47th President of the USA : D. J. Trump

What we are witnessing is the death of American Democracy. The SCOTUS just laid the last piece in place - when president Trump starts arresting Democratic Party officials and big donors, he's got that ruling to hide behind - official acts to safeguard future elections, to root out corruption and insipient socialism from America. You guys in Europe better be figuring out how you're going to deal with Putin without US help. Hell, Trump may decide to help Putin directly and there is nothing anyone's going to do about it here. We all better get ready for the horrors.

Biden should take this opportunity to declare himself President for Life.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...rris-cnn-poll/

So much for the debate affecting public opinion.

I wonder how much the perception of Biden being cast aside by the Democratic Party (assuming it happens) over his age is going to affect his successor's standing with elderly voters.

Just tell them he's still the nominee.

Even though I have previous argued the case for replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee for the 2024 election, and still believe he should be, I am choosing to believe that was a bit.

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Originally Posted by Aimless

Hang on, does single occasion debate performance ever influence elections?

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Hang on, what makes the debate so special is it's not JUST the debate. That's an 81 year old man who is clearly in decline. He shouldn't be the candidate.

It would be nice if he just took the win of beating Trump the first time and whatever accomplishments he's had and gracefully stepped aside, welcoming whoever the new candidate is. Fighting like he is just makes it all worse.

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Originally Posted by Loki

I wonder how much the perception of Biden being cast aside by the Democratic Party (assuming it happens) over his age is going to affect his successor's standing with elderly voters.

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Every 80 something I know, and there's a few, are all Trump supporters. And they all know what its like to be 80 something and they don't think Biden is capable of being president. In fact, I heard discussion just a few hours ago about who is really the president. My Trumper family all think Obama's telling Biden what to do, or we have a rudder-less executive branch, or whatever the hell else the right wing propaganda machine is spewing.

Looks to me like the 47th President of the USA will be Kamala Harris.

I've seen a lot of contradictory information, but Biden is doing much better than you'd expect with older voters: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/0...ction-00150923

The only hot air old folks like is in the Sunbelt. And Trump is 90% hot air.

Lol if only dread had donated more

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog...ads-in-florida

Anyone betting on Kalshi? Now that?s it?s legal some of these election bets seem like no brainers. Can get 11% return on my money betting that Trump takes Texas. Am really not seeing the downside here.

Other bets being considered:

Harris winning popular vote (30% gain)

Ted Cruz winning senate seat (25% gain).

Money is tied up until early Jan when election is certified but that beats my 4.5% annual interest rate (so less than 1% between now and Jan) I have in RH.

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Meanwhile, Trump is still on pace to get ~40% of the Hispanic vote.

This is election is so weird, it's like nothing he says or does effects the polls in any way.

Another example: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0r8edwj9wlo

He knows Trump will bankrupt him; supports him anyway.

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Originally Posted by Steely Glint

This is election is so weird, it's like nothing he says or does effects the polls in any way.

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Polls could be borked. Could be that the Nazism - like the criminality, the unmatched incompetence, the unbelievably stupid universally panned economic policies, etc - is already "priced in". His supporters are already completely trapped in info bubbles, so they could be unaware of all this shit - Fox and the Christian sex-pervert news network system have been very, very careful to never expose viewers to an unsanitized Trump. And, let's face it - do we expect creepy fuckwits to change their minds about Trump at this very late stage?

The election is weird, but, above all, the electorate is weird. We won't know exactly how weird until it's done I guess.

He's barely coherent. At least as bad as Biden, if not worse. He just shuts down and stops talking at rallies sometimes. It doesn't matter what you political opinions are, that's universally got to be a seen as a bad thing in a candidate. Also, he is retaining pretty much the full Republican voter set - I know I'm usually the one saying 'there's no such thing as a sensible Republican' but there are degrees, they're not all MAGA cultists.

Sensible Republicans have long stopped being Republicans. The people who still identify as Republicans are exactly who'd you expect.

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Originally Posted by Lewkowski

Anyone betting on Kalshi? Now that?s it?s legal some of these election bets seem like no brainers. Can get 11% return on my money betting that Trump takes Texas. Am really not seeing the downside here.

Other bets being considered:

Harris winning popular vote (30% gain)

Ted Cruz winning senate seat (25% gain).

Money is tied up until early Jan when election is certified but that beats my 4.5% annual interest rate (so less than 1% between now and Jan) I have in RH.

