What is there to explain? In a matter of 2 years Lisbon will come into full force and then regulating the financial sector can be decided by the eurozone. After which the EU can rubberstamp the decision.
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The financial situation of the UK is much worse than that of Italy, with less perspective for improvement. If the UK would have been a part of the EMU it would have been right there behind Greece and well before any of the other countries in trouble. Now that you are not part of the EMU even your 25% devalued currency doesn't make you any less of a basket case.
As far as I'm aware regulating the eurozone's financial sector can be decided by the eurozone members alone - Lisbon gives that power. It does not give the eurozone alone power to regulate the whole EU (ie London).
So what you are tacitly admitting is that had the UK been in the eurozone we'd now be in a disastrous situation? That it was a good job we're not in it? That is quite a remarkable, almost damascene coversion for you if that is what you mean :eek:
As for the UK being a basket case, there is no evidence for that. I asked for some evidence 3-4 pages back but you failed to provide any besides the fact that we're not in the eurozone. The UK is ticking along quite nicely thank you. Besides Germany we have the lowest yields in Europe - despite (or more likely because of) not being in the eurozone.
Just to avoid any confusion, if you are thinking that the 17 Eurozone nations could sign their own treaty which the UK is not a party to - thus somehow pinning the UK as irrelevent - I couldn't give a rats arse if that happened. Since that way the UK would ... not be a party to it anyway.
This is one of those moments that it becomes painfully obvious that you really don't understand what you are talking about. A continued EU with a separate EMU block acting inside that EU means that the EU will regulate as the EMU rules, and those regulations will be the law of the land everywhere in the EU, also in the UK. Whatever your government or parliament will have to say about what the law should be, will have any bearing on the outcome.
Even before this crisis started a process of pulling the strings had already begun by suggesting that certain clearing houses should not be located outside of the eurozone.
As for your economic and financial situation, you are a basketcase whichever currency you would be using. I just said that you're hardly a notch better than the Greeks when it comes to fiscal prudency, and a lot worse than the Italians when it comes to potential for improvement.
P.S. an EMU-specific new treaty will also make it not just improbable but utterly impossible for your government to claw back anything at all in return from what is really a major overhaul of the EU. :D
This is the kind of tripe you've always argued. Either way I don't care for a few reasons.
1: Where we have a veto it doesn't matter how much the EMU wants something.
2: Where it doesn't affect us, it doesn't matter at all.
3: Where there's QMV etc then we can already lose out to EMU-nations unifying anyway.
No shit Sherlock. Last I checked though London is still the major financial city in the EU. Anyway, EU rules prevent that sort of state discrimination actually happening so unless people choose to change (which they've not in the last decade despite all the warnings it would happen if we didn't join) then its not going to change.Quote:
Even before this crisis started a process of pulling the strings had already begun by suggesting that certain clearing houses should not be located outside of the eurozone.
Is it comedy night or are you actually serious?Quote:
As for your economic and financial situation, you are a basketcase whichever currency you would be using. I just said that you're hardly a notch better than the Greeks when it comes to fiscal prudency, and a lot worse than the Italians when it comes to potential for improvement.
Again, no shit Sherlock. Then again I'm more likely to believe snow in June than powers actually being clawed back without sacrifice. At least I can rely on the current PM to actually try to put Britain's interests first, not like his disgraceful predecessor whose ingenious idea was to miss the "family photo" signing of Lisbon and turn up by himself to sign it later that day.Quote:
P.S. an EMU-specific new treaty will also make it not just improbable but utterly impossible for your government to claw back anything at all in return from what is really a major overhaul of the EU. :D
Vetoes :D you actually believe any country is going to be allowed to actually use a veto if that goes against what the Franco-German axis wants? Dream on.
If it affects us: Yes. And I have a practical example from this year:
Otherwise the Tobin tax would actually be coming into force, it was afterall announced by Merkozy that it would be happening. It will never happen for so long as the UK has a veto.
Go Go German Hegemony!
Auf der Heide blüht ein kleines Blümelein
Und das heißt: Erika!
Heiß von hunderttausend kleinen Bienelein
Wird umschwärmt Erika!
Denn ihr Herz ist voller Süßigkeit,
Zarter Duft entströmt dem Blütenkleid
Auf der Heide blüht ein kleines Blümelein
Und das heißt: Erika!
In der Heimat wohnt ein kleines Mägdelein
Und das heißt: Erika!
Dieses Mädel ist mein treues Schätzelein
Und mein Glück, Erika!
Wenn das Heidekraut rot-lila blüht,
Singe ich zum Gruß ihr dieses Lied.
Auf der Heide blüht ein kleines Blümelein
Und das heißt: Erika!
In mein'm Kämmerlein blüht auch ein Blümelein
Und das heißt: Erika!
Schon beim Morgengrau'n sowie beim Dämmerschein
Schaut's mich an, Erika!
Und dann ist es mir, als spräch' es laut:
Denkst du auch an deine kleine Braut?
In der Heimat weint um dich ein Mägdelein
Und das heißt: Erika!
Funny example you have there, as the finance minister of Germany said as recent as october 30th that there had been no serious discussions about that tax in the EU so far. But he did indeed indicate that the eurozone might go it alone. It also wouldn't be such a big problem to regulate it in such a way that it doesn't really matter where traders are located, move or make empty threaths about where they would move.
And how important do you think the EU will remain to a eurozone that has made significant steps towards federation itself? It is very thinkable that the eurozone will not have any qualms about creating a situation where the City of London can no longer be a major financial center for Europe unless it abides by the rules set in the eurozone. You know, the funny thing is that if you Brits let this come about by continuing your decade long sit on the fence, you will have achieved what you always wanted; the same treatment as Norway and Switzerland. Which translates as 'live by our rules, but don't expect to have a say in what the rules are'. Then maybe we'll allow you free trade with us.
And?
I believe in free will and free choice. If the eurozone wants to become a single state, let it. I just don't want to be in it, I want to trade with it.
What is your alternative? Join the single state - no thanks. Prevent the single state? You (personally) don't want that.
Anyway, somehow I don't think the French want to stop being French etc either.
And?
I don't believe in a free lunch. I believe we can trade as part of a free-trade bloc. If some people want to form a single nation fine, but that is not what we joined.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/...5059-2,00.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zSRcFxZVAAQuote:
EU Summit Paves the Way for a Split Continent
Last Wednesday's summit in Brussels took important steps toward saving the European common currency. But it also made it clear that the European Union is being divided in two. Germany is the new Europe's leader -- for better or worse. By SPIEGEL Staff
At 7:45 p.m., European Council President Herman Van Rompuy could no longer avoid the embarrassing and unpleasant task of throwing out 10 people. Friendliness was called for, of course, and nice words. But so too was firmness: Their presence was no longer required, and they were asked to leave the assembly hall of the Justus Lipsius building in Brussels.
They were all proud people, the sort who usually do the throwing out themselves: national leaders like British Prime Minister David Cameron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk -- all from the 10 countries that are part of the European Union but don't use the euro.
They met last Wednesday with their 17 counterparts from the euro zone to discuss the future of Europe. In reality, though, they complained that the 17 euro-zone nations were embarking on their own path and not involving them sufficiently.
There was no shortage of grievances. Indeed, the full, 27-member session had already taken much longer than planned when Van Rompuy braced himself and asked Cameron, Tusk and the other eight leaders of non-euro-zone nations to leave. He thanked them for the "positive" discussion -- a choice of words which belied the heated atmosphere which characterized the session -- and went about his extremely unpleasant task.
There was a break, and then dinner was served. Now the 17 heads of state and government of the euro zone could finally tackle the important part of the meeting. Over dinner, they discussed how to save the euro.
Two Europes
It was a memorable meeting, and when it finally ended in the early morning hours of Thursday, a program to rescue the euro had emerged. It revealed the contours of a new Europe -- a divided Europe, with a new border running between those countries which belong to the common currency area and those which do not. In the future, there will be two Europes within the European Union.
One could very well be called Merkel's Europe. The German chancellor played an essential role in creating it, and now the euro zone is the kind of entity she envisioned.
This new Europe has a nearly hegemonic leader, namely Germany. It has a goal, the stability of the euro. And it has a principle that reads: Those who botch their finances stand to lose a portion of their sovereignty. It also has a central administrative body, the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), which manages the bailout fund.
Merkel's Europe is a sober, rational creation. As such, it bears a resemblance to its creator, a person with no great vision or passion about matters like peace or culture. Numbers count more than words in this new Europe, which is not a community of fate but one of convenience. And yet it is also true that if the euro zone turns out to be a success, it could help make Europe more effective overall.
The financial markets reacted positively at first. But everyone knows how volatile the situation is, which is why the German government's initial reactions to the outcome in Brussels were skeptical. "There will be no single solution during this process," German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said in an interview with SPIEGEL. "We still have a long way to go before all problems are solved."
German Money
But there is a general sense, if only temporary, of satisfaction. At the moment, it looks as if Merkel has done a relatively good job.
The chancellor supported a national strategy from the start. She didn't want to be Europe's savior. She wanted to protect German money to preserve Germany's competitiveness on global markets -- while perhaps saving Europe in the process.
If she had said from the beginning that the Germans, with their financial clout, would support the rest of the euro zone unconditionally, she would now be a celebrated European, and the events of the last few months would have unfolded more harmoniously. But that wasn't an option. Over a year ago, Merkel said that EU member states would not make enough of an effort if Germany proved to be too generous. And it is a motto she has stayed consistent to since.
That was her strategy: To encourage the other nations to make an effort. The Germans would intervene, but only if the problems still remain unresolved. The strategy has led to several achievements. For one, the Spaniards, Greeks, Portuguese and Italians have introduced austerity programs, some of them painful, to clean up their government finances. The German stability culture is gradually becoming dominant in Europe.
What Merkel demonstrated most of all this year is her stubbornness and rigidity. When it comes to votes, Merkel is as pliable as wax. She doesn't like to demand much from Germany's voters. But when it comes to demanding sacrifices from others, she can be relentless.
Stragglers and Second-Tier Nations
There were periods in this process when Merkel was sharply criticized abroad -- in both the United States and Europe -- as well as at home by the opposition and the media. Everyone, it seemed, wanted Germany to finally take a leadership role, which, for some, really meant that it was time for Berlin to pay up. But Merkel remained persistent. She is less fearful of someone like US President Barack Obama than of German voters.
But the price of her success in Brussels is the division of Europe. Those countries that are not part of the euro zone are now no longer part of a core Europe, and are now being asked to leave the room when the truly important issues are being debated. While the 17 euro-zone members walk at the front of the pack, the 10 non-euro-members are forced to walk behind, like stragglers and second-tier nations.
And now they have it in writing. In the closing document of last week's summit, euro-zone member states grant themselves the right to work together more closely without having to wait for the non-euro countries. The EFSF also deepens the divide. It is a facility set up by the 17 countries in the monetary union for the 17 countries in the monetary union.
Indeed, the European flag, the symbol of the European Union, doesn't fly in front the EFSF headquarters on John F. Kennedy Avenue 43 in Luxembourg. Only the blue-and-yellow colors of the logo indicate the relationship between the EFSF and Europe.
The 17 euro-zone leaders decided to make the bailout fund and its director, Klaus Regling, even more important in the future. Regling will receive more power and influence, as well as more money. He will become the nucleus of a new Europe driven by fiscal policy.
Part 2: Germany Takes the Lead
A total of €440 billion ($625 billion) were available, and after bailout programs for Portugal, Ireland and Greece, €250 billion are now left. This sum will now be boosted to about €1 trillion to provide faltering countries like Italy and Spain with liquidity assistance.
Two methods of leveraging are allowed. The first works like first-loss insurance. The EFSF guarantees investors that it will absorb a portion of the losses if Greek, Spanish or Italian government bonds get into trouble. If, in such a case, the EFSF absorbs the first 20 percent of losses, these countries' bonds become more attractive. The reasoning is that one euro from the bailout fund could be used to attract four more euros in private investment.
In the second method, the bailout fund, together with other private or public investors, invests in a special-purpose vehicle that buys up the bonds of ailing countries. This offer targets, in particular, the billions in the sovereign funds of countries like China and Brazil, which are seeking investment opportunities worldwide.
Should EFSF chief executive Regling attract the interest of investors with this sort of offer, his organization will end up with nine times as much money at its disposal than the European Commission. This too is an indication of the new balance of power.
The planned debt haircut for Greece also reveals the contours of the new Europe. The European Commission played only a secondary role in the matter, and non-euro countries like Sweden, Great Britain and the Eastern European nations were sidelined completely.
Far from a Healthy Number
The member states of the monetary union, most of all Germany, set the tone. Merkel and Finance Minister Schäuble pushed for a more drastic debt reduction, and they succeeded. Greece's private creditors, particularly banks and insurance companies, are now being asked to voluntarily waive half of their claims. Government creditors, most of all the European Central Bank (ECB), are spared. The expected consequence is that Greece's national debt will decline from the current 160 percent of annual economic output to 120 percent by 2020.
That is still far from a healthy number. Italy, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 120 percent, is considered to be approaching crisis as well. But the appeal of the solution is that Italy cannot now demand its own debt haircut, citing the treatment of Greece, to easily rid itself of a portion of its debts. One hundred and twenty percent is now more or less defined as a tolerable value.
But it's still too high, which is why the planned program for Greece is no reason to celebrate. Bad news will keep coming from debt-ridden countries, and the crisis summits will continue. The euro is safe for the moment, but it hasn't been stabilized for the long run.
And then there are the problems that having two Europes within the EU raises. The deal the EU heads of state worked out among themselves turns the EU into a two-class society. In addition to the European Commission, which represents all 27 member states, a new "Euro Summit" group is to be established. This club of the 17 euro-zone nations will meet "regularly, at least twice a year." Van Rompuy, president of the powerful European Council comprising of EU member state leaders, will also be appointed "President of the Euro Summit." The euro task force of top officials from all member states will also get a full-time chairman. This, together with the EFSF and the ECB, creates a strong second structure alongside the European Commission.
At the EU summit on the Sunday before last, British Prime Minister Cameron said that the resolutions planned by the euro-nation leaders would have "serious consequences" for the remaining EU countries, and that "the crisis in the euro zone is having an effect on all our economies."
Just as Annoyed
Cameron demanded that a clause be inserted into the results that would give the 27 EU countries the right to block decisions by the euro summit. The other non-euro members were sympathetic with Cameron's idea at first, but French President Nicolas Sarkozy managed to dissuade them from supporting the veto plan, arguing that only the British and the Danes had in fact made the fundamental decision not to join the euro. All others had committed themselves to joining the monetary union in the medium term. "This is not in your interest," the French president said, his words directed at the Poles, Czechs and other euro candidates. Van Rompuy dismissed the British foray as well.
The French president also lost his temper at times and directly attacked the British prime minister: "You missed a good opportunity to keep your mouth shut," Sarkozy huffed. "We are sick of you criticizing us and telling us what to do. You say you hate the euro and now you want to interfere in our meetings."
Such outbursts are not Merkel's style, and yet it is clear she has been just as annoyed by Cameron in recent months as Sarkozy has.
The €440 billion in the bailout fund are coming directly from the budgets of the euro member states, and yet the British prime minister demanded that the leverage effect of the EFSF be increased to "two trillion." On the other hand, the countries of the monetary union depend on the goodwill of the other EU members. For example, a meeting of the 27 EU members was needed last Wednesday to ratify the plan to recapitalize the banks.
To calm things down on both sides, the wording that was finally included in the results of the "euro summit" was intended to avoid a split within the EU. "The governance structure for the euro area will be strengthened, while preserving the integrity of the European Union as a whole," paragraph 30 reads. This sounds good enough, said Polish Premier Tusk, but "what does it mean in practice?"
He was not given an answer, but it will probably look like this: The British will have to think about whether they want to remain in the EU at all. There is a strong movement among the Conservatives to withdraw from the union. And most other non-euro EU members will keep their noses to the grindstone so that they can soon be part of the core club.
Protecting German Money
As such, Germany now has the Europe it wanted. It remains to be seen whether it will be happy with the outcome.
A German Europe arouses old and new resentments among the country's neighbors. It is a shift that has been particularly obvious in Greece and Portugal in recent months. In the past, many citizens were quick to blame "Brussels" when something went wrong in their countries. Now "Berlin" is turning into the new expletive.
This is why all German governments to date have tried to disguise their own interests and ambitions as European or trans-Atlantic. It was a smart strategy, because Germany's partners don't want to see a boastful Germany. They're afraid of it. But Merkel has paid little attention to such concerns, preferring to protect German coffers than the tempers of others.
In return, she now has to live with a Europe that doesn't suit Germany economically at all. In contrast to Germany, the Mediterranean countries -- which have a strong presence in the euro zone -- have a tendency to favor state-run industrial policy and protectionism. Berlin's important allies in the fight over free trade and a uniform domestic market, like the British, have now been relegated to the periphery. And in many respects the Germans have more in common with the Poles, Danes and Swedes than with the Greeks, Spaniards and the French. But their voices will not be as important from now on. As a result, Germany will be integrating with countries whose economic culture is particularly foreign to its own.
"We need a new bracket that connects the euro zone and the European Union," says Ulrike Guérot, the German head of the influential European Council on Foreign Relations. "Otherwise we'll lose the EU because we rescued the euro."
Another problem is that the leading power, Germany, lacks political stability. The two parties in its coalition government, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP), can't even agree on a minor tax reform, and the FDP still has to survive a membership vote over the permanent bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). And, once again, Germany's Federal Constitutional Court has expressed doubts over the manner in which the parliament is involved in crisis policy. The hegemon is looking a little pale on the domestic front.
Subduing the French
At the European level, the German government is still moving full-steam ahead. Its next goal is to amend the Lisbon treaties that regulate the structures of the EU.
In a letter to FDP members of parliament, Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle mentioned a few reforms. They include automatic sanctions for euro-zone members that violate budget deficit limits, which the Commission is to impose, and over which the member states would have no veto. In addition, the Commission and individual euro countries are to be allowed to file legal action against a country's budget at the European Court of Justice. A stability commissioner is to be given the power to withhold funds from the Structural Fund and Cohesion Fund if a country violates its obligations, limiting access to coveted EU subsidies.
The German Foreign Ministry wants to see the ESM transformed into a monetary fund, which could smooth the way for a national bankruptcy. The clearest path to this goal is that of amending the treaties, the ministry said. If this is not politically feasible, the Foreign Ministry argues, a treaty among euro-zone countries ought to be considered.
Merkel's Europe amounts to one underlying rule: Those who do not toe the line will be punished. President Sarkozy smiled sardonically when he was asked in a press conference whether he trusted Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. The smile came from the very top, but Sarkozy hasn't been there in a long time. He had completely different plans for the euro zone -- he didn't want a drastic debt haircut for Greece, for example. But he was unable to assert himself, because of another principle in Merkel's Europe: Those who pay make the rules.
It all sounds like an irony of history: The French wanted the euro to subdue the Germans. Now the euro is helping the Germans to subdue the French.
BY DIRK KURBJUWEIT, RALF NEUKIRCH, CHRISTIAN REIERMANN and CHRISTOPH SCHULT
Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan
We all are possessed
we all are damned
we all are crucified
we all are broken
by attractive technology
by economics of time
by quality of life
and the philosophy of war
one, two, three, four
come dance with me baby brother,
one, two, three, four
give me both your hands
one, two, three, four
dance with me my friends
one, two, three, four
round around, it isn't difficult
And we will only let you be part of that free-trade block if you dance to our tune. And if not, then you won't be part.
Not necessarily. As things stand the UK has pulled in a lot of what are the financial markets of Europe. If the Brits don't want to be European, I don't see why they should be the ones profiting most from our capital markets. Also, do you want me to believe the Canadians and the Mexicans have a relevant voice in the way NAFTA is run?
The fragmentation will merely consist of removing those parts that prevent effective government, I don't see that as a step back for those who stay in the eurozone. I find it extremely amusing to see how the commenting from the side and the feeble attempts of blackmail are snapping back in the face of Brits.
The things I wrote earlier today are things I came up by extrapolating from what I see and read, tonight I see that leading politicians in Germany are saying the same things. The Brits will not get away with rejecting a transaction tax.
Why would it be on Eurozone terms, not like Eurozone has some sort of resource that UK absolutly needs and can only reasonably get from Eurozone. Both sides are intrested in each others markets and any agreement would have to be mutualy beneficial. I am not realy sure how you invision this scenario of yours, where the largely broke eurozone somehow dictates its terms to other nations on the continent.
London has remained one of the worlds top financial centers usualy in number 1 or 2 spot, it was there before there was an EU and it will likely remain there if it refrains from adopting legisslature that would penalize the very activity they want to promote. For reference in finacial center ratings right now london is number, Frankfurt the nearest eurozone city is in 16.
First of all the eurozone is not broke at all; there is one country in the eurozone that is broke and that country is Greece. There are two more small countries in a questionable state, Ireland and Portugal. Then we have two bigger countries which could get in real trouble, that so far has not materialized. If problems occur then most likely in the shape of liquidity problems rather than solvability problems.
What might cause you to percieve the eurozone as 'broke' is that the other eurozone countries are not willing to help countries that they suspect will not reform drastically enough in return for the help they require. Once that matter gets sorted out, by the governments of those countries, there will be money enough to make the problems go away.
The UK is about 1/10th the size of the eurozone, who will call the shots in that relationship is clear. If you don't believe me look at the history of Switzerland in relation to the EU. It's not like Switzerland had to say very much about what they could take or leave. Leaving it of course meaning being cut out of the freedoms of the EU.
And that is where lies the crux for any country that depends on a trading relation with the eurozone. If that third country will not be given a treatment that is roughly similar to the present deal for a EU country, (Which means; freedom of movement for labour, capital and goods) that country will be facing barriers of all sorts in its dealing with the EU. In the case of the UK the freedom of movement of capital that we now see intra-EU could be replaced with a slightly more restrictive regime that makes it near impossible to trade european markets from London. And that is the end of the city of London and its banks.
Now, you could ask why we would be so mean to the poor Brits? The answer would be that their cherry picking ways are too blatant to ignore at a time where the EU is going through a crisis of a magnitude we have never seen before. Just like the Greeks, Portugese, Spanish, Irish and Italians the Brits will have to decide to be with the program or not be a member.
P.S. you should also be aware that everything becomes fluid under enough pressure; the ECB is not an exception, and we have seen a lot of things happening the last year that were said to be impossible right up till when they happened. If the ECB changes tack, the 'shortage' will disappear overnight, and the crisis is over.
So...Germany finally won WWII?
They seemed to be good at it in Greece, too!
So is it you Hazir across the channel or Veldan across the pond who apparently has this subscription to UK newspapers?
I can't help but noticing this discussion is going on in D&D, where one is actually supposed to invest somewhat into the subject matter before barging into a discussion. That includes knowing what might be funny and what has long stopped being funny.
Don't mention the war is something Brits should start to take serious too. Bringing it up every time Germany asserts itself is not just annoying Germans any longer. It just makes you look as ridiculous as Serbs obsessing over Kosovo field.
There are 23 other countries in the EU that have suffered worse at the hands of nazi-Germany, that don't feel they fucking need to bring up WW2 every second sentence when they talk about European relations.
I'm confused, I didn't think Veldan was English. Oops.
The thing is about being "funny" or "long stopped being funny" but most especially about obsession is this ...
We have been debating the Euro and Europe for over a decade. In that time if we were to compare how many times I've insulted Germany and Germans versus how many times you've insulted Britain and Brits, you'll find out which one is really obsessed. It wasn't even a Brit who mentioned WWII here yet which nation gets insulted? Quel surprise
And here I am, watching an item about the EU and Germany on BBC's newsnight, 'lightened up' with some cute thirties music in the background. Wouldn't suprise me if they considered 'Tomorrow belongs to me' coming up with that piece of fun. I don't think I am seeing ghosts Randblade, I think you are either turning a blind eye to a very nasty undertone in the British attitude towards Europe and Germany or you are trying to plaster it over so that people who don't know any better won't notice from which side the real nasty comes.
We've been speaking to each other for over a decade, how about we judge each other on our own records than some item in the media. The media is afterall by no means universally consistent, although we tend to be.
A sense of humour is a British trait Veldan.
Yes, something I learned while watching Faulty Towers as a kid.
The general populace or the government and state controlled media? The Lybians seem to be quite pleased at our help liberating them.
We also spend one of the highest percentages of GDP in the world on foreign aid, largely to Arab and African nations.