To absolutely no-one's surprise, organisations representing German and French industries, including auto-makers, have rejected in the strongest terms BoJo's delusional claims and made it clear that they expect their representatives to play hardball.
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To absolutely no-one's surprise, organisations representing German and French industries, including auto-makers, have rejected in the strongest terms BoJo's delusional claims and made it clear that they expect their representatives to play hardball.
Further, in a blow to democracy in Britain, BoJo may not call for a new election if he's picked to be Cameron's successor :o
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...-bid-liz-truss
Seeking a mandate at a General Election after a party leadership election is direct democracy now?Quote:
Originally Posted by Loki
How's it a blow? We're barely over a year into a five year term.Quote:
Originally Posted by Aimless
If democracy requires a new general election to establish the government's mandate to negotiate for a specific deal and BoJo says he won't call for an election of he's elected leader before he goes to negotiate such a deal then that would of course be a blow to democracy.
Better men than BoJo have been elected leader after a PM resigned and failed to call a General, so that shouldn't come as a shock.
Still, a referendum with an outcome so tight to be the basis for the sitting parliament to decide to actually take the UK out of the EU. It seems just not right.Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Glint
Vodafone is considering leaving.
A moment ago you seemed to be against the idea of waiting until after a GE, now you seem upset for there not to be a GE.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
Some new PMs choose a swift early vote, most don't. Under the fixed term parliament act this is supposed to be moot but never was going to be.
Hey Rand, if a general election is called and a pro eu party wins a majority, does that by your reasoning mean the whole leaving should be cancelled?
Effectively yes. Realistically that would be very awkward.
Considering the Bregret feelings some have that might become a very interesting election, then. And worst case you end up electing parties just on their European platform, which is fine for the negotiations etc., but might not be what you want for, you know, actually governing the country in other matters.
I highly doubt there is any significant amount of people who Breget their vote. Instead the Leave votes were correct, they were Bright ;).
If there were a second referendum tomorrow I suspect it will go the way of the Winchester by election 1997.
The result has been decided now we need to move on.
As a EU citizen I want you out yesterday, because your side will no doubt abuse every extra time for more mischief.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
On a more general principle I find the margin on which this decision would be taken rather small if it is just the referendum.
EasyJet considering to leave.
Oops, it's fifth again. Still doesn't matter Rand ?
The city of Amsterdam is setting up a Brexit-desk for the 14.000 Brits living in the city about the effects the departure of the UK from the EU could have for their personal lives.
No it didn't then it doesn't now. The point is we are a very large global economy, one of the largest. Apart from a pissing contest we've regularly been swapping places with France in recent years, long-term we are and should be bigger and better but that's like swapping places back and forth in a football league mid season, it may be fun to speculate on but doesn't really matter so long as there's not a big swing one way or the other.
ECB has started up the process to repatriate the clearing of euro-denominated trading.
That'd be illegal at present and probably illegal if we end in the EEA.
Financial services are not an automatic part of any such deal as far as I know. I'm certain Switzerland hasn't passporting rights, and I guess neither does Norway.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
I said they are preparing it, and legal/illegal is kind of moot soon.
Switzerland isn't in the EEA. Norway does as passporting is part of the EEA: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/pra/P...g/default.aspx
All right brain-trust:
- When will the UK trigger article 50?
- will the UK join the EFTA? When?
- will the UK join the EEA?
- will it be allowed to restrict the free movement of people?
- when will the EEA-deal be concluded or at least get close enough to conclusion that it can be taken as a sure thing?
- will there be an extension of the withdrawal-process beyond the mandated 2 years from the triggering of article 50?
- will any banks or other major companies relocate a substantial portion of their business to some other country? Which country?
- Will the UK enact especially business-friendly legislation in the upcoming months in order to persuade these companies to stay? What legislation?
- Will the EU successfully conclude a FTA with the US before the UK withdraws from the EU?
- Will the NHS get adequate funding?
- WHat will happen to EU citizens living in the UK and British citizens living in the EU?
Pick and choose as you please
- When will the UK trigger article 50?
Sooner rather than later. Before Cam steps down.
- will the UK join the EFTA? When?
- will the UK join the EEA?
- will it be allowed to restrict the free movement of people?
not if it is allowed entry to EFTA.
As Juncker said yesterday, there is no รก la carte.
I suspect this will be a negotiation sticking point.
- when will the EEA-deal be concluded or at least get close enough to conclusion that it can be taken as a sure thing?
- will there be an extension of the withdrawal-process beyond the mandated 2 years from the triggering of article 50?
no
- will any banks or other major companies relocate a substantial portion of their business to some other country? Which country?
Major companies, yes. Both Vodafone and easyjet, two firms whose business relies heavily on Europe, have both already expressed the possibility/likelihood. Though much depends on access to the Single Market.
UK-headquartered Banks, very unlikely, though I would expect a substantial reduction in UK footprint if the passport is not granted. Some reduction regardless for operations such as Euro-clearing and European trades, as already mooted by HSBC
Non-UK Banks who have based their EU operation in London, again a lot depends on the passport. No passport, London-based non-UK banks like JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs or Citi, would likely re-centre out of London.
Paris and Frankfurt have already made explicit overtures to London FIs post-Brexit. Dublin to a lesser extent.
- Will the UK enact especially business-friendly legislation in the upcoming months in order to persuade these companies to stay? What legislation?
Beyond easing measures (some already proposed) by the BoE, no
- Will the EU successfully conclude a FTA with the US before the UK withdraws from the EU?
- Will the NHS get adequate funding?
- WHat will happen to EU citizens living in the UK and British citizens living in the EU?