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FYI, there are huge arbitrage opportunities because the people betting that Trump will win certain states aren't betting that Republicans will take Senate seats in the same states. I.e., they're assuming the polls are underestimating Trump's support but not underestimating the support of other Republicans.

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Originally Posted by Loki

Sensible Republicans have long stopped being Republicans. The people who still identify as Republicans are exactly who'd you expect.

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According to polls, he's doing about the same numbers as Romney did in 2012.

There's a large number of low-education folks who lost their minds over Covid vaccines and restrictions and became hard-core Republicans. See Joe Rogan.

He did about the same as Romney in 2016 and 2020 as well, who did about the same as McCain, who did about the same as Bush in 2000. Except for the war-president outlier in 2004, Republicans have consistently polled 46-48% of the vote in presidential elections for the better part of three decades now. Except they've never had a candidate, or a campaign, quite this bad before.

Biden was up by 7% in 2020.
Clinton was up by 3% in 2016.

Harris is up by 1-2% and recent polls have been trending in the wrong direction.

One of the mistakes of the Harris camp (not necessarily campaign) was the pedantic way we were told how to pronounce her first name. And how it was declared borderline racist to get it wrong.

And that coming from someone who will make a point of pronouncing people's names correctly.

Looks like Trump won. Proving once again that things can always get worse.

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Originally Posted by Loki

Looks like Trump won. Proving once again that things can always get worse.

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I'm not very surprised. Let's hope by 2028 there will be a better choice.

It's telling that you like a guy who has no moral or political compass. He went from supporting trans rights and thinking Trump is a fascist to the exact opposite in the span of a few years.

But hey, he does own the libs and that's what really matters.

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Originally Posted by Loki

It's telling that you like a guy who has no moral or political compass. He went from supporting trans rights and thinking Trump is a fascist to the exact opposite in the span of a few years.

But hey, he does own the libs and that's what really matters.

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He doesn't even own the libs, lewk is just drawn to creeps who mistreat their families and invest in crypto

We love crypto. Sadly I lost a bit of money betting on Harris winning popular vote. Holy shit in hindsight what a shitty candidate!

I?ll just have to be happy with Rs having the presidency, senate, and house. And a conservative Supreme Court. Life is looking pretty good!

Hopefully Trump follows through and begins an Elon driven war on the federal bureaucracy! Slash government jobs and get more money into the hands of the private sector and the people.

Is your goal for the federal government to lose 3/4 of its value in a year, like Twitter?

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Originally Posted by Lewkowski

We love crypto. Sadly I lost a bit of money betting on Harris winning popular vote. Holy shit in hindsight what a shitty candidate!

I?ll just have to be happy with Rs having the presidency, senate, and house. And a conservative Supreme Court. Life is looking pretty good!

Hopefully Trump follows through and begins an Elon driven war on the federal bureaucracy! Slash government jobs and get more money into the hands of the private sector and the people.

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The issue I have with your triumphalism is that it's kind of not the American way to put all power in the same hands.

It's also grating to see liberal commenters talking as if Harris could have won if only she'd have stabbed Israel in the back. I guess those commentators didn't look at the number of votes Stein with her open antisemitic approach got. To me it seems rather that you can't win elections in the US with an agenda of supporting terrorists. Not even if those terrorists are faking being victims of war crimes and genocide.

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Originally Posted by Loki

Is your goal for the federal government to lose 3/4 of its value in a year, like Twitter?

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This is how you try to convince a libertarian extremist?

Let's be honest here: the effect of the Gaza War was minimal. It cost the Democrats maybe 50k votes in Michigan. People weren't voting on the issues. Changing issue positions would make no difference.

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Originally Posted by Loki

Let's be honest here: the effect of the Gaza War was minimal. It cost the Democrats maybe 50k votes in Michigan. People weren't voting on the issues. Changing issue positions would make no difference.

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Haven't seen any remotely serious person suggesting the genocide made the difference once the results started coming in. Some weirdo loyalists are mad they won't get a chance to blame Arab Americans for pervasive white American social dysfunction I guess

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Originally Posted by Loki

Let's be honest here: the effect of the Gaza War was minimal. It cost the Democrats maybe 50k votes in Michigan. People weren't voting on the issues. Changing issue positions would make no difference.

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Exactly, American voters consider it a non-issue. They didn't fall for the terrorist propaganda spread by the anti-semite left and some people on this board. By and large Americans expect their government to act if they are attacked. There's no reason to think they'd see this different for a close ally like Israel.

