Ukraine

http://www.dw.de/image/0,,17499831_404,00.jpg
Well that brings a new level of transparency to voting :p I'm guessing vote confidentiality isn't a big thing there, over here a type of voting computers was banned because it was theoretically possible to determine what someone voted.

It always amuses me when countries like Russia feel the need to fake the votes even when they would clearly win them.

And here come the sanctions.

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The US and the European Union have retaliated over the Crimea referendum by targeting sanctions against Russians and Ukrainians.

European foreign ministers imposed EU-wide sanctions on Monday against 21 Russian and Ukrainian officials linked to unrest in Crimea. Washington followed up an hour later with a list of its own, targeting seven top Russian government officials and politicians and four Crimea-based separatist leaders accused of undermining the "democratic processes and institutions in Ukraine".

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http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...ficials-crimea

The next round will entail writing a nasty Op-Ed in a Russian newspaper.

They have Op-Eds in Russian newspapers?

I guess they'll have to buy a newspaper in Russia first. Adds to the cost of the message!

On a serious note, the Russian stock market went up 5% today. That tells you everything you need to know about the efficacy of the sanctions.

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Originally Posted by Loki

I guess they'll have to buy a newspaper in Russia first. Adds to the cost of the message!

On a serious note, the Russian stock market went up 5% today. That tells you everything you need to know about the efficacy of the sanctions.

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Well, all of 21 Russians will have to undergo the indignity of having to get around visa rules being applied to them. Probably they'll just buy a Bulgarian passport.

There's no need to do anything else. I'm sure Putin will be satisfied once he has his lebensraum.

BTW, basically a gift for Hazir:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...britain-russia

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Originally Posted by Wraith

BTW, basically a gift for Hazir:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...britain-russia

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Actually, I don't know what to make of this. On the one hand I feel this just shows what you get if you try to guard your sovereignty in the EU with a dangerous disregard for the fact that Europe is on the doorstep of Russia. On the other hand, this is the state we're in so could I really blame them for not wanting to risk 25% of their economic basis for a piece of land they don't feel all that strong about?

If they don't feel so strong about it, they shouldn't have signed the Budapest Memorandum.

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Originally Posted by Loki

If they don't feel so strong about it, they shouldn't have signed the Budapest Memorandum.

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You know as well as I do that the purpose of that was not to safeguard Ukraine, but to get rid of yet another state with a nuclear stockpile. Once that was achieved Ukraine got about as important as is shown right now. Still think that nuclear weapons don't count in the balance of power?

So, whose up for occupying Karelia?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26627236 Next?

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Originally Posted by Hazir

You know as well as I do that the purpose of that was not to safeguard Ukraine, but to get rid of yet another state with a nuclear stockpile. Once that was achieved Ukraine got about as important as is shown right now. Still think that nuclear weapons don't count in the balance of power?

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That depends on whether the UK and US want to maintain their credibility when convincing other states to give up their nuclear programs. See Iran and North Korea.

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Originally Posted by Hazir

You know as well as I do that the purpose of that was not to safeguard Ukraine, but to get rid of yet another state with a nuclear stockpile. Once that was achieved Ukraine got about as important as is shown right now. Still think that nuclear weapons don't count in the balance of power?

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I have to agree with Loki here. If this really was a bluff by the UK and US, they just got called and it will hardly work ever again.

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Originally Posted by Loki

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26627236 Next?



That depends on whether the UK and US want to maintain their credibility when convincing other states to give up their nuclear programs. See Iran and North Korea.

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So, let's weigh this. On one side 'credibility' on the other side 'not another war' (USA) and 'no massive recession' (UK). Tough choice? I think not. If containing Russia was ever going to happen then significantly different choices should have been made over the last 20 years. As we speak the situation is we see a US that's sick and tired of war, and a EU that has neither the will nor the means to stand up to Russia.

I presume we can expect another stern message to Russia now that the Crimea turns out to be Russian after all. Maybe 10 more people will be added to the restricted list.

A Ukranian officer was killed just now; still not a war gentlemen?

So what's next now that the Anschluss Crimea is complete?

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Originally Posted by Wraith

So what's next now that the Anschluss Crimea is complete?

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I would think that all of Ukraine eastern of the Dnjepr river, and possibly Odessa and surrounding area will soon also turn out to be ancient parts of the motherland. And nobody will do anything against it that will hurt the City of London or Daimler interests.

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Originally Posted by Wraith

So what's next now that the Anschluss Crimea is complete?

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Alaska has always been an integral part of Russia. It was a historical mistake to sell it to the USA.

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Originally Posted by Hazir

So, let's weigh this. On one side 'credibility' on the other side 'not another war' (USA) and 'no massive recession' (UK). Tough choice? I think not. If containing Russia was ever going to happen then significantly different choices should have been made over the last 20 years. As we speak the situation is we see a US that's sick and tired of war, and a EU that has neither the will nor the means to stand up to Russia.

I presume we can expect another stern message to Russia now that the Crimea turns out to be Russian after all. Maybe 10 more people will be added to the restricted list.

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If you choose prosperity over maintaining international order, eventually you'll get neither prosperity nor order.

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Originally Posted by earthJoker

Alaska has always been an integral part of Russia. It was a historical mistake to sell it to the USA.

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Well, the entire Caucasus and half of Ukraine were part of "Russia" about as long as the Crimea, so...

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Originally Posted by Hazir

I would think that all of Ukraine eastern of the Dnjepr river, and possibly Odessa and surrounding area will soon also turn out to be ancient parts of the motherland. And nobody will do anything against it that will hurt the City of London or Daimler interests.

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You actually believe the Ukrainians won't fight over a third of their territory? I can assure you that if Russia attempts a serious land grab (I don't mean a few villages), there will be real war, even if the Ukrainians know they won't win the initial fighting.

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Originally Posted by Wraith

So what's next now that the Anschluss Crimea is complete?

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If I were the Ukrainians, I'd completely cut off access to Transnistria. Then see what Russia does.

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Originally Posted by Loki

If you choose prosperity over maintaining international order, eventually you'll get neither prosperity nor order.

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Probably. Maybe you should send an angry tweet to Mr Cameron and Mrs Merkel.

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Originally Posted by Loki

Well, the entire Caucasus and half of Ukraine were part of "Russia" about as long as the Crimea, so...



You actually believe the Ukrainians won't fight over a third of their territory? I can assure you that if Russia attempts a serious land grab (I don't mean a few villages), there will be real war, even if the Ukrainians know they won't win the initial fighting.



If I were the Ukrainians, I'd completely cut off access to Transnistria. Then see what Russia does.

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You have of course also looked at a map with the percentage of people in that area who are ethnic Russians and like me you know that the trick the Russians are going to play out is not an invasion of a peaceful Ukraine, but simply stoke the fire under local pro-Russian nationalists untill the eastern Ukraine is ready for secession. Not a single Russian soldier will cross the border untill the area has declared itself independent of Kiev.

This game will continue untill we stop calling this by other words than what it really is.

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Originally Posted by Hazir

You have of course also looked at a map with the percentage of people in that area who are ethnic Russians and like me you know that the trick the Russians are going to play out is not an invasion of a peaceful Ukraine, but simply stoke the fire under local pro-Russian nationalists untill the eastern Ukraine is ready for secession. Not a single Russian soldier will cross the border untill the area has declared itself independent of Kiev.

This game will continue untill we stop calling this by other words than what it really is.

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In terms of wanting to join Russia, the area is about 50-50. The Russians can stoke tensions (which I'm sure they'll do), but they're not going to get their Crimea scenario. The Ukrainian military and police has control there. The only way that area joins Russia (and the only way any kind of referendum will be allowed to take place there) is if Russia sends in tens of thousand of troops to "save" its ethnic kin.

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Originally Posted by Loki

In terms of wanting to join Russia, the area is about 50-50. The Russians can stoke tensions (which I'm sure they'll do), but they're not going to get their Crimea scenario. The Ukrainian military and police has control there. The only way that area joins Russia (and the only way any kind of referendum will be allowed to take place there) is if Russia sends in tens of thousand of troops to "save" its ethnic kin.

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I don't see much proof of Ukrainian police or army having ontrol over the east. We'll see soon enough I suppose.

They're regularly going in between rival protesters. The idea that there's a total collapse of authority in the east is a Russian myth.

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Originally Posted by earthJoker

Alaska has always been an integral part of Russia. It was a historical mistake to sell it to the USA.

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That makes sense. Putin certainly never agreed to the sale, so there's no reason he should be bound by it.

In all seriousness, I don't see why Putin should stop here. After all, we're only willing to go so far in terms of sanctions. He sees that pretty clearly now. Once we reach that limit, why not go after which ever other goodies he wants? I guess the question is what else he can reasonably expect to get without paying too high of a cost. Taking eastern Ukraine would entail quite a high risk. Maybe annex the other "semi-states"? Start lashing out at the Baltics (through provocations, not necessarily troops)?

Now that Crimea has been annexed by/for Putin's Russia....doesn't that mean a majority of Ukrainians can now 'exercise' their democratic alliances to Europe and the West? I get the impression that Crimean voters skewed the election of pro-Russia Yanukovych in the first place, because of demographics in important urban/port cities, and the structures of their political and voting processes that weren't necessarily "democratic" to begin with.

Isn't there a half-glass-full angle here? :noob: