I've asked for aggregate data from yourself for ages and you've refused to provide anything other than a fall in sterling. Provide some of this "overwhelming evidence" that you've apparently seen.
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I've asked for aggregate data from yourself for ages and you've refused to provide anything other than a fall in sterling. Provide some of this "overwhelming evidence" that you've apparently seen.
A sudden, massive fall in business confidence isn't evidence. Your one outlier case is evidence, however. Right.
Are you sure this is the argument you want to make?Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
The pound dropping is expected to take some of the sting off of the impact of Brexit for exporters, sure.
However, as you yourself have pointed out, only a small percentage of UK businesses export to the EU. That small percentage constitutes about 80% of all small-to-medium UK businesses that export period.
You currently have access to the single market. If you lose or risk losing access to that market in the future, that will have a negative impact on your exports.
British exports tend to be high value and relatively insensitive to minor price-changes brought on by changes in currency value. The last time the pound experienced a significant drop, there was no major positive impact on export volume. This may be different in the case of a more sustained pressure on the pound but in that case the boost in exports will be countered by barriers to trade in the form of tariffs, restrictions, paperwork etc as well as be sensitive to negative changes in the global economy.
While an increase in trade brought about by the lower value of the pound can perhaps help reduce your current account deficit, that increase in trade will have to be pretty huge--which is unlikely--and also sustained--which is uncertain. Exporters may perhaps see their profit margins grow for a short while, and consumer-driven imports may decline, but that's not necessarily good for your country.
You can manage your current account deficit partly thanks to your financial account surplus. If that surplus were to be reduced--not an unlikely consequence of the threat of Brexit--the consequences may not be offset quickly or completely enough by any increase in exports you might see from your falling currency. Ordinary people and small-to-medium businesses would feel the pain most keenly.
The one major positive outcome we might expect or hope for is for your economy to become more balanced and less reliant on financial services. But that's kinda like saying that one positive effect of becoming severely ill or being locked up in a north-korean prison-camp is that you might lose some body-fat.
Mate, it's good to have a positive outlook, but optimism and positivity should be tempered by at least a small dose of realism.
That could happen. It depends on the actions of either of those two more than on a willingness of the EU to let them participate. However, as you know the EU doesn't do deals for parts of the EU. The reason for termination of your participation in Erasmus wasn't that we didn't want you in Erasmus but that we don't do deals with countries that differentiate between the citizens of EU memberstates. If Switzerland stops denying Croatians equal treatment, then I am certain you participation in any EU program is welcomed.Quote:
Originally Posted by earthJoker
You must be joking right? One producer of an outlandish transport mode that just happens to rely on purely local labour and parts is your example for how wonderful things are if your currency crashes? For most exporters their products are way more complex in terms of cost factors so they'll hardly benefit from a lower currency at all. For all you know these people may not sell a single hovercraft in the UK any longer because they aren't energy efficient enough, with gas prices going through the roof and all.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
Also, inquiries are hardly sales.
It's not proof no, never said it was. It's no more and no less than anecdotal evidence of an opportunity available.
As it happens, I have spent a good deal of time in a country which had an ever declining pound, and it was a source of joy to nobody who wasn't already a millionaire in dollar terms.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
I don't want an ever-declining pound. I am OK with a one-off declined pound that helps us through the adjustment of our Brexit transition and will likely then appreciate back up once the uncertainty has been removed.
You realise you're then just wishing for another source of insecurity with no obvious benefits?Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
Freely floating exchange rates are never secure, a one-off adjustment (so long as it doesn't lead to permanent decline) like one-off inflation is not always a bad thing.
Sinking your currency is not merely marginally different than having a floating currency.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
I'm not talking about sinking our currency. The pound/euro exchange rate is still higher than it was for most of late 2008 to late 2013.
What I mean is that you want gradual adjustments, not 10% drops in a matter of days.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
A one off step change especially if it is in response to a one off shock can be safer than perpetual decline. A 2% fall every year for five years may be more gradual than an overnight shock but if it is permanently like that then it isn't very healthy.
We will see, the scary thing for a Brit should be is that the BoE pretty much has no amunition left to react to any follow up crisis.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
I don't really follow the exchange rates, but wasn't the EU economy and the euro also hurt by the referendum? Not really the best ratio to look at then.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
Whereas the dollar is appreciating globally due to its own economy and rising interest rates and interest rate expectations, so not really the best comparison either.
The Euro is falling for a long times compared to $ and CHF. If a falling currency is as troubling as Hazir says, there must be something terribly, terribly wrong with the Euro. :oQuote:
Originally Posted by Flixy
Just came across this quote by the new leader of the post-factual faction of the Conservative Party:
Was there a single honest Leave campaigner?Quote:
In April 2013 at the Hansard Society’s annual parliamentary affairs lecture, Leadsom warned against the UK leaving the European Union, stating that "I think it would be a disaster for our economy and it would lead to a decade of economic and political uncertainty at a time when the tectonic plates of global success are moving.
The point was that a collapsing currency is a bad thing, just like a too rapid rise is doing no country a favour.Quote:
Originally Posted by earthJoker
And my point is that the Euro is going for a long time as well.
If you're looking at the CHF-EU rate yes, but the relevant benchmark is the USD. Also, the Swiss franc would be a nice example of how detrimental it is to see your currency jump.Quote:
Originally Posted by earthJoker
Erm, no:Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
http://exchangeconversions.com/chart...rt-5-years.jpg
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=EURUSD=X&t=5y
The dollar being stable to the CHF was one of the reason to drop the Euro. The other was Maria Dragi.
Whatever, have fun with your reactions to something I did not say or imply in the first place.
I would have said something very similar in 2013. A number of facts changed since then.Quote:
Originally Posted by Loki
You won't hear me deny that the euro zone's economy has issues, too.Quote:
Originally Posted by earthJoker
Understatement of the year LOL
I just find it - let's say - amusing that you point your finger at the falling pound, while the Euro does the same thing. Against the dollar!Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
A currency plummeting like that is both a cause for concern in and of itself as well as a sign of underlying problems. If we agree that sudden plunges are mostly bad (although gradual decline may be more okay) then yeah, it was bad that the euro plummeted like that a couple of years ago.
The reasons for the drop and the consequences for the Eurozone are not necessarily the same as in the case of the UK and the pound. If we're interested in having this discussion then it would be better to go deeper rather than to just make broad generalizations that may or may not be accurate in these specific cases.
Really? Which facts changed that would make Brexit cause an economic collapse in 2013 but not 2016?Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
A lot of very related facts, firstly the risks of leaving have fallen considerably:Quote:
Originally Posted by Loki
1: All figures for every year until 2011 (not sure if 2012 figures had been released yet) was that the clear majority of exports were always going to the EU. That has turned on its head now and that proportion has been falling fast.
2: The Eurocrisis was supposed to be ending, instead Eurosclerosis has become ever more embedded. There is no clear end to the problems in Europe.
3: Related to both of the above the vast, vast majority of export growth in recent years has gone to nations outside of the EU.
The costs of membership have gone up:
4: In 2014 the UK was ordered to pay £1.7 billion extra to the EU because our growth has been outperforming the EU's growth.
5: Since then every year we have continued to grow considerably better than the permanently mired in depression Eurozone, this will inevitably cause a repeat of 4 next time there's a review.
The potential has gone away:
6: We were going to have serious and fundamental reform of the EU and our relationship of it in a renegotiation that was ongoing from our PM with the EU.
7: The renegotiation result was a massive slap in the face and a message of "screw you" we're not changing and we don't take you seriously.
So that's seven key facts that changed just for starters. The risks of leaving are less, the costs of staying is more and the principles are different. Point 7 is why every politically interested Tory I know in the north who previously supported Remain changed their mind and switched to Leave. There's simply no point continuing a relationship with someone that isn't interested in what you want.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/10/wo...ritain-eu.html Nothing to see here. Continue making England great again.
:(
England already is great and will continue to be. Xenophobia has always existed and needs fighting not excusing like you're doing. :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by Loki
FFS that's not racism or xenophobia. The Euros are on, cars flying twin England flags appear every two years at this time of year as regular as clockwork.Quote:
In a street lined with Eastern European shops, a car was recently parked with two English flags fluttering from its side mirrors.
Modern journalism at its best. Not even knowing that it's Euro 2016.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
Weren't they already out?Quote:
Originally Posted by earthJoker
Not during the vote, and plenty of people leave it on for some time after.
And even if it isn't, funny that an american newspaper complains about it, not like Americans are known for flag waving...
What's funny is that, of all the things in that article one could choose to focus on, people choose to focus on the least important and least interesting aspect. #notallflags
I like the idea of fighting xenophobes by placating them and giving in to their xenophobic demands. Very Sun-Tzu, it'll totally psych 'em out.
And I like fighting xenophobes by vanning flags during football. Like some young Greens in Germany demanded
#notallflags #crazyyounggreens :rolleyes: