I understand that. I just find the media shorthand to be weird.
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I understand that. I just find the media shorthand to be weird.
That's the union left wing ideology. Thatcher let industrial jobs fail out of spite. It is BS but your media isn't making it up on their own.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreadnaught
Cameron, Clegg and Milliband all trek north to make pleas for the Union.
Cameron promising more devolved powers to Scotland if they vote No. Shoulda been less complacent at the start of this, Dave. :|
The irony is that if he loses the vote then his reputation will be ruined and he may have to resign as the PM who lost our 300 year old union. But on a party basis his successor would find it much easier to win a majority.
Are you seriously suggesting here that it would be politics as usual in the rUK in the case Scotland votes yes next week? Hilarious. More likely the Conservative party will tear itself apart in the aftermath of Scottish independence. It already hardly is a party at all as is. Any Conservative leader since Thatcher basically has been trying to herd cats, none of them very successfully.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
Labour tore itself apart in the 80s and returned to power with a massive majority for 13 years in the 90s.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
Tories turned to massive in-fighting in the 90s and returned to power (albeit in a coalition) in 2010.
Canadian Tories went down to just 2 seats in the 90s, successor party returned to power with an overall majority in the 00s and is still in power.
Politics will oscillate between left and right and in a First Past the Post system especially will eventually stabilise the party in opposition as they unite to get rid of their opponents. The "centre of gravity" is to the right in England and however the right ultimately stabilises (as Tory not the abhorrent UKIP I hope) it will either hold on or return to power at some point.
If I were a Scott and I'd see the bribes the UK government is throwing at me for saying 'no' against independence, I'd be more inclined to vote 'yes'.
It's pretty shit.
If the case for No hasn't yet been made, it's certainly not going to be made through last-ditch pleas and desperate promises.
WhyScottish can have a referendum but East Ukrainians got shelling?
EastUkrainians have more reason to seek independence because they speak Russianwhile Scottish speak the same language as British do.
good point
lets shell scotland
We need to send vacationing Brits there, along with their tanks.
That would be considered terrorism.Quote:
Originally Posted by Wraith
Because the Scots have campaigned for decades democratically for a referendum and won enough votes at the last election to ensure one, while the Eastern Ukrainian terrorists took up arms and turned to violence.Quote:
Originally Posted by katsung47
Polls are settling around Yes 48 - No 52 it seems. If anything I expect a higher No vote, but it seems almost certain to be a No. I hope I'm wrong.
Everyone else in my family I've discussed it with (not many people) want a No, I'm the only one who wants a Yes. I was around at my grandparents (in their 80s) at the weekend who are very annoyed about the whole thing and very much against it.
Okay, just so we're clear, scots don't speak the same language as the other Brits. I dunno what language they speak but it damn sure ain't English :o :p
1% of Scots speak Scottish Gaelic. 100% of Scots speak English (or Sean Connery English :o ).
I haven't been to Scotland, but what they speak in, say, Trainspotting, is more 'english' than english :pQuote:
Originally Posted by Loki
I like this guys:
It's like the Swiss German of English, maybe that's makes me feel a little bit related to Scots. They also have the same 'r' and 'ch' :heart:
I was listening to more or less on the radio this weekend, and they were speaking to one of the guys who's been doing the polls for the referendum. What he saying was, because of the unprecedented nature of the vote tomorrow a lot of the modals they used for, e.g. general elections, aren't valid. For example, they can't use data on how xyz demographic group voted in the last Scottish independence referendum to predict how they might vote in this one.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
Upshot is, there's a chance the polls might be completely wrong.
Personally, I believe that because while the content of the campaign from both sides has been extremely poor, the yes campaign will suffer more from this because they set out to make the case for independence and they failed to make it. The fact that BT failed, if anything, even harder than they did won't be relevant; the status quo is the default position. I think a lot of undecideds and even some yes voters are going to go no in the privacy of the polling booth, because away from the noise, fury and group-think of the average political campaign people are going to understand how irrelevant most of that stuff was to the decision they were being asked to make.
But I could be totally wrong, one thing the pollsters are confident about is that while the actual numbers are uncertain the direction of travel has definitely been toward's 'yes'. I do think the margin of victory for whoever wins will end up be a surprise.
Agreed with Steely. General election polls tend to be accurate because there are only marginal changes between general elections, and it's not too hard to model those changes properly. There's no precedent for this kind of vote, which means any poll is going to have a huge margin of error. There's no reliable way to estimate turnout and there's no way to get a truly representative poll. I wouldn't be surprised to see anything from a 5% No victory to a 5% Yes victory.
Weird range that Lori giving a 3% variance on one side and a 7% one on the other. I'd say a range of 40-55% for Yes are all very plausible. My best guess is about 45% for Yes as I suspect any still undecided will vote No and it's possible that there are "Shy No" voters.
I understand there are polling stations that closed early for the simple reason there a full 100% of the electorate had already voted.Quote:
Originally Posted by Loki
From experience I can only agree. Party models are usually good and only have bad results when new players appear (e.g. AfD in Germany). But surveys on referendums are much harder. Even though we have 4 national votes with 1 to 3 referendums each a year, the surveys can get easily of more than 5%, which has been shown the last time in the Minarets proposal which was supposed be rejected by a good margin.Quote:
Originally Posted by Loki
Rumour going around Twitter especially but not true because its against the law to close early anyway. Though it has since been reported on the BBC that some polling stations did get 100% turnout. Not sure if that's true or not, but overall turnout certainly seems to be getting to record levels.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
Early results are going to No and it appears all over bar the counting.
Aw, thanks for posting that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Aimless
I haven't followed this much, but recent news has focused on a monetary and currency aspect --- whether the British pound is "protection" from global financial meltdowns, or if countries have better control if they have their own currency. That's fairly complex and complicated.
It seems to me the UK needs Scotland more than Scotland needs the UK, but since they've been treated like the "red-headed stepchild" for so long...it's no wonder they might want their independence.
Even if the votes don't lead to Scottish independence.....the political atmosphere for the United Kingdom will be changed, and Scotland will have more consideration and power than its had in the past.
As usual, you're wrong. Losing 10% of their population is far less damaging to Britain than having to start from scratch would be for Scotland. And I don't get where you get the BS about Scotland being mistreated (not in the last century anyway).
Why do you always make things about me being wrong? :confused: Pretty sure Scots are weighing all the pros and cons, including 16 and 17 year olds, and are voting accordingly. BTW, I'm not the one who said Scotland was being mistreated....that came from Scots *who disagreed with British policy*.Quote:
Originally Posted by Loki
Well, it looks like the referendum failed by 9-10%.
It'll be interesting to see if the UK swings more to the left, to accommodate its left-leaning Scots.
Hopefully it doesn't. Turning the UK into a federation seems more appropriate. In the end it wasn't a tight decition but 45% is a large enough number to at least consider some changes to the current system.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/20/up...g-markets.html
Considering there are already Scottish and North Irish parliaments with extensive powers, they're already there.Quote:
Originally Posted by earthJoker
Are you serious? :bored: Has New York turns to the right to accommodate the right-leaning southerners? Do you know a single person who changed their political ideology in response to a political opponent asking for extra stuff?Quote:
Originally Posted by GGT
:picard: Are you really a political scientist?Quote:
Originally Posted by Loki;156338/
You do know that Scotts already had their vote on national (UK) elections? Their votes are already taken into account.Quote:
Originally Posted by GGT
But hey weren't considered Parliamentary equals.
What? :bulb:
Scotts didn't have the parliamentary power they thought was deserved.
That kind of thing can only go so long before activists push for a new model. Leaving a union is usually a last resort. That Scotland got so so close to succession means the UK has some work to do...
And I'd be really irked by the Queen taking vacations at Balmoral Castle.
What do you mean by parliamentary power? The power of Scottish PMs in London or the power of the Scottish parliament?Quote:
Originally Posted by GGT
True, it seems Scotland is not happy with a centralist government. Now tell me, how would a swing to the left solve that problem? Lefties (at least over here) tend to be more centralist than the right wing.Quote:
That kind of thing can only go so long before activists push for a new model. Leaving a union is usually a last resort. That Scotland got so so close to succession means the UK has some work to do...