Which makes me wonder about how much more freedom Israel will have once Trump is back in the White House.

There?s always risk when concentrating power. But there is so much to be done. A few things that can have long lasting impact:

1. Look to vigorously enforce meritocracy and go after university endowments when they continue to be racist toward Asians and whites. These academic liberals will never simply admit on merit and instead look to hide their blatant racism. Sic the DOJ on them and go after the endowments - change whatever laws you need to in order to make sure judgments can hit those endowments.

2. End the federal cushy job nonsense. It shouldn?t be possible to have less than 1% of your labor force canned each year. Get Elon in there to trim the fat and make sure people have to perform to keep their jobs.

3. School choice will fix education and potentially crush the teacher?s union.

4. No more free ride for other countries. You want America to deter other countries $$ pay up. This will actually force Europe to get up off their ass and spend less money on welfare programs and more on military. Absolutely batshit insane that the EU has nearly 10x Russia?s GDP and can?t fund Ukraine?s defense on their own backs without America?s involvement. Note: I do support helping Ukraine but we need to make Europe pay for everything by that isn?t surplus/used military equipment.

5. Keep reshaping the judiciary. I like Thomas but dude needs to retire and not pull a Ginsberg.

So yeah - concentrated power has risks but it?s the only way to make traction at times. I just hope Vance, Vivek, and Elon can guide Trump to a good path and that RFK has minimal influence, cus holy fk that guy is nuts.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/79-of-...ary-exit-poll/

Incidentally, all the faux-outrage at Democrats for not being sufficiently supportive of Israel had 0 impact on Jewish support for the Democratic Party.

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Originally Posted by Lewkowski

There?s always risk when concentrating power. But there is so much to be done. A few things that can have long lasting impact:

1. Look to vigorously enforce meritocracy and go after university endowments when they continue to be racist toward Asians and whites. These academic liberals will never simply admit on merit and instead look to hide their blatant racism. Sic the DOJ on them and go after the endowments - change whatever laws you need to in order to make sure judgments can hit those endowments.

2. End the federal cushy job nonsense. It shouldn?t be possible to have less than 1% of your labor force canned each year. Get Elon in there to trim the fat and make sure people have to perform to keep their jobs.

3. School choice will fix education and potentially crush the teacher?s union.

4. No more free ride for other countries. You want America to deter other countries $$ pay up. This will actually force Europe to get up off their ass and spend less money on welfare programs and more on military. Absolutely batshit insane that the EU has nearly 10x Russia?s GDP and can?t fund Ukraine?s defense on their own backs without America?s involvement. Note: I do support helping Ukraine but we need to make Europe pay for everything by that isn?t surplus/used military equipment.

5. Keep reshaping the judiciary. I like Thomas but dude needs to retire and not pull a Ginsberg.

So yeah - concentrated power has risks but it?s the only way to make traction at times. I just hope Vance, Vivek, and Elon can guide Trump to a good path and that RFK has minimal influence, cus holy fk that guy is nuts.

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1. This is simply government intervention with a different goal. What about government budding out altogether ?
2. There are some serious risks to run government as a business. In the end you still want the country to function and often seemingly wasteful solutions are the most economical. Throwing out people who treat their real paymasters out should be easier. But linking that to party affiliation is begging for a corrupt system.
3. Nothing wrong with freedom of choice. Don?t know if it?s a panacea, but it could help. Thought I don?t particularly like the idea of madrassa type indoctrination centers.
4. Yes. Other side of the medal is that those countries may attach things that are not so great for the USA. E.G. if the EU jacks up defense spending US producers may end up with a smaller market. Tread wisely I say.
5. Those judges sit too long. But what?s worse is that you seem to want activists judges. I?m not fond of a partisan judiciary.

I?m impressed with what Musk achieved. I?m not certain if he?s fit to be in government. Last time I checked America prides itself in its rejection of tyranny. A leader on the spectrum may not be the best choice to build the coalition that?s needed to ?make America great again?.

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Originally Posted by Loki

https://www.timesofisrael.com/79-of-...ary-exit-poll/

Incidentally, all the faux-outrage at Democrats for not being sufficiently supportive of Israel had 0 impact on Jewish support for the Democratic Party.

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No need to single that out. Gaza wasn’t relevant at all. It’s just in the news because Hamas has efficient propaganda.