Out of curiosity is there anything particular about either Germany or AfD that makes you think that AfD will "defeat itself" rather than be strengthened by the success of British Euroskeptics?Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
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Out of curiosity is there anything particular about either Germany or AfD that makes you think that AfD will "defeat itself" rather than be strengthened by the success of British Euroskeptics?Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
What gives me that idea is that they are already tearing themselves up over whether or not anti-semitism is an acceptable ideology. I didn't follow it too closely, but if I understand latest developements correctly the parliamentary party has split down the middle already in Baden-Wurtemberg.Quote:
Originally Posted by Aimless
To me it looks like sanitization done for show, in principle similar to the official Leave campaign keeping Farage at a distance and almost identical to the purging of the most blatantly racist and disgusting politicians in the Sweden Democrats that occurred not too long ago as a part of the party's plan to increase its mainstream appeal while minimizing the danger presented by incompetence and idiocy in its ranks. They've been beset by scandals and resignations and firings and criminal investigations etc. but they seem immune to all such problems and their support remains strong. The only thing that seems to have dented their support is the sudden caramelization of mainstream party policies.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
Moreover, this may be cast as an anti-Semitism issue, but it can also be cast as a matter of freedom of expression, which makes things more complicated. There are members of this forum who would support the view that Holocaust-denialism should not be a criminal offense.
The politicians who've resigned can be replaced if necessary.
Is there anything to suggest that AfD's current supporters won't continue to support AfD in the next election? Do they have a better alternative to vote for?
May said any agreement for Europeans to remain in the UK would have to be reciprocal with an agreement for Brits to remain in Europe.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
Her political opponents say that these are people not bargaining chips.
Both are correct. May was tactless, her point was accurate but it didn't need making that way. That's why I don't like her very much.
AfD support does not seem to be falling off a cliff. At least the FDP currently seem like they will return to the Bundestag.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...7_Election.png
The next Bundestag election is only going to be interesting if CDU/CSU + SPD fall under 50%. And even then, it is unlikely that Merkel won't be the new Chancellor.
I don't know about better but they seem to be fishing in the same murky waters Die Linke is fishing in. That's the fun of politics these days, extreme right and extreme left actually overlap quite a bit.Quote:
Originally Posted by Aimless
It's hard to tell if there will be issues that fire up protest voters next year. It seems like there is no acute crisis, but if the Turkey deal blows up, or Italy blackmails Europe into some scheme to save its banking sector I don't know what will happen.
We have a bit more experience with that kind of parties in Holland, and that experience tells me that they're quite efficient at tearing themselves apart if there isn't a hate-object of sufficient freshness.
Why single out experiences of the Netherlands? We got this kind of parties all over Europe. Some have fallen apart, some are still around. It is pretty much unpredictable what will happen, also because the outcome might depend on the good or bad decisions of a few party leaders.
And good and bad decisions of the other parties, the government, and loads of other factors.
I'm also uncertain as to whether or not these parties really are best compared to the lunatic fringe. As long as the EU exists, as long as there are Muslims, as long as there is immigration and as long as there is a global economy, there will be something to motivate and mobilize the EU's conservative nationalist protectionist xenophobes and racists.
I didn't single out the Netherlands but we have gone through a couple of these parties already. Otherwise of course what will happen is unpredictable because you can't predict the level of anger.Quote:
Originally Posted by earthJoker
I think you ignore the two facts that the CDU has moved considerably to the left and the FDP has disappeared. That means moderate right wing Germans (with the exception of Bavarians) have to decide if they want to vote for a CDU that is too left or an AfD that is too right for them. Well actually as Germans have two votes, it could be very likely that they put the 1st vote to CDU and the second to AfD.
That is merely a wider picture that I didn't take into account. Because my focus was on the capacity of this type of party to tear itself apart.Quote:
Originally Posted by earthJoker
Any kind of party can tear itself apart. See Republicans, Labour, Torries. That's a tautology.
We are the King's of tearing ourselves apart.
How many MPs defected from the CP this parliament?Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
Our populists got us 2 extra factions just in the present parliament. Where a defection is uncommon with the established parties I came to see them as standard with the populists.
It's not like it doesn't happen with the bigger parties, though a bit more rare. We also have fractions coming from PvdA and VVD right now after all. But since the parties are bigger it's less of an issue.
Nothing can beat the spectacular self destruction of the LPF though :p I think it's rare that it's accompanied with (threats of) violence!
LOL true, maybe only from a British perspective are we kings of it. We stay in one party and don't stab each other in the back, but stab each other in the front and then continue like nothing has happened.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
Not comparable. Because of the majority voting system, it's better to create a sub-group within one of the major parties (Tea Party).Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
We got two splits recently of well established parties, the SVP (spin off BDP) and the Greens (spin off glp).
The thing with populist parties here is that they grew quickly and had (very) bad candidates as a result and no internal mechanisms to vet or select people, which is why the LPF imploded after Fortuyn was murdered. And with Wilders.. his party isn't a party, really. So no internal mechanisms either, Wilders is essentially the dictator of the party and the other 'members' were just allowed to follow whatever he decided, which caused obvious problems. The more established parties tend to settle their problems during conventions etc.
As I have some experience in active party work I can tell you, even a moderate party will attract suspicious people that have strange opinions. You have mechanisms to throw them out but it's always a headache. These kind of people are usually very narcissistic and have problems with self reflection. They will do anything to prove the other members that they are correct, and they just need to understand his position. And as soon as someone like this holds a seat, he finds himself in the right, as he was voted by "the people".
But at least you have mechanism to kick then out or keep them from electable positions, over here it was more of a 'we need to fill the seats so we'll take anyone', and that didn't work out well. With the bigger parties that tends to happen more at the local than the national level.
That mechanism are not easy. And the party always gets bad attention in the process of kicking someone out.