Actually the headline should read ; 'everybody loses'
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Actually the headline should read ; 'everybody loses'
Those exit polls :eek:
Have you ever read the Daily Mail?Quote:
Originally Posted by GGT
Yes Con+LD=326 - overall majority, and a majority of 7 with Sinn Fein not taking seats.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
Though more likely Con minority government on those figures. They'll have a landslide victory in England for England-only votes (I don't see the 58 SNP turning up for those votes realistically) and can work with a very divided opposition bench on an issue by issue basis.
Or the Mirror LOL. There's no impartial papers in the UK - though the one mega surprise of the paper endorsements was the Independent (a quite left-wing paper) supporting the coalition.Quote:
Originally Posted by Unheard Of
The exit polls seem wildly off base.
Exit poll or opinion polls?
The exit polls have a far better track record than opinion polls do - but of course its far, far too early to say.
EDIT: There's only been one exit poll. YouGov have released a panel poll.
1% rise in Sterling on the markets following the exit poll.
Exit polls. I don't buy the SNP getting 58 and the Lib Dems 10.
I dunno Loki, it's possible the opinion polls got the popular vote correct but the exit polls are more accurately predicting the way the actual seats fall, because the exit poll is conducted at constituency level.
A lot of those seats are on a knife-edge, very small shifts in the popular vote can produce dramatic shifts in one direction or another.
Because, you know, our electoral system is fucking stupid.
You think it's conceivable that the SNP got all but 1 seat in Scotland?
Yes, I think that is conceivable.Quote:
Originally Posted by Loki
Ah. This actually matches the opinion polls. Lib Dems would expect more incumbency support but their support has collapsed, while the SNP have reached a tipping point where a landslide is entirely possible.Quote:
Originally Posted by Loki
Our electoral system has been resoundingly endorsed tonight if this is right.Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Glint
The last few years has seen the rise of extremist, nationalist, racist and almost neo-Nazi parties all over Europe. Tonight the UK looks like returning two UKIP MPs (if that) and zero BNP MPs. In fact it looks like the BNP is dead and buried. Look across the continent and name a single system that works better than that.
I wish these fucking pundits would stop wasting breath asking politicians provocative questions that they're obviously not going to answer.
They have to fill the time with something I suppose. I'm out and we're switching between BBC and Sky, my wife's at home watching Channel 4's coverage which is much more comedic. She's saying that's very good.
The exit poll could be wrong, we could have a Tory absolute majority. Maybe, just maybe.
Nuneaton the first Labour target (38 on the list) to declare has seen a 3% swing from Labour to Tory. This is shocking, that's a seat I'd expected us to lose.
Is it just me or are Lib Dem voters defecting to UKIP? :noob: If you look at the margins in the areas that have reported, the two numbers are almost symmetrical.
I've been saying for years on a UK politics blog that was the case. The LD's were a safe protest party that were neither of the above. By joining the government the LD's lost the protest votes and UKIP stepped into the void.
Also, UKIP is the only national party. They managed to get at least 5% in one constituency in all four parts of the UK. :o
Edit: nevermind, no Scotland.
Wow the SNP 58 could underestimate them too! First seat has just declared with a 26% swing to SNP - up from 12k to 30k ... utterly incredible. On that swing they'll gain all 59.
EDIT: LOL, though we work on first past the post not 5% thankfully. Surprised they got one past 5% in Northern Ireland.
Bye, bye Dougie. Shadow Foreign Secretary that I highlighted has been defeated by a 20 year old university student as I posted above. 27% swing
So much of Labour's intellectual leadership has come from Scotland that this is a body blow for them. Many of those going tonight could have been a future Labour leader and potential PM like Brown. As a partisan, good riddance to them.
What incentive does Labour now have to oppose Scottish independence? It looks like the SNP ended the West Lothian question in one election.
As of now, UKIP has 15% of the Welsh vote by the way. Amusing that the Welsh and North Irish are much better at counting votes than the English.
Edit: 3/4 of Welsh seats, 2/3 of Scottish and Irish seats declared; 20% of English seats. What's wrong with the English?
