Originally Posted by
Loki
Well yes. Let's put it like this. There's a 80% chance the stock goes to $40, and a 20% it plummets to $10 (I made up the numbers) due to some of the pessimistic scenarios. In expectation, the price is $34. Then you discount the future, if we're expecting that price in a year or two, and you should be down a few dollars from that. Not saying those numbers are accurate, but the point is that even though most people expect the stock to do well with a fairly high probability, it's the cost of the unknown that causes it to fall.