And what happened? Well, drop out was indeed very high; only about 55% of those referred to MWA actually started the programme. But the impacts on benefit receipt were disappointing. Among those who did actually start the progamme, there was essentially no impact. And while there was a substantial impact on those who didn't start - as you would expect, given that the programme was compulsory and they could be sanctioned for non-attendance - this was transitory. Overall, the maximum impact was a 5 percentage point reduction in benefit receipt, and only 13 weeks after starting the programme the impact had disappeared completely. On average, someone referred to MWA spent just 4 days less on benefit as a result.
So what appears to have happened is that while some of those referred did leave benefits as result, they drifted back on quickly. There was no lasting positive impact at all. Indeed,quite the contrary: it appears that some of them returned as ESA rather than JSA claimants:
13 weeks after referral, those referred were 3 percentage points more likely to be on ESA. Not to put too fine a point on it, this is a complete policy disaster. ESA claimants are both more expensive and more difficult to get off benefit than JSA claimants. Indeed, the main thrust of welfare-to-work policy under both this government and the previous one has been to try to move ESA claimants closer to the labour market. MWA appears to achieve precisely the opposite. We can only speculate why, although the obvious answer is that the "hassle factor" of being referred to MWA had the unintended consequence of encouraging some claimants to claim a benefit - ESA - where there is not necessarily any obligation to look for work at all. In any case, whatever the explanation, the long-run costs of moving even a few JSA claimants to ESA will clearly outweigh any possible other benefits of the programme.
Finally, what about employment: no surprises, and no impact at all, here:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-eDnwokYRFr...employment.jpg