Little, though visa status may change
I found it really funny how The Telegraph distilled from the words of the French minister of finance that they could get restrictions on immigration but forgot at which price that would come. The short version of that price would be 'The City'.
Is there a critical time-period within which banks etc. need to be fully persuaded that EEA-membership is forthcoming in order to not move much of their operations to other European cities?
I don't think you could pin an exact date to it now, but once article 50 has been triggered, the UK side probably will have to start talking like the junior partner they are going to be or the first banks will start moving well before the EU is outside.Quote:
Originally Posted by Aimless
On the upside; they may not need that third runway for Heathrow after all.
- When will the UK trigger article 50?
After the Tories have a new PM, before a new GE (which I don't think will be called)
- will the UK join the EFTA? When?
Yes. Probably as part of the exiting negotiations.
- will the UK join the EEA?
Uncertain. It depends
- will it be allowed to restrict the free movement of people?
Yes if it's in the EFTA via bilateral agreement, no if it joins the EEA as well.
- when will the EEA-deal be concluded or at least get close enough to conclusion that it can be taken as a sure thing?
Answer hazy, ask again later
- will there be an extension of the withdrawal-process beyond the mandated 2 years from the triggering of article 50?
I doubt it, but would also not be surprised if there was one. Depends on how negotiations go and how all parties are feeling in two years time.
- will any banks or other major companies relocate a substantial portion of their business to some other country? Which country?
Answer hazy, ask again alter.
- Will the UK enact especially business-friendly legislation in the upcoming months in order to persuade these companies to stay? What legislation?
Unlikely, since Cameron has already said he's resigning.
- Will the EU successfully conclude a FTA with the US before the UK withdraws from the EU?
No.
- Will the NHS get adequate funding?
Yes.
- WHat will happen to EU citizens living in the UK and British citizens living in the EU?
Not much.
The effects for people living in the opposite parties territory are probably dependent on whether or not they are gainfully employed or not. If they are there are good chances little will change. People who are not working may be up for nasty surprises, like suddenly losing health care insurances, losing social benefits. For professionals reciprocal recognition of diploma's might become problematic.
After removing the EU directives the UK can consider bilateral treaties, but negotiating them can be time consuming.
- When will the UK trigger article 50?
Within a couple of months of a new PM being elected. Some time 2017.
- will the UK join the EFTA? When?
Yes, within 2 years of Article 50 being triggered. 2019.
- will the UK join the EEA?
Uncertain.
- will it be allowed to restrict the free movement of people?
To quote Vicky Pollard: Yeah but no but yeah but no but yeah. A messy compromise will be reached that lets all claim victory, but will essentially maintain free movement (just likely with benefits even more tightly restricted than Cameron had negotiated).
- when will the EEA-deal be concluded or at least get close enough to conclusion that it can be taken as a sure thing?
With 2 years of Article 50 being triggered. Taken as a sure thing within a year.
- will there be an extension of the withdrawal-process beyond the mandated 2 years from the triggering of article 50?
No. It is in the interests of everyone that this is over and there really isn't that much to argue over if we join the EEA.
- will any banks or other major companies relocate a substantial portion of their business to some other country? Which country?
Yes, but that happens all the time anyway. Ireland.
- Will the UK enact especially business-friendly legislation in the upcoming months in order to persuade these companies to stay? What legislation?
No, but yes as we do that all the time anyway.
- Will the EU successfully conclude a FTA with the US before the UK withdraws from the EU?
No. More interesting question is will the EU successfully conclude an FTA with the US before an independent UK does.
- Will the NHS get adequate funding?
Yes, but political opponents will still say no.
- WHat will happen to EU citizens living in the UK and British citizens living in the EU?
Nothing. Negotiations lead to a "grandfathering" so that their rights are respected.
Norway is expressing reservations about EFTA membership for the UK. They'd first want to see what effect the membership of the UK would have on their own arrangement with the EU.
As far as I can tell, if there are any reservations they have to do with joining the EEA rather than EFTA.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
Wait, my bad:
http://www.thelocal.no/20160628/norw...k-joining-efta
I wonder if anyone realized that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Aimless
Who needs to do their homework when they can use their gut and listen to those uninformed morons they already agree with?
It is interesting though. I'd just assumed that the UK re-joining EFTA would be beneficial to--and welcomed by--all EFTA-members, provided there were no special treatment. I hadn't considered the possibility that the UK may have a disruptive and unwelcome effect on EFTA simply by joining it.
I'm guessing they might not want the UK to hijack their bargaining positions, the same way it constantly tried in the EU. Only here, the UK would have more leverage. .
Btw, I have been wondering about something that I think you guys may be able to explain to me.
If the pound drops against the dollar and some other currencies
and then dollar drops against some of those other currencies
does the pound rally against the dollar?
Only if all other parameters stayed the same.Quote:
Originally Posted by Aimless
Unknown.Quote:
Originally Posted by Aimless
If the pound holds stable against those other currencies in the second phase then yes. If not, then not necessarily. More information required for a definitive answer.
There's two years to negotiate entry, why would Norway guarantee the UK entry before any negotiations have taken place whatsoever yet? I have no doubt we'll get it sorted if that is the path we go down, but it makes no sense for any party at this premature stage to give everything away unconditionally.Quote:
Originally Posted by Aimless
It creates extra problems for the UK though that it has to play on several boards at the same time, with stronger and more experienced players. Just a wild example; what if Bulgaria brings up the problem of fishing rights? Sounds ridiculous doesn't it? But they could. And to make that demand go away will not be as easy as saying that it is ridiculous.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade