And nobody gives a shit.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...e-concern.html
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And nobody gives a shit.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...e-concern.html
I think S&P is gaining a reputation of being extremely harsh. It should be interesting to see what happens when a second agency provides a similar downgrade.
The problem is that AA+ should not be "incredibly harsh" under these circumstances.
That's how the sheeples in the finance sector interpret the results. :o Give them time to change their minds and set off another run on currencies.
No, its because the Finance sector decided they weren't AAA months ago. The idea that France was in the same league as Germany or the UK has already been discounted so it makes no difference S&P moving after the fact.
So one has to wonder; who gives a damn at all. If these agencies don't ever get it right (and from the looks of it they don't ever get it right) then why should you consider them relevant to investment decisions.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
There seems to be something very wrong with these agencies. I can't put my finger on what it exactly is that is wrong with them, it's not like they are conspiring or anything, but they seem to be incapable of original thought. I wonder if real successful investors ever pay any heed to what they say.
I think its like most "advice agencies" - the truly successful put more effort in than them, so its redundant for them. Those are the major market movers.
But for those who don't have the time of day (or experience/expertise) to do that, they're better than putting your finger in the air and guessing. Those are the major media players.
They are not just media players, that is the problem. Too many regulations take those ratings into account.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
This is as good a place as any to put this Roland Berger is planning to start up a rating agency, which is supposed to be operational in the second half of this year. Good news for Amsterdam is that it is considered as the main seat of this agency.
I suppose this is the place to post some numbers on sovereign debt....and the dark market involving credit-default swaps.
Yeah, remember me harping and ranting about those synthetic debt derivatives that made Paulson billions in profits, while tax payers had to save big banks (and non-banks like AIG) and give investment firms (Goldman Sachs) bank-holding status? :sour:
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/01/...%2Findex.jsonp
Quote:
Recognizing this weakness in the derivatives market, finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 leading industrialized nations said in 2009 that they wanted to have clearing in place for all standardized derivatives by the end of 2012.
Yet, as of June, only 9.4 percent of the $29.6 trillion credit-default swap market is centrally cleared, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
See that number--nearly 30 TRILLION? That's actually lower than other estimates that include counterparties and other banks beyond the top 5.
The other thing I noticed....and help me if you can.....nowhere did the article mention which institutions sold and "guaranteed" these credit default swaps, or if they'd be able to pay out.
Negotiations are still flapping around for Greece on a deal that has no chance of solving the crisis anyway.
Greece ought to declare bankruptcy and void all debts.
And what would that do other than make it impossible for Greece to get future loans and investment? It certainly wouldn't resolve any of the reasons for Greek debt.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
Wouldn't that trigger a chain reaction that'd topple large French & German banks, possibly even reaching the UK?
The vast majority of the Greek sovereign debts are to other states and international organisations. One does not void ones debts to states and international organisations. Even the Russian revolution of 1917 didn't achieve that for old Russian debts.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
Well, that is not so certain any longer, but if a chain reaction of that sort would be triggered, it would not only bowl over British banks but it would also cause huge damage in the US financial sector.Quote:
Originally Posted by Nessus
It'd cancel the exhorbitant interest payments they're having to make, as well as having to roll over old debts.Quote:
Originally Posted by Loki
Last year I believe the Greeks (excluding interest) actually managed to make a small budget surplus, but including interest ran a deficit well over 10% of GDP. They should still resolve other issues as well, cutting their costs in order to compete - but they're going to have to do that no matter what. Might as well do that without the mammoth ball and chain.
Actually one can, and there is (not much) precedent. Debts are made under Greek law, if the Greeks void that debt is void. They would be unable to get much inward investment for a generation perhaps - but then is that far off the current expectations?Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
Possibly, but if that's the case should that be necessarily the Greek's top priority? Why should they be stuffed for 20 years to save our airs and graces?Quote:
Originally Posted by Nessus
If the current European experiment fails, the consequences will not be any better than they were a hundred years ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
Of course they will be, that's just ridiculous and baseless.
