The US does that too, every so often. I still think we'll see herds of flying pigs before Italy integrates their current illegal immigrants into the [legitimate] economy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
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The US does that too, every so often. I still think we'll see herds of flying pigs before Italy integrates their current illegal immigrants into the [legitimate] economy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
Given the size of tax evasion and the underground economy in Italy, I'm not sure legalizing immigrants is really the solution at all.
And there lies the problem of your solution, the emigration from Italy to other European countries.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
And here we have it; Italy gets serious about deficit reduction and liberalisation of the economy and the ECB indicates it will also buy Italian bonds. A very good end to the week; Italy will even get a balanced budget stipulation in its constitution.
The ECB has just decided that it will take decisive action tomorrow in response to the markets. That doesn't say with so many words that they will buy Italian and Spanish bonds, but it can hardly mean anything else. I would be very surprised if they don't intervene tomorrow.
The Dutch parliament will debate ratification of the 'Greek deal' later this week, Belgium has rescheduled from October to September.
But wait, I thought you said it wasn't the ECB's role to do that, only to control inflation?
True, it's a stopgap measure to enable the EMU to get the EFSF in place, which will need ratification by 17 countries. You also noticed how the ECB forced the Italian government's hand over the weekend? Or the other EMU members' for that matter?
In about a month we'll have a fiscal union for all intents and purposes, it will take some time before the Germans will be accepting that name, but that doesn't change the fact that we have one.
I find it deplorable that we needed the ECB to step in, but the alternative would be no ECB, and given the choices I don't care too much about principle :)
I'm just glad that you've come around this year to what I was saying for the last decade about the euro. :)
? I was never against a full fiscal and/or political union. I merely thought - wrongly - that market forces were going to deal with prolifigacy in the absence of such a union. That also explains why I never put high hopes on the 'Pact'. What I didn't imagine was that the 'smart money' would pour into Greek sovereigns like Greece was ruled from Berlin. That effectively set us up for the path we're upon right now; we will have a fiscal union, and I presume a political union can't be far behind. No taxation without representation and all that.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
I don't understand at all why you would feel so content with me getting what I wanted anyway, putting the UK just that little bit closer to the melt-down scenario I still think is going to happen. You're on the edge of the abyss still, the last EU country in that dire position, and your political relevance will decline even further. It was pathethic how British ministers tried to present the crisis as if the UK was a 'safe haven' more than the US.
Which is one reason I was wary of the eurozone. I said all along there were inherent dangers of having a monetary union without either a fiscal union or a political union. This year has closed any argument on that point and we're now not disagreeing any more but firmly agreeing on the matter.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
I also agree with you about the politics: Lets not forget we're now nearing a position of having both a monetary and fiscal union for the eurozone without any proper European demos or democracy. How you can have both types of union without any proper democracy is completely undemocratic and unsustainable.
The "last European country" - who are you trying to kid? Please present ANY independent economic analysis to suggest that the UK is closer to the abyss than France is. If contagion will spread further up than Italy to any of Europe's three large economies it won't be the UK or Germany that falls first.Quote:
I don't understand at all why you would feel so content with me getting what I wanted anyway, putting the UK just that little bit closer to the melt-down scenario I still think is going to happen. You're on the edge of the abyss still, the last EU country in that dire position, and your political relevance will decline even further. It was pathethic how British ministers tried to present the crisis as if the UK was a 'safe haven' more than the US.
As for "pathetic" - explain that to S&P. They're the ones who give the US an AA+ rating and us a AAA one.
France is behind the ECB firewall, you aren't.
What ECB firewall?Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
The basically unlimited amount of money the ECB can use to buy EMU sovereign debt. It's becoming near impossible to gamble against individual EMU members. It's not impossible to gamble against shaking Britain.
Really, so that's why the UK's 10-year public debt yield is "shaking" at 2.64%? SourceQuote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
Please tell me what it is for nations behind the "ECB Firewall" such as Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece or Spain?
But lets be fair, I referenced the big 3 nations and specifically France. So how about France? Wait, what is this, France is higher at 3.11% Source
So by that metric again France is worse than the UK. Any others?
EDIT: Just found out - missed it with the downgrade of the US and the utter disastrous collapse of one eurozone economy after another - but S&P have changed what they say about the UK now too. The UK was of course AAA but with a negative outlook, they've now lifted the negative outlook from us and reaffirmed the AAA status. Again back in reality we've taken the necessary austerity actions before being forced to.
So once more, please find a single economic reason anywhere at all to show the UK is in a worse situation than France?
Two indebted countries, one backed by extremely deep pockets and one out in the cold. Your present yield is meaningless.
Our pockets are deeper than Frances and in case you've forgotten, we're members of the IMF - which has some fairly deep pockets.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
IMF will not save you, and you don't have pockets deeper than the ECB, which could buy up the entire debt of all piigs withouth breaking a sweat. The fact that it can by the way also means it won't have to. Anybody short on Spain or Italy got his fingers burned badly yesterday.
The IMF can no more buy up the entire debt of all PIIGS without breaking a sweat than the BOE can buy up the entire debt of the UK without breaking a sweat.
I can only laugh about that claim, as it would make what happened in the UK the last few days look like a candle lit party.
So to be clear then you don't have a single economic measure in which France is better off than the UK right now?
You really don't get it do you? Being part of the EMU is what shields France. Now that the ECB has stepped in anybody betting against french sovereign debt will certainly loose money. If the same people decide to bet against the UK they have a fair chance of winning. It's not like that would be the first time either; when you were forced out of the ERM 1 that was because the Germans threw you in front of the bus while France got their full support. The firing power of the ECB is many times that of the Bundesbank.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
And you're getting close to the point where people may want to take that bet against you. The economy is weak, there is serious doubt about the fiscal policies. Not even your present low yields are a real sign of strength; for many investors there was nowhere else to go with equity being in the state it is, and the insecurity about the eurozone and US debt.
So that's a no then. The notion that the ECB protects anyone is well and truly debunked now so drop your politics.
We have plenty of non-political economic measurements: GDP, public debt, unemployment.
Got even a single comparable economic measurement that shows London is on the verge of collapse (well barring the violent news this week, but the French one-up us on that regularly too).
God, you're really too stupid for words.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
So that's definite then. You don't even a single independent economic metric. Not one. Just your blind batshit insane political faith that's been shown for the bullshit it is repeatedly this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
How about you just STFU until you learn something about economics as you're just embarrassing yourself here.
He has a 1000 more posts than you, so his GDP (Gross Domestic Posts) is higher, by that metric he is a more experienced poster, therefore you should heed Hazir.
-Fin
Back in reality, the CDS rates for France have hit a record high as fears continue to rise about the eurozone crisis.
Are you putting your money where your mouth is Hazir? After all given the "impossibility to bet against" the eurozone PIIGS, let alone France, your sublime confidence must be making you a very rich man.
As investors continue to be so reassured by the ECB Firewall, Swedish Libor interest rates went negative today.
Yeah, yeah, talk about the crisis in the Eurozone in London is at a high when the British economy is really in trouble. Makes one wonder why.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
Its only you saying the British economy "is really in trouble". You've shown that you're completely unable to find any economic evidence to back that up other than "you're not in the euro".Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
Today French CDS hit record highs, while British yields fell below 2.5%. But you keep up with your dogma.
To be fair, the news on France is probably just hysteria from rumors about a potential French downgrade. I find it highly unlikely that France will default on its debts (irrespective of the fact that its debt situation is more dire than either the US or UK), but markets are seizing on any rumor and reacting with major swings. French banks were hammered today for no particularly good reason.
In other news, 10 year Treasuries are running at 2.14%. That's absurdly low, and it might drop even further. I find it remarkable that given all of the hype over the US' fiscal house, in times of economic peril people still flock to it as the safest bet around - not supposedly 'firewalled' eurozone countries.
My big question for you, Hazir, is this: countries with independent monetary policies have the option of devaluing their currency to help ameliorate a difficult fiscal situation. The results aren't pretty, but they're often better than outright default. In what way is being a member of the eurozone (which eliminates the possibility of devaluing) a good thing for these stressed countries? They have fewer options and are forced into a managed default by the ECB... done in fits in starts in a way seemingly calculated to cause the greatest amount of damage and uncertainty. As far as I can tell, being in the ECB has only tied the hands of countries like Greece.
I'll admit they reaped some benefits from the currency union prior to the crash, but one could argue that those benefits - cheap credit in particular - were curses in disguise, since peripheral economies were either overleveraged or overheating, and independent monetary policy would have created a check on runaway indebtedness. How is this 'firewall' helping them?