English seats have a lot more voters in them, upto 100k in some seats versus 60k in many Welsh ones. Plus the English have been voting for local Council elections today, as well as for the General Election ... I got two ballot papers today, both go into same box and then need to be separated.
Plus rural English seats always take longer.
Unsurprisingly, the SNP predictions were off. The Lib Dems do seem on track to do as badly as predicted though.
Not that far off. 55/59 is pretty close to 58/59
My local MP, the Lib Dem stalwart Vince Cable, has fallen to a Tory swing in Twickenham.
http://undergroundmgzn.com/wp/wp-con...ll-results.jpg
Nige only has Clacton so far, and hope it stays that way.
Clacton was far closer than I think anyone predicted - I think he'll lose next time and I think we've seen the very last of Con->UKIP defectors if not the utter death of UKIP. Mark "Traitorous Pig Dog" Reckless losing is brilliant, just have to hope Thanet South is saved and we see the back of Farage for good.
Locally, we won Warrington South. Shock result nobody would have expected at the start of the night. It was a three-way marginal last time and even on the exit poll was a Labour seat ... in fact it was won on an increased Conservative majority. David Mowat MP has done a great job for Warrington and I'm glad my neighbours have returned him to Parliament.
Confirmation tonight as to why FPTP is the best electoral system. Either 1 or 2 UKIP MPs, 0 Respect, 0 BNP ... that is a Parliament I respect. Farage could have been holding the balance of power under PR as extremists are all over Europe ... we should not cave in to extremists.
Balls out!
Yep just heard .... :)
edit:
Morley & Outwood
Cons 18,776 - 38.9%
Balls 18,354 - 38.0%
Close!
Labour have lost both their Shadow Foreign Secretary and Shadow Chancellor. Wonder if that has ever happened before?
What makes you think that is a good thing ? UKIP has more voters than SNP and LibDem's combined. Yet they have only 1 seat where the SNP and LibDems have 64.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
Because on average 87.5% did not want a UKIP MP to represent them in Parliament. On average virtually every Scottish constituency wanted the SNP. They're getting their wish.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
Every representative in the country will be the most popular local MP and we don't hand away the responsibility of running the country to the least popular fringes. FPTP working as designed.
Conservatives 318 and counting, Conservative majority nailed on as safe seats (on current non-existent swing) alone now takes us to 326. An overall majority when supposedly there were no paths to victory for the Tories.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEeKKHvWIAA_B0u.jpg:large
Thanet South stays Tory, buh-bye Nige, no parliamentary cookies for you :)
http://d.ibtimes.co.uk/en/full/370931/nigel-farage.jpg
Farage has resigned, but may stand again in the leadership election. No, just piss off.
Farage "gone", but Clegg and Milliband gone gone.
Looks like we saw a repeat of '92, voters telling pollsters one thing then doing something else in the ballot box. Perhaps some on the left would like to reflect on the futility of trying to shame, rather than persuade, people away from voting Tory when we have a secret ballot. No? Ok then.
Cameron has a tough five years ahead of him.
Well said. A lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth tonight on Facebook. Aww, poor dears.
I heard earlier over 41% in England have voted Conservative. Not sure if that will be the final figure, but its a great result if so.
Someone pointed out that the polls have systematically underestimated support for center-right parties in half a dozen different countries in the last few years. I doubt people are lying. The pollsters are taking unrepresentative samples.Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Glint
http://fivethirtyeight.com/liveblogs...pdate-12918846
There's also the problem of the "uniform swing". I'm not sure how well that worked out there.
Well with the final seats in, the exit poll is looking reasonably good and far better than the opinion polls.
This article published just before the election suggests there's been a bias against the Tories in the opinion polls in every poll against real results in the last two years:
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/wp-content/...05/big-bye.jpg
And ten of the last 12 elections:
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/wp-content/...ig-labcon2.jpg
The opinion polls called this election horribly wrong, just like in 1992. Its going to cause an autopsy afterwards. However it's not like the polls were actually accurate in 97 or 01 either, its just that "landslide" instead of "even bigger landslide" isn't news, while "Tie" versus "Tory majority" is.
Ugh
Electoral reform should be a priority for the Cameron government, both switching to PR and also moving the election day to a Friday so when I stay up to watch the results I don't have to go to work the next day.