Liberals And Public Transportation

HSR isn't the moon landing. The underlying technology of trains is fundamentally very old and proven.

The reason intercity rail worked for a time was because transportation within cities without personal automobiles was very effective. We can't just legislate massive trains between our major population centers. No one will take them and we will have borrowed from China and the union pension funds anyway to build it. It will require incremental changes in urban and suburban organization, which will in turn be focused around new focused transportation initiatives, etc.

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Originally Posted by earthJoker

Huston - Dallas is in perfect HSR distance, the problem is that lack of local public networks.

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The analysis I saw indicated that regardless of the distance, it wouldn't pay off. There is an analysis floating around indicating it might make money, but looking at the assumptions they have to make to get there, it's pretty unrealistic.

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Originally Posted by Dreadnaught

To address Wiggin and GGT's points, we do obviously not have the density to make intracity rail too easy. That said, it was only a century ago that intracity rail was a pretty dominant form of transportation. Even in the mid-west.

Without massive federal subsidies for roads, a nascent auto industry and a society that generally used less energy per capita, intracity rail networks really did work. Several even existed with private and semi-private operation.

I don't underestimate the kind of social change this will entail, but like all things I do think it can be done in baby steps. Which is why I think the Obama administration's approach is off.

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The problem IMO isn't competition from driving (which is generally pretty inefficient and expensive; our interstate system has never really been paid for by fuel taxes) but from flying. I know that some of the industry players get subsidies from the government, but several low price carriers get relatively little, and make a profit from short-haul hops. These are much cheaper than equivalent Amtrak tickets right now, and generally take as much time or less, at least for the shorter distances (factoring in extra wait time at airports). Given the subsidies Amtrak already receives, I can't imagine that ticket prices on HSR will be much lower given the capital investment and upkeep needed for HSR.

The reason rail was the dominant form of transportation was because there wasn't a cheaper, faster alternative. Now there is.

HSR isn't like going to the moon in technology, but it may as well be in attitudes. For all the talk about how "exceptional" the US is, there sure is a lot of pessimistic no-can-do sentiment.

Wimps, the lot of ye. :down:

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Originally Posted by wiggin

The analysis I saw indicated that regardless of the distance, it wouldn't pay off. There is an analysis floating around indicating it might make money, but looking at the assumptions they have to make to get there, it's pretty unrealistic.

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Yeah, that's pritty much what I said, the distance is not the problem there.

Actually the distance is the problem, but not because of the technology, but rather the market.

Please elaborate.

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Originally Posted by earthJoker

Please elaborate.

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What I'm guessing wiggin possibly means could be illustrated with the following example. The Long Island Rail Road operates and maintains the rail lines on Long Island, and parts of Manhattan and Queens. Prices are set based upon how far you are traveling, determined by what zone you are traveling from to the zone you will disembark in. Zone 1 includes New York City, Zone 14, the furthest zone out on the island, includes the Hamptons, Montauk etc. The cost of a monthly ticket, which allows unlimited ridership of the LIRR during that month, from Zone 14 to Zone 1, costs about $430. Due to the distance the commute takes several hours, and due to the smaller population of riders who live in that area compared to others, few trains are scheduled during the day. I would assume that the high cost, long commute, and lack of regular service would be disincentives to use the service, compared to where I live, which is about a 45 minute drive from NYC, with ticket costs being about $130 less, and trains running approximately every 30 - 45 minutes.

Not exactly what I was getting at, but roughly correct. Longer distances might start to become competitive on time with planes because the trains can actually use their max speed for a reasonable period. But they become less competitive on price.

There are other concerns as well. You need a minimum ridership to make things cost effective. Looking at the number of people who travel between two cities right now is a decent measure of your maximum potential ridership, but obviously it's not going to be 100% of that number. If the intercity travel market isn't big enough, it doesn't matter whether the distance is well suited for the maximum effectiveness of HSR.

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Originally Posted by wiggin

Not exactly what I was getting at, but roughly correct. Longer distances might start to become competitive on time with planes because the trains can actually use their max speed for a reasonable period. But they become less competitive on price.

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You need enough passengers to have an hourly train or once every 2 hour. If your business plan wont get such a frequency than don't start at all. The thing with the shorter distance is, that you just don't have to go HSR. For shorter travels you better invest in even higher frequencies, because the overall gain in time will be the same (just because you don't have to wait for your train that long).

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Originally Posted by earthJoker

You need enough passengers to have an hourly train or once every 2 hour. If your business plan wont get such a frequency than don't start at all. The thing with the shorter distance is, that you just don't have to go HSR. For shorter travels you better invest in even higher frequencies, because the overall gain in time will be the same (just because you don't have to wait for your train that long).

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I agree. The reality of many markets in the US is that you won't fill those hourly (or bihourly) trains since the price is uncompetitive or the market isn't large enough.