How will EU policies on refugees change over the coming year?

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Originally Posted by RandBlade

You're within Schengen to within Schengen. You're neither entering nor leaving it.

If you were to fly from Switzerland to the USA then your papers would be checked. Or from Australia to the USA - and it would have nothing to do with the EU.

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Laughable nonsense again; you do know there are direct flights from pretty much all the main Greek islands to Germany? And that there are zero refugees on those flights (except the ones who managed to get a decent looking fake ID) ?

And for your information; both those Greek islands and Germany are inside the Schengen-zone. Where the rule I have been repeating over and over again still applies; refugees can be transported by airlines risk-free, illegal immigrants can not. Resulting in airlines not taking a risk and refusing everybody who they think could turn out to be an illegal immigrant. And that today includes 100% of all refugees.

Your government's 'solution' doesn't solve that problem, for the simple reason that it treat a select number of refugees as legal immigrants, leaving the vast majority of them out in the cold. Because it re-inforces the notion that only people with a visa should be allowed on board of planes. Even though the law specifically tells us that refugees don't need visas to fly. But good luck to them trying to explain this to an airline worker who's been instructed to refuse everyone without a visa.

Firstly what I wrote was not nonsense, the fact that there are zero refugees is utterly irrelevant to what I wrote.

Why you expect to delegate the responsibility of identifying who is a refugee and who is an illegal migrant to airlines is beyond me. It is not their job and it is not their duty. Stop trying to abscond one of the key duties of governments and thrust their duties onto people traffickers primarily and latterly airlines. If someone is in Greece then they are in a safe nation and they should be able to be processed in Greece and be given any paperwork they need to travel to Germany legally. There is no need or responsibility for the airlines to circumvent the duty of the Greek and German governments. The people in Greece are not in imminent and immediate danger that requires airlines to evacuate them without any paperwork.

As for my governments actions, no solution solves the problems, other than making Syria safe and free but that isn't happening any time soon. However my government does help some, while providing vast amounts of financing for the majority (95%) who need it. Continental governments are helping nobody at all, while simultaneously failing to provide obligated funding to the vast 95% majority. So we're helping more directly, while helping the majority more. So how can you contemplate criticising that?

If airlines are refusing so-called refugees in Greece without any paperwork then they are doing entirely the right thing. Paperwork can and should be acquired in Greece. You forget that when the rules that refugees don't need paperwork was written, it was also written that refugees needed to claim in the first safe nation. Refugees do not have the right to go anywhere in the world they please. The notion of evacuating fleeing refugees is one thing, on the other hand flying between safe nations without any paperwork like you are proposing was never agreed.

People may have been refugees when they left Syria. Anyone moving from Greece to Germany is an illegal migrant and the airlines are obligated to refuse them all. Let Germany give them paperwork if they want to, to fly legally. You can't even have the dishonest pretence of "we can't due to Turkey" if people are in Greece already.

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Originally Posted by Hazir

And how does that make the impact of 1 million people suddenly entering your territory any less?

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Doesn't make the immediate impact less, but changes the nature and aftermath of the effort by quite a bit if you know that the refugees aren't going to stay forever (only a few 10.000 stayed after the war). The refugees entering now: are unlikely to ever leave (making them in effect migrants), are likely to bring over their families (multiply number of accepted people by 3 to 5), are likely to have low levels of employment (cf. the employmentrate of the migrants already present), more often than not have a wildly differing culture as well as a religion that just as often is opposed to the culture receiving them (and we all know how well "integration" went with the current batch), and will in many cases need psychological help sooner or later (apparently the traumatised of the Balkan-Breakup of the 90s are starting to -finally- seek the help they need).

in effect the WW1-effort lasted about a year. This one will last for decades. So you tell me how a million-man refugee wave that left as swiftly as it came is different from a wave of unknown size that is unlikely to ever leave.

Does it mean we don't need to help refugees? No! But they need to understand that our hospitality is of an ending nature.

Demographic problems have political/diplomatic solutions...but the only "governments" that can solve these problems aren't in place just yet. Might as well ask if China's one-child policy will change over the next year, when the better question is how will policy change over the next decade, or century. Or ask Japanese about their aging population, compared to their 'dollar' valuations for commerce and trade.

I think the policies for refugees is taking back status to political ideology. The US should be accepting millions of political refugees from the middle East and Africa, regardless of their religious affinities.

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Originally Posted by Crazy_Ivan80

Doesn't make the immediate impact less, but changes the nature and aftermath of the effort by quite a bit if you know that the refugees aren't going to stay forever (only a few 10.000 stayed after the war). The refugees entering now: are unlikely to ever leave (making them in effect migrants), are likely to bring over their families (multiply number of accepted people by 3 to 5), are likely to have low levels of employment (cf. the employmentrate of the migrants already present), more often than not have a wildly differing culture as well as a religion that just as often is opposed to the culture receiving them (and we all know how well "integration" went with the current batch), and will in many cases need psychological help sooner or later (apparently the traumatised of the Balkan-Breakup of the 90s are starting to -finally- seek the help they need).

in effect the WW1-effort lasted about a year. This one will last for decades. So you tell me how a million-man refugee wave that left as swiftly as it came is different from a wave of unknown size that is unlikely to ever leave.

Does it mean we don't need to help refugees? No! But they need to understand that our hospitality is of an ending nature.

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Even if all pans out the way you say it will for Syrians and other real refugees, we're talking about no more than 1% of the population of the affected area (EU).

And that's me allowing for your implicit claim that all refugees are the same.

Curious on your maths there. There were 22 million Syrians in 2013. That's without factoring in that many of the Syrians crossing are not really Syrians.

95% haven't crossed to Europe last I heard a figure (that may have changed) which is why we need to deal with source nations instead of just those already here. If more cross as is happening then an upper limit of 1% seems unlikely. The population of the EU is not 2.2 billion.

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Originally Posted by RandBlade

Curious on your maths there. There were 22 million Syrians in 2013. That's without factoring in that many of the Syrians crossing are not really Syrians.

95% haven't crossed to Europe last I heard a figure (that may have changed) which is why we need to deal with source nations instead of just those already here. If more cross as is happening then an upper limit of 1% seems unlikely. The population of the EU is not 2.2 billion.

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Duh, like the entire Syrian population will EVER flee from the country.

Those who've fled (which are not all who will flee before the conflict is over) already exceed 1%

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Originally Posted by RandBlade

Those who've fled (which are not all who will flee before the conflict is over) already exceed 1%

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Of whom close to 80% don't have the desire or means to come to the EU.

Ah so only people who have the means to come to the EU are worthy of refuge here in your eyes? That explains why you want this people smugglers sink or swim policy, its survival of the wealthiest rather than fittest.

Isn't that the same? http://img2.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb2...rmal2pl7-1.png

The closure of Egypt to tourism could make this Syrian migration a scratch of the surface of the total migration to come.

I went on holiday to Hurgada in 2012 for my 30th. We had a trip to Luxor planned for my birthday but as it was on the day of elections there Thomson cancelled the excursion at the last minute. It was rescheduled for later before the end of our holiday. The tour guide during the rescheduled excursion said that 25% of the local Hurgada population work in tourism.

I feel very sorry for the Egyptians. A long term cancellation of tourism will be devastating to the economies of Sharm and Hurgada especially. Probably more areas too.

I suspect that 99% of the population of the Middle East are not crazy extremists but the inability of our and the local authorities to deal with the 1% of crazies is making life there unliveable.

If I was an Egyptian who works in tourism and so passably speaks English or German to give service to tourists and faces losing my livelihood at home I know what I'd be doing.

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Originally Posted by RandBlade

The closure of Egypt to tourism could make this Syrian migration a scratch of the surface of the total migration to come.

I went on holiday to Hurgada in 2012 for my 30th. We had a trip to Luxor planned for my birthday but as it was on the day of elections there Thomson cancelled the excursion at the last minute. It was rescheduled for later before the end of our holiday. The tour guide during the rescheduled excursion said that 25% of the local Hurgada population work in tourism.

I feel very sorry for the Egyptians. A long term cancellation of tourism will be devastating to the economies of Sharm and Hurgada especially. Probably more areas too.

I suspect that 99% of the population of the Middle East are not crazy extremists but the inability of our and the local authorities to deal with the 1% of crazies is making life there unliveable.

If I was an Egyptian who works in tourism and so passably speaks English or German to give service to tourists and faces losing my livelihood at home I know what I'd be doing.

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Hah, you better pray there's no civil war in Turkey.

Or you should.

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Originally Posted by RandBlade

Or you should.

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Just pointing out, 20 million people living less than a 2 hrs drive from the nearest EU border. No fence is going to stop them if they feel the need to start moving.

Absolutely. Since you've got open migration currently for anyone who says they're a refugee that will be a real problem if you're concerned about that. Plus Turks can just drive across the border they don't need to cross the water and pay people smugglers.

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Originally Posted by RandBlade

Absolutely. Since you've got open migration currently for anyone who says they're a refugee that will be a real problem if you're concerned about that. Plus Turks can just drive across the border they don't need to cross the water and pay people smugglers.

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Exactly they can drive there. And in numbers no fantasies of controling them will ever work .

Following the tragedy in Paris, Poland are now saying they won't take their EU quota of migrants now because of it. I expect other Eastern European nations that were skeptical or against the quota system to say the same thing.

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Originally Posted by RandBlade

Following the tragedy in Paris, Poland are now saying they won't take their EU quota of migrants now because of it. I expect other Eastern European nations that were skeptical or against the quota system to say the same thing.

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Interesting way of showing solidarity.

Twitter Link

Didn't really fit better anywhere else :o

I bet a poll about letting Jews in would have been even worse. Which often makes it ironic how much Americans consider the Shoah as part of their history.

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Originally Posted by Hazir

Interesting way of showing solidarity.