We're not fighting the Americans any more either, and that's not due to some sort of "experiment".
As usual you are mistaken. Greeces debt to private creditors are subject to Greek legislation. Debts to other states and international bodies are a matter of international Law where there is no option of unilaterally cancelling your debt. Unless you have the hardware and firepower to back that cancelling up. But that is where the realm of the legal ends and raw force starts. Last time İ checked Greece was a tiny country with dificulties to pay its gas bill
What debts did the Bolsheviks honour?
So they'd put a band aid to block bleeding from a cut-off limb. This would do nothing to improve Greece's competitiveness, or the ease of doing business in Greece (on which Greece ranks #100 in the world). It won't prevent irresponsible policies once the IMF goes away. All it would do is make it impossible for Greece to get investment and loans, which would make it even less competitive in the long-term. Great solution.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allied_...sian_Civil_WarQuote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
Gosh, well sorryQuote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
Skimmed through that page and can't find the references?
http://articles.latimes.com/1987-10-...11580_1_claimsQuote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
I'm also a bit dubious as to how cancelling the debts would improve the Greek lot. After all, they'd still need a lot of reforms - but then they wouldn't be able to get any money at all. And it's not as if Greece has anything worthwhile to offer, besides tourism.
Can't tell if this bro-ism is intended at me or Low-keyQuote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
I am not so dubious; it would be a disaster on an epic scale for the Greeks; they have a balance of trade deficit of 10% which from one day on the other they could no longer finance. That means hardship of the kind we have not seen in Europe since WWII.Quote:
Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro
Their continuous striking is absurdism squared, they strike against cuts to wages and pensions and seem oblivious to the fact that the cuts would be several times worse if they don't agree to the conditions the new loans come with.
The Greeks lived in a fantasy where the railways have more employees than customers and still pays its train machinists €60k a year. A quote I will never forget is from the minister responsable for the railways that it would be cheaper to have passengers picked up from their homes and driven to their destination by taxi.
Um, 70 years later, getting 10% of face value (with no interest or inflation adjustment) is literally getting a fraction of a fraction of a percent of the bond's value. A nuisance settlement offer made by the current government on debts it really doesn't owe and couldn't be forced to pay.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
Randblade is correct, in that a sovereign nation can effectively void all debts to other nations or international organization, though the "accepted" only precedent for doing so unilaterally (I'm aware of) is by overthrowing the old government and putting something new in place. Which will almost certainly involve an armed conflict, as people don't give up trillions of dollars without being willing to kill a lot of folk over it. (There have been incidences where a monarch or country has just flat out refused to pay legitimate debts, but that's a casus belli, and even when it doesn't lead to outright war, results in no new creditors being willing to offer needed loans, and a change in power tends to follow in fairly short order from such an event.)
Having said that, new governments in this situation will often honor some of the old debts, or all of the old debts for a reduced amount, as a condition of being able to borrow money from anyone. If the new guys refuse to pay any of the old debts, what sane organization would loan them money, right?
The problem is that all the downsides to default (short of war) are already happening.
Nobody being willing to lend? Already true.
Devastating consequences and austerity? Already true.
They are having to borrow to pay interest on the debts they have borrowed.
It can and potentially will reach the point where enough is enough.
Not being able to purchase imports? Not true.
Hyperinflation? Not true.
Economic collapse? Not true.
Randblade also seems to be unaware of the fact that the present situation gives Greece the ability to borrow to keep itself affloat while paying around 3,5% interest. Very sustainable, and what is more important it FORCES Greek politicians to stop padding the pockets of their croonies and best friends.
Greece is like a poor family that by mistake got an irresponsably high limit on its credit card and thought itself rich while maxing out the card. Now they are finding out that they are not rich at all, nor ever were rich. They need some money to prevent them from going - actually - hungry and cold during the getting things back together again, but the people who can borrow and will borrow to them are not willing to do so without making sure the Greeks don't go back to thinking they are actually rich because they can throw around borrowed money.
What people like Randblade calls austerity is actually balancing the budget. Strangely enough he supports a government in the UK that claims to have that as a policy (not very effective but they are still claiming to be fiscally responsable).
Depends who you're asking, youth unemployment is now 50% - wonder how many imports they're purchasing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Loki
True.Quote:
Hyperinflation? Not true.
Again depends upon who you're asking, this is the fifth consecutive year of recession.Quote:
Economic collapse? Not true.
Young people not being able to move out of their parents home is something entirely different than those parents not being able to buy food or fuel because they don't have money and because the shops are empty.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
It is not really an economic collapse if a country with 11 million people of which 1.5 million work for the state realise that is a tad much, especially if you pay them significantly more than the tax-payers that actually would have to cough up their wages. I doubt if you could even say that Greece has an economy that could collapse.
Now, what one could say is that Greek politicians are criminally stupid by only trying to fix things by taxing those who can't avoid taxation and don't touch their special interest buddies or civil servants. If those assholes had had the guts to push through with long overdue liberalisations of the economy and had chucked out 200.000 civil servants, then maybe Greek would have a fighting chance. Nothing else is going to save Greek, and when I say nothing else that includes a return to the Drachma. Such a stupidity would only make sure that nothing is going to change for the better in Greece.
I have browsed through the Memorandum, and I see a lot of long overdue measures demanded by the EMU group. The document is a bit shocking, but entirely understandable if you take into account how little the Greek government has actually lived up to its promises.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/81233785/G...b-2012#page=25
There's a case to be made either way. At best Greece is teetering on the brink, and yet incredibly, the Greeks seem unable to make any sacrifices at all to pull themselves back from the edge... seems to me like a situation where they're bound to go over the edge sooner or later, and the way they're acting now, sooner looks more likely than later.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
This is nonsense.
The Greeks have been making tough decisions. Cuts the budgets that I as a Conservative could only dream our government might implement, the idea they're not doing any is just factually incorrect. Inflate the billions of cuts they've made relative to the size of their economy and can you imagine Congress doing that in the US?
The recession there is getting worse, and worse. Figures out today show that GDP in Q4 fell by 7%, that is incredible. The problem is that with GDP falling at that rate, the pie shrinking, its not going to be possible to get debt under control. Also all predictions are garbage. Every set of predictions say that next year will be better than last, yet every set of data is showing it is getting worse and worse, not better. It is la-la-land to think that even if existing plans go through that debt will be 120% of GDP in 2020.
The Greeks promised tough decisions, delivered on none of them but for the ones that only hurt people they don't give a damn about. Which would be those working in salaried jobs in the private sector. Every single special interest group, including those employed by the state were kept out of the wind.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
Since the crisis started they managed to reduce the state payroll by 6,000 people, which pretty much is the number of people that retired. Greece has consistently not met any of its targets. It's politicians are clowns whose word isn't worth the ink it is written with, let alone the paper used to put it on.
It is a country that in the 1980s was as poor as Turkey, then imagined itself rich with EU funds and cheap credit. What we are seeing now is a return to reality; which by the by means that they are actually poorer than Turkey because that country has managed a turn around in the way it deals with the economy.
I'm rather puzzled as to why you point this out, as if you think it's not a property of every politician everywhere.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
And lest we forget, this is the will of the mob in Greece at the moment, which seems to be to ignore their impending descent into the 3rd world, so, that pretty much ties the hands of their elected officials.
They'll ignore the problem until the flow of money is suddenly shut off, then riot and revolt over the consequences of that, and the 2010's will see another outbreak of Balkanization in the Balkans. A return to normalcy, in that the Balkans have been off the world's list of warring shitholes for a while, and that just seems wrong somehow.
While I am not exactly admiring the average politician I would absolutely not go as far as lumping all of them in with what goes for a 'leader' in Greece. They have taken lying and incompetence to a whole new level.Quote:
Originally Posted by CitizenCain
Do you think relative to 2008 non-interest expenditure by their own nation the Greek state expenditure has gone up/down more or less than US, UK, Dutch etc?