The only reason we haven't yet hit recession is because the BoE moved heaven and Earth to protect us. Our growth forecasts and actuals since have been garbage.
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The only reason we haven't yet hit recession is because the BoE moved heaven and Earth to protect us. Our growth forecasts and actuals since have been garbage.
Moved heaven and earth? We had a quarter point interest rate reduction which has already been reversed.
The only reason we had a Bank of England to act was because we hadn't join the Euro which Hazir has long argued with me that we should have done. You are right that the forecasts since have been rubbish with us outperforming the forecasts but forecasts are almost invariably wrong anyway.
Evidence from an "expert" but I guess you've probably had enough of them Aimless ;)
....the public have become more positive about immigration. Far fewer see it as a major political priority and more see it as positive for Britain’s economy and culture. What is more, this shift is seen across the board — it isn’t a case of liberal “Remainers” rallying behind migrants, while migrant sceptic “Leavers” dig in their heels. The positive shift in attitudes seems to be occurring across the political and social spectrum.
....why isn’t this shift more widely known and discussed on the pro-migration, “Remain” side of politics. Here I must resort to anecdote and unrepresentative data a little, but it is my firm impression that politically active “Remainers” and migration liberals tend to believe things have become worse since Brexit......It does seem that the conventional wisdom among this unusually well informed and engaged group is that migration attitudes have hardened since Brexit. Yet the evidence robustly points in the opposite directionhttps://medium.com/@robfordmancs/how...t-e37881f55530
...and a £170bn package of stimulation measures which was specifically intended to prevent recession. Don't forget that.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
We had £70bn of Quantitative Easing as the Bank had been doing for a long time, compared to £400bn before then.
Just for the heck of it ; Zuckerberg is going to testify at the EP tonight.
That is a person misrepresenting findings as well as failing to put them into context. If you look at the IPSOS-mori findings for example, despite the slight positive shift in the panel's attitudes (nb: cumulative response rates dropped from ca 80% to 30% necessitating a "top-up"), 28% were outright anti immigration and a majority wanted to reduce immigration (which is consistent with voting for a party that has pledged to reduce immigration by an order of magnitude). Opposition to immigration and desire to reduce immigration was most prevalent and strongest among Leave voters, esp. conservatives (where 90% wanted to reduce immigration).
Given UK's demographics you should expect a slow increase in positive attitudes with or without Brexit in a representative sample that includes 16-y-olds, a growing number of whom are immigrants or children of immigrants. In light of this it's not particularly bright or informative to report on the alleged shifts in attitudes at the population level.
He's an academic who works in that field but I guess you've had enough of experts.
He's an academic working in the field misrepresenting his sources. You can confirm this yourself. This is really not going to prove to be a successful angle of attack for you.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
He's not misrepresenting anything, if you think he is quote a paragraph he's written and show how its misrepresenting anything.
Please reread my post and then reread his post.
I'm not seeing what in your post shows how he's misrepresented anything in his. His article is titled "How have attitudes to immigration changed since Brexit"
You are quoting numbers out of context by simply saying numbers without any before or after figures which is what change measures.
Twitter Link
Timely.
Carney is the banker who cried wolf. Funnily enough the economy has outperformed all his predictions post-Brexit and even when ONS figures are released they are repeatedly revised upwards.
Also announced today has been a £5bn revision reducing the amount of borrowing over the past 12 months bringing our borrowing down even further below projections and leading to our first time in 16 years the UK's day to day spending has all been met by taxes. Public Sector Net Borrowing (excluding Banks and Bank of England QE) fell by over 3% in the past 12 months too despite being forecast to increase in the same period.
I'm just waiting for the inevitable "crunch" when you guys finally hit the wall.
https://www.ft.com/content/dde5cd74-...4-2218e7146b04
To avoid the paywall Google for: UK government borrowing falls to lowest level in decade
The UK is the Road Runner to your wallQuote:
Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro
This is finally some pleasing news resultant from Cameron's austerity measures.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
Not sure why this is in the Brexit thread. The economic impacts of Brexit won't be known for many years after whatever changes are brought about as a result of the Brexit negotiations underway. Austerity leading to lowered borrowing has nothing to do with it.
I agree completely that Cameron/Osborne doing a good job is more important than whether we voted Leave/Remain.
Reason I posted it here is that its sort of a UK megathread and also because all the talk about Brexit was that it was going to crash the economy and lead to a ballooning deficit and a "punishment budget" would be necessary. That we're supposed to be crashing into a wall. Instead we have the first day-to-day budget surplus since 2001 when Gordon Brown turned the spending taps on.
Geeze, you really are daft.
A man jumped out of the window. People in the lower floors reported him stating: "Well, better than expected!" while he flew by.
Its been 2 years since we "jumped". If you can find a man still in the air 2 years after jumping then it would be impressive.
Are you authistic ?
Are you retharded ?
It's an allegory, Rand. That means: "Not to be taken literally" (because I'm pretty sure that you don't know what an allegory is).Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
With that kind of skills at recognizing the meaning behind words or a sentence, it's no wonder that you're that inept at comprehending the problems ahead of you.
It's more facetious than an allegory.
People are clever enough to realise when there's a wall ahead and take action accordingly which is why despite two years passing so far we're not suffering. Hence why a recession was supposed to be immediate following the shock of a leave vote, but wrong then and you're wrong now.
This Brexit thing is going to destroy the Tory party. I think it's done.
This is a stupid notion given that businesses expected negotiations to go smoothly (in no small part due to over-promising and obfuscation by govt) and expected at worst the softest of soft Brexits. It is very difficult to adjust to Brexit when there is so much uncertainty about how things are going to look after Brexit esp. wrt legal & regulatory matters, provided their business is such that they can completely compensate for Brexit at all. It is also difficult for large businesses to make major changes rapidly (ref. back to discussion about Brexiters reporting on positive post-ref business decisions as if they indicated optimism about Brexit even though the decisions were made a year prior to the referendum).Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
The Tory party will last longer than the EU will. It's survivedQuote:
Originally Posted by gogobongopop
Your second argument counteracts your first. Yes rapid changes are hard to make so changes would be in motion already we were warned. Its not happened.Quote:
Originally Posted by Aimless
Khen is absurd arguing as if all changes will occur on exit day itself when we hit the wall/floor depending upon his failed allegory of the day. Businesses if they were expecting disaster would act before that precisely because its hard to avoid it when its too late.
No, the fact that changes take time should lead us to expect a lag esp for companies that expect a very soft Brexit or if there is significant uncertainty about exactly how the future will look. Different scenarios require very different preparations and changes. Even where there may be a desire to make a major change, eg. moving to another country, it may be very difficult for logistical reasons eg. if you have a complex and sensitive supply chain.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
Yes, Rand, there are a LOT of changes come Hard Brexit day. The borders will close, your airlines will have to stay on the ground, your banks will lose passporting from one day to the next. And that's not a complete list.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
Currently your businesses are hoping that this will still be avoided. If, no when it turns out that you're unwilling, no, too inept to prevent this from happening then you'll really feel the pain.
I'll remind you of this next March. There's a reason why your airlines, for example, currently remind everyone who books a flight sometime beyond next March that they may be unable to honor the contract.
So much for the "max-fac solution": My comparison to TollCollect was, if anything, way too optimistic.
That thing would amount to up to 20 billion GBP per year. In short: The red bus with its 350 million GBP per week was right. It only lacked the minus sign.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...or-uk-business
Here's the perspective from someone who knows how things will work out:
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presente...ess-by-brexit/
Complete bullshit written on the bag of a fag paper with the weasel-word "could" in there.Quote:
Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro
You realize that this number comes directly from the government? Pray tell, do you know the basis upon which this number is calculated?
Ah every number from the government is the infallible gospel truth is it? http://theworldforgotten.com/showthread.php?t=6900Quote:
Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro
Yes I do and its garbage. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44238226
It was done "back of the envelope" as the BBC put it by estimating a cost per transaction, counting how many transactions there are then multiplying the two then inflating it by a further 60%
Its a ridiculous cake and eat it notion that people would be put off from doing transactions as it would cost £50 per transaction, but it will cost us as those transactions will still be happening.
You do realize that this is a realistic number for what this transaction would cost? I linked an interview with someone in the logistics business who actually has to do that (namely, if he wants to import into Switzerland) and he quoted a current cost of 65 GBP...
... but sure, dismiss the estimate out of hand. It's only done by someone who does this for a living. By the way, the iterviewee I linked? He said in no uncertain terms that he'd go out of business instantly when the border goes up. Maybe you should listen to the guy.
And, for fuck's sake, your own link from the BBC doesn't disagree with me in any way. In fact, it actually tells us why you are wrong to dismiss the number...
Fun times ahead:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/n...exit-02mld2jg2Quote:
A source said: “In the second scenario, not even the worst, the port of Dover will collapse on day one. The supermarkets in Cornwall and Scotland will run out of food within a couple of days, and hospitals will run out of medicines within two weeks.”
Rand, please remember, this is your own government doing the contingency planning.
Contingency planning? They aren't even working on Plan A. Work on gathering evidence for their proposals have only just begun. Dover is not equipped to deal with these scenarios, as the people running the port tried, in vain, to explain to Tories a while back.Quote:
Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro
A load of obvious bullshit produced and leaked by Chicken Licken civil servants with an agenda that is contradicted by their own department.Quote:
Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro
And you keep saying things like "this is your own government" as if that's supposed to impress me. I don't hold my government on a pedestal or view everything any civil servant ever produces as the gospel truth brought to us on stone tablets.
So, you won't have a 20 mile long backstop in Dover come Brexit day?Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade