first free trade deal outside of Europe (with Australia) and accession talks to join the CPTPP (referred to as the TPP five years ago in this thread). So a big check for this. Shame President Trump pulled America out of the TPP, though it might ironically make our accession easier. Ideal scenario would be that Britain joins the CPTPP then the USA joins it after us, but I don't think that will happen.
The EU to be fair have made their own trade deal with Japan so the "no major country" remark five years ago is no longer correct. But there's still not many major trade deals with the major nations of the world by the EU so we have a lot of room to create our own that are a bonus.
Liz Truss is working her socks off to get more trade deals and there's no major domestic opposition to any of that.
So a big fat tick for me on this one.
Trade with the EU: We have a zero tariff, zero quota deal. Great.
The EU has been more jilted and petty on border checks than I expected. The trade deal took longer to negotiate than I expected, but that's because of May's weakness I think, wasn't expecting that, and its been reversed since.
So far the trade figures seem to show an improvement in our balance of trade with Europe and that disruption is temporary.
Constitutional Values: UK has successfully regained all laws on GB. Great. The EU have continued integrating and it seems quite clear now in hindsight that the UK and the EU were not a good fit.
NI has been a bigger issue than I expected, but primarily again I think because of May's weakness. This needs resolving to the satisfaction of all communities but to be frank its a very low priority for me.
Migration: Played out as I expected. Immigration has been made easier, not harder, for the rest of the world and the world now operates on a fairer system. As expected (Covid-aside), holiday movements across Europe aren't going to be an issue. Its been made easier to get a visa for working in the NHS, or for other skilled jobs. The balance of migration should switch from low-skilled minimum wage Europeans, to higher skilled migrants.
Other unforeseen issue, housing: Recently been convinced by Liberal Democrats oddly enough that in hindsight ending free movement was a good thing not a shame. One issue I hadn't considered at the time was the housing market and if it was up to me we could have much more house building and much more immigration going hand in hand. However housing planning regulations are very tough in this country. In the past decade the UK's population has increased by 10%. In the past generation the population has increased by 10 million. I'd have no problem with that, except housing hasn't kept up and local authorities across the country are dominated by NIMBYs. As a result house prices have become astronomic. The government has been looking to tackle this issue by making it easier to build houses - but are getting opposed tooth and nail by the Liberal Democrats and others and the Liberal Democrats are challenging Tory MPs by becoming the party of NIMBYs. I worry that the government is going to fold to pressure and cancel the planning reforms.
Ironically the LDs are still campaigning for more immigration, while at the same time campaigning to oppose construction and back NIMBYs. If you can't build houses, and yet are getting more people in, then that is a recipe for disaster. Liberalising the housing market, making it easier to construct, is still my preferred option but I'm not sure its politically viable - if it isn't and new houses are opposed all the way by NIMBYs then we need to not be having immigration. Everyone who lives here should be able to get a good home, not be packed in Houses of Multiple Occupancy (HMOs) while working for minimum wage to do service jobs. Migrants should be welcomed for life, not just for lattes.
Overall: No regrets. Not too many surprises.
The UK has today officially joined the CPTPP.
Twitter Link
The CPTPP is a bigger trade bloc than the EU, and with faster growing nations too.
It's also on the side of the planet where you are not. And it will have less impact on your economy than the damage of GPSR that came into force.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
This is the 21st Century, not the 1950s, geography is not that important. Especially when a large portion of our trade is services.
Sure, I seriously wonder what you?re on. It would take a couple of centuries worth of gains from cctpp membership to make up for the loss that Bexit caused. If you?re lucky. It?s tells a lot when that many words are necessary to show that the deal is actually, quite insignificant.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
I'm not very surprised with the reports that tell that Brexit was actually worse than even expected.
A vast majority of trade in the world is between neighbors. For all kind of very practical reasons (shipping costs, shipping times, similar language, similar tastes, similar business culture). Most of those reasons apply to services, too.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
I'm curious what the Q4 numbers will tell, shrinking economy, debt ratio over 100%, sterling going down despite interest rate and inflation staying high. It's almost like we're looking at the Turkish economy.
For my residency I have a smallish amount on Turkish deposits. They're 32 days deposits with annualized interest rates going up and down between 40 and 50%. With an otherwise strangely stable exchange rate. €11.000 in Turkish Lira with a return of around €400 a month ��
Reports can say any old shite, can't they?Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
What was "expected" was a recession and job losses, neither of which happened.
Meanwhile in the real world.
The UK is the second most attractive country for investment behind the US, signalling a climb up the rankings, according to an annual survey of global business leaders by the consultancy PwC.
Published at the start of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in the Swiss ski resort of Davos, the survey of almost 5,000 chief executives from 109 countries puts the UK in second place, ahead of China, Germany and India.
That marks the highest ranking for the UK in the survey’s 28-year history – up from fourth in 2024 - and appears to belie some of the gloom that has hovered over the economy in recent months.
https://www.theguardian.com/business...t-survey-finds