And who are they going to vote for in a hypothetical election? Secular socialists? The rabid nationalists? The Kurds? They'll either still vote for the AKP or abstain. And I don't think there are enough of them to make a difference in the election.
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And who are they going to vote for in a hypothetical election? Secular socialists? The rabid nationalists? The Kurds? They'll either still vote for the AKP or abstain. And I don't think there are enough of them to make a difference in the election.
You seem to think Turkey is some sort of Arab country where people have no choice and thus will go with the winner. That is not the case. The reasons why Erdogan got around 50% of the vote at the last elections were that he had succeeded in pushing back the influence of the military (something most people wanted), managed to stimulate the economy (something most people valued), had raised Turkey's status in the region (very much admired by most people) and that he seemed to stand for a moderate conservative government with some islamist touches (something most people could live with). That, combined with the fact that the opposition was in disarray or unelectable gave him the support he had.Quote:
Originally Posted by Loki
Where do we stand now ?
1. Pushing back the military
Many voters no longer percieve the military as a threath to democracy the way they used to.
2. Economy
The Turkish economy is a fairly typical bubble economy that has sustained a good deal of damage over the last few weeks. More damage will follow, and no matter how hard Erdogan tries to put the blame on others, the shine is gone from his economical miracle.
3. Turkish international positition
From the policies of 'zero problems' wandering through the Arab street, Turkey has now arrived at a point where it has even less influence in the middle east than before. With little hope of recovering.
4. Islamism
Not only is he more blatantly islamist than before, he is so in a very autocratic way. It may surprise you, but the vast majority don't want an autocrat to rule over the country.
Last time around the AKP still was the least bad option that people could vote for amongst the parties that could rule. This time it will be one of the worse options, and that will cost them the votes of people who voted for them for lack of better. Even CHP with its backward looking policies looks better today than it did 2 years ago. But many people will simply look for alternatives in the form of parties that didn't make it last time or through independent candidates.
Erdogan has painted himself and his party into a corner, they will still get a substantial percentage of the vote, but it will be significantly less than the 50% they got last time, and this time the opposition will have a common goal before and after the elections; keep Erdogan out of government and out of the presidential palace.
Joking about what? :confused: I used Hazir's post to chide people who tend to see everything in stereo-typical religious terms, particularly in the banking industry. Interest vs special interest. If that was that too heavy for your sarcasm meter....Quote:
Originally Posted by Veldan Rath
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
Cool, now they (AKP) really made things even more fun. Again extreme violence in Taksim by the police and the entire city up in arms.
That's what I've been hearing, too. Are we sure he's not related to Assad?
This is because of Rand. He's an infection in the body-politic. Are we sure he didn't take a vacation in Greece as well?
I shudder to think what will happen in Canada when they move there. Zombie apocalypse? Riots spilling across the border? I think we need a fence.
http://www.economist.com/news/europe...d-be-seriouslyQuote:
Pro-government titles are awash with stories of the roles played by Israel and the Jews. The problem, says an AK insider, “is that the prime minister believes this stuff...”
And more: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/17/wo...pe/turkey.html
He's changing into a Turkish version of Chavez. Too bad for him the numbers don't add up; he's bleeding support on a scale that will reduce his party to a core vote of 35%. A force to reckon with, but an ocean away from the power he needs to shape the state as he sees fit. It would not suprise me if Istanbul would be lost for AKP next year.Quote:
Originally Posted by Loki
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22938860
And now he's threatening to use the army...
Meanwhile in Sensatori Turkey, near Side in Antalya everything is gloriously peaceful. Bit of a heatwave today, lots of sunshine, lots of alcohol and an awesome place to spend a birthday while on Honeymoon. Goodnight from paradise ;)
I hope we don't see you on CNN tomorrow being a hostage of [Generic] Martyr's Brigade. :p
Well this got pretty ugly over the weekend.
You can't make us jealous, temperatures have risen over 30°C (close to 35°) this weekend over here.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
New protests in Taksim square; people (in growing numbers) protest by simply standing still.Quote:
Originally Posted by earthJoker
:up:
Awesome way to protest.
:)Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
60's style sit-ins can be an effective, non-violent way to make a point. Let's hope it doesn't spill into worker sit-downs at hotels, restaurants, or airports. It's Mr. and Mrs. Rand's honeymoon, after all!Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
I can only hope it will bring the entire country to a standstill.Quote:
Originally Posted by GGT
The Padisah thinks he's fooling everybody by bussing in his supporters to a semi-empty square with a 250.000 capacity and call it a million supporters, but of course he's not fooling anybody. His brave supporters weren't even confident enough of their vast superior numbers that they dared wear their party colours away from Kazlicesme. Just to give you an idea of the numbers you have to think in in Istanbul; on any given saturday you will find more people on Istiklal Caddesi than on that party meeting.
Anyway, the newest poll in Todayszaman (an islamist owned newspaper) shows that only 35% of Turks still would vote for AKP and that a majority of thinks that there should be no presidential system and that the Padisah would not be fit to be President. His regime is on the way out, it's no longer a question of if but when.
I heard the same about Assad before and see where we are now.
Assad has a loyal army. The loyalists of Erdogan are old people who long back to the old times before the republic.Quote:
Originally Posted by earthJoker
Hazir, I think you vastly underestimate the amount of support Erdogan has.
Which is why several countries have been accused or caught planting members of their forces inside rallies to stir up trouble. They need something to justify a reaction.Quote:
Originally Posted by GGT
I do not, but 35% core vote is not enough to rule the country in the autocratic style he does. Even his '50%' is merely 42% of the actual electorate. I think his behaviour will lose AKP Istanbul in the upcoming local elections, and once Istanbul is lost, Erdogan is out. The AKP will not want to go down with him and will replace him with a leader who's less controversial in Turkey. One of the likely candidates would be Abdullah Gül. Who also happens to be the candidate of choice for the Gülenites.Quote:
Originally Posted by wiggin
Assad also had 'loyalty' from Russia.Quote:
Originally Posted by earthJoker
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
Any opinion poll at a time like this is meaningless. People get either too scared/embarrassed to tell another person they support the government or conversely too scared/embarrassed not to. Online polls lose that affect somewhat but have their own issues.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
Been here 6 days now (of 14) and unlike our week in Egypt where the locals were clearly concerned, not heard this mentioned even once by even a single person - local or tourist.
You miss, like most people would the place where this opinion poll is published. It is a given in Turkey that you can' t trust figures at face value, especially not if they are figures in an opinion poll. However, the opinion poll I was quoting from is seen as highly damaging to Erdogan (because it tells us that the general public disapproves of him and his style of government) AND it was published in a newspaper which is part of the Fetullah Gulen empire, which is a big chunk of the power base of Erdogan. It is widely percieved as a coming out in favour of moderation by Fetullah Gulen. If he (Gulen) continues along the lines he has recently Erdogan will find a considerable part of his party will have no qualms about switching their loyalty to a candidate who has the full support of Gulen. President Abdullah Gul at the moment is the most likely alternative.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
The one reason we should call this a mere shot before the bow is that the poll was published in the English language version of Zaman (where it still attracted a lot of attention) rather than in the Turkish edition. Once the latter starts explaining us the weaknesses of Erdogan in quite the same way his career is over.
Two small pin pricks for Erdogan today from the Gulen HQ; it was not a good idea to name the 3rd Bosphorus bridge after Sultan Selim Yavuz and Alevi Cem evis should no longer be in a disadvantaged position compared to sunni mosques. That was after Gulen giving a big interview at the height of the crisis saying that the voices of the protesters should be heard.
I didn't want to suggest that the situation are similar, it's the prediction that is similar.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
Eh, no. Turkey is not a dictature. It has elections that by and large are fair and free. Also, the AKP is a party with the ability to rid itself of its leader if it wants, and its members do at least not have to fear for their lives if they attempt to do so. To predict that a man like Erdogan will be out of power in a year or so is entirely different than predicting that a dictator actually willing to bomb his own citizens will be ousted.Quote:
Originally Posted by earthJoker
Who are Turkey's enemies? Besides Kurds opposed to the righteous persecution by the majority?
Jews. Possibly Americans.
Nice to see a healthy skepticism of "public opinion polls". :up:
Photos splashed across the intarweb are a bit different, though. That picture of a lone woman (who didn't seem to be part of the protests) being pepper-sprayed at point-blank range was rather disturbing. Regardless of who's protesting or why, that picture resonates as police brutality....and puts a mark on 'authorities' and its political leaders.
Yeah, far more disturbing than the half dozen killed and thousands injured.
My point was that public protests can escalate into riots, depending on how Police respond. Any hint of police brutality can fuel a fire.Quote:
Originally Posted by Loki
What was your point?
It wasn't just police brutality. Some of those brutal Acts were actual crimes.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23474404 Erdogan tops himself. Seriously, what is wrong with that man?
Yeah but its hard not to feel that someone opposed by Sean Penn, Susan Sarandon etc must be doing something right ;)
Nothing a quick trip to Cuba or North Korea can't fix.
http://news.yahoo.com/turkey-capture...141627495.html
Schizophrenia seems to be a national pastime...
By that yardstick, Hitler must've done something right. :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade