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Just as the prevalence of pedophilia is not accurately known, the rate of recidivism against a child is also unknown. Recidivism is a term with many definitions, which affect reported rates of repeated offenses. For example, some studies look at additional arrests for any offense, others only look at arrests for sexual crimes, and some only look at convictions, whereas others analyze self-reported reoffenses.31,94,96 The data on recidivism underestimate its rate because many treatment studies do not include treatment dropout figures, cannot calculate the number of repeated offenses that are not reported, and do not use polygraphs to confirm self-reports.96 Another complicating factor is the period during which the data are collected. Some studies report low recidivism rates, but these numbers apply to individuals followed up during periods of active treatment only or for short periods after treatment is terminated (eg, 1-5 years).96,97
The published rates of recidivism are in the range of 10% to 50% for pedophiles depending on their grouping.7,16,17,31,43,94,96-98 Some studies have reported that certain classes of pedophiles (eg, homosexual, nonrelated) have the highest rate for repeated offending compared with other sex offenders.17,99 Generally, homosexual and bisexual pedophiles have higher recidivism rates than heterosexual pedophiles.31,94,98,100 Incest pedophiles generally have the lowest rate of reoffense.98 The more deviant the sexual practices of the offender, the younger the abused child; the more sociopathic or antisocial personality traits displayed, the greater the treatment noncompliance; and the greater the number of paraphilic interests reported by the offender, the higher the likelihood of reoffense.16,91,94,99-102 Several actuarial and self-report tests have been designed to help physicians and law enforcement officers predict which individuals are at higher risk for repeated offense, but currently no single test or combination of tests can accurately identify the future activity of an individual49,91,96,100-110 (Table 5).
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International research
Research on recidivism of sex offenders is far more prevalent in the international literature. In particular,
a number of insightful meta-analyses have shed light on consistent findings over decades of research
using various methodologies and in different countries.
In their 1998 meta-analysis of 61 studies and 28,972 sex offenders, Hanson and Bussière found that
the overall recidivism rate for sexual offences, with an average follow-up period of 4-5 years, was 13.4%
(based on 23,393 offenders). However this rate varied according to the type of offender:
• for child molesters, the sexual offence recidivism rate was 12.7% (based on 9,603 offenders);
and
• for rapists, the sexual offence recidivism rate was 18.9% (based on 1,839 offenders).