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Are you surprised?

I think he still lives in Merkel-Lala-Land.

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Originally Posted by RandBlade

Are you surprised?

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Not in the least. Clearly the 2004 expansion was a big mistake.

Why?

It was Merkel who screwed this up, she's not in the 2004 intake. Furthermore having a voluntary rather than compulsory relocation scheme for the people Merkel has invited over is no different to having the eastern nations not part of the EU. So what difference does it make? Trying to compel nations to do what they don't want to is doomed to failure.

OK this is not EU but I still want to note that many US states did actually exactly the same as Poland.

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Originally Posted by RandBlade

Why?

It was Merkel who screwed this up, she's not in the 2004 intake. Furthermore having a voluntary rather than compulsory relocation scheme for the people Merkel has invited over is no different to having the eastern nations not part of the EU. So what difference does it make? Trying to compel nations to do what they don't want to is doomed to failure.

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The US is not the EU. But the EU does have to decide if it wants to be a "union", where nations share their information with other nations. And if small (or financially failing) nations like Greece can't control/patrol their borders.....what is the EU willing to do?

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Originally Posted by earthJoker

OK this is not EU but I still want to note that many US states did actually exactly the same as Poland.

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Just like they did in the 1930s...

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Originally Posted by Loki

Just like they did in the 1930s...

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US policy isn't infallible, huh.

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Originally Posted by GGT

The US is not the EU. But the EU does have to decide if it wants to be a "union", where nations share their information with other nations. And if small (or financially failing) nations like Greece can't control/patrol their borders.....what is the EU willing to do?

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Originally Posted by GGT

The US is not the EU. But the EU does have to decide if it wants to be a "union", where nations share their information with other nations. And if small (or financially failing) nations like Greece can't control/patrol their borders.....what is the EU willing to do?

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It's not information alone that is being shared. Germany unilaterally abolished international asylum laws and invited millions in and then decided to redistribute these people to other nations against the wishes of the migrants Germany invited and against the wishes of nations that didn't want to invite them. German's mess not Poland's. People not information.

This would be like New York's governor unilaterally inviting in millions from central America then compelling Georgia to take some of them.

You're missing the minor fact that those people were already within EU borders.

No because they weren't.

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Originally Posted by RandBlade

No because they weren't.

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Yes they were, Greece is in the EU, and so is Italy. As for stopping them, for god's sake just for once look at a map of the Aegean islands and guess how far some of the Greek islands are away from the turkish mainland. I can tell you there are people who with a little bit of training can literally swim to the Greek island of Kastellorizo.

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Originally Posted by Hazir

Yes they were, Greece is in the EU, and so is Italy. As for stopping them, for god's sake just for once look at a map of the Aegean islands and guess how far some of the Greek islands are away from the turkish mainland. I can tell you there are people who with a little bit of training can literally swim to the Greek island of Kastellorizo.

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Hundreds of thousands have crossed into Italy and Greece since Merkel slammed the door wide open unilaterally with the numbers increasing dramatically. Those who have gone into the EU in recent months were not in the EU when Merkel unilaterally made her decision to abandon internationally agreed rules (expecting to then dump the reaction into other states).

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Originally Posted by RandBlade

Hundreds of thousands have crossed into Italy and Greece since Merkel slammed the door wide open unilaterally with the numbers increasing dramatically. Those who have gone into the EU in recent months were not in the EU when Merkel unilaterally made her decision to abandon internationally agreed rules (expecting to then dump the reaction into other states).

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Hundreds of thousands had already crossed from Turkey to Greece, with the influx into Italy having come to an halt when people realised how relatively easy it was to enter the EU by simply crossing in a rubber boat from Turkey to a Greek island. The 'policy change' Merkel announced was that Germany would not examine the possibility of sending people to Greece any longer, as the examination had become an exercise void of any meaning because judges had already ruled Greece - despite being a signatory to the Dublin agreement - could not be considered a country where refugees could be sent to.

Now I can imagine that if they teach you in school that your country hasn't been conquered since almost 1000 years ago (a blatant lie of course) you can live in the fantasy that if hundreds of thousands or people are in Greece it isn't really your problem. But the rest of us don't have that luxury. And at least Merkel isn't one of those chicken-shit politicians you're used to who'd swear on a Koran that the sun rises in the West if a UKIP leader farts a bit loud.

Sweden imposes ID-checks on the trains between Denmark and Sweden, effectively ruining the lives of commuters between Malmö and Copenhagen, in addition to undermining free mobility and the right to seek asylum. embarrassing display of incompetent governance considering the sudden change of policy that shows no regard for harmful knock-on effects. Obv anti-refugee sentiments will only increase thanks to this measure that has already added an hour or more to commute times in addition to reducing number of trains. But the delicious irony is that support for this govt. will likely decrease even further :o

Better wake up late than never.

True but usually also best to put on pants before going to work.

Not if your house is on fire. People often do strange things in those cases, like putting their own life in danger to safe replaceable stuff.