Geopolitical impact of Brexit

We sign a deal with all leaders of the EU including but not limited to the President of France. Given the nature of the EU, France and Germany are two absolutely critical nations to deal with.

I don't want a rabid nationalist elected, who do you think I want elected? I don't expect Hollande to win re-election, I think that given the historic rivalry between our nations any deal we start with Hollande, his successor (regardless of who it is) will try to make worse for us as a "success" for them. If we simply negotiate with someone who is actually going to be in charge the whole negotiation then we can have a more honest negotiation. Any time spent talking seriously with Hollande is time wasted.

Apparently, national interests exist only for Britain. Pray tell what you're going to do when you fail to reach an accord with the EU before the next French president leaves office? Start over?

He also overlooks the tiny matter of the veto powers of the various member countries.

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Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro

He also overlooks the tiny matter of the veto powers of the various member countries.

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That depends a bit on the form the negotiations take. If it's merely an exit deal there is no veto. If there's a mixed deal there is a veto. And of course there's the vote in the EP, a place where they are even less inclined to tinker with the basic tennets than in the capitals of the memberstates.

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Originally Posted by Loki

Apparently, national interests exist only for Britain. Pray tell what you're going to do when you fail to reach an accord with the EU before the next French president leaves office? Start over?

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The next French President's term is over 2 years, not just a few more months. If we start now we end up having to start over in a few months time anyway, everyone knows that.

Well Frankurt is already insisting on giving London a good deal. This could very well turn out in a Germany vs France problem.

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Originally Posted by earthJoker

Well Frankurt is already insisting on giving London a good deal. This could very well turn out in a Germany vs France problem.

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As such that doesn't even make sense. What are you talking about.

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Frankfurt Pushes for U.K. to Access Single Market in Financial Services
U.K. access in financial services would bring benefits after the Brexit vote, says Frankfurt Main Finance

FRANKFURT—Frankfurt will push for the U.K. to be allowed the maximum possible access to the single market in financial services following the country’s vote to quit the European Union, even as it hopes to attract jobs from a Brexit fallout.

Frankfurt officials said that while U.K. cannot be given unconditional access to the single market, it will benefit Frankfurt to see London maintain its status as global heavyweight located in the region.
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The French government has insisted U.K. financial services would lose single-market access if the British government refuses to play by the rules of the EU. Frankfurt will press policy makers in Berlin and Brussels to grant the U.K. the maximum access possible, conditional on what trade agreement London reaches.

“We clearly disagree with any sort of punishment,” Mr. Väth said.

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http://www.wsj.com/articles/frankfur...ket-1468250684

That is quite literally the exact same position almost everyone has had since forever. Conditional access. Follow ze rules.

I am pretty certain that Frankfurt has no say in the future role of London. I can imagine why you would want to keep Geman banking the cosy clique it is today but even without punishment there are morcels to be had too juicy to say no to them.

Merkel will hear the call from Frankfurt, so far she always had.

The call is for Frankfurt to be a secundairy center, that's going to convince the French of exactly what?

The main reason I can see for this 'demand' is that Frankfurt is making a last ditch effort to avoid full a blown bank union.

For good reason, they've not lost all leave of their senses.

Not having a bank union actually has prolongued the financial crisis in Europe.

Who cares about "in Europe"?

We were talking about the Germans, are they suffering more or less of a crisis by not having a bank union?

The crisis "in Europe" could have been addressed years ago if massive fiscal transfers were put in place from Germany, Netherlands etc to Greece, Spain etc - but the Germans haven't been willing to agree to that.

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Originally Posted by RandBlade

Who cares about "in Europe"?

We were talking about the Germans, are they suffering more or less of a crisis by not having a bank union?

The crisis "in Europe" could have been addressed years ago if massive fiscal transfers were put in place from Germany, Netherlands etc to Greece, Spain etc - but the Germans haven't been willing to agree to that.

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Actually, I don't feel like it's worth my while to discuss this with a Brexiteer.

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Originally Posted by RandBlade

The crisis "in Europe" could have been addressed years ago if massive fiscal transfers were put in place from Germany, Netherlands etc to Greece, Spain etc - but the Germans haven't been willing to agree to that.

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So what exactly is Draghi doing?

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Originally Posted by earthJoker

So what exactly is Draghi doing?

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He's filling in as the politicians put off the hard decisions.

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Originally Posted by earthJoker

So what exactly is Draghi doing?

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Trying to keep the plates spinning but can't unilaterally make decisions. Someone else here may not want to discuss an uncomforable truth I'm shining a light on but Germans like Schauble are abundantly clear - he is not willing to write a blank cheque "for Europe" and why should he?

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Originally Posted by RandBlade

Trying to keep the plates spinning but can't unilaterally make decisions. Someone else here may not want to discuss an uncomforable truth I'm shining a light on but Germans like Schauble are abundantly clear - he is not willing to write a blank cheque "for Europe" and why should he?

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Correction; some things I don't discuss with you. Because you're 'out' and thus your opinions are not very relevant. No need to get worked up about them then.

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Originally Posted by RandBlade

Trying to keep the plates spinning but can't unilaterally make decisions. Someone else here may not want to discuss an uncomforable truth I'm shining a light on but Germans like Schauble are abundantly clear - he is not willing to write a blank cheque "for Europe" and why should he?

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Schäuble also said: "Out is out." That's also an "uncomfortable truth" you don't want to hear.

I respect Schauble and heard that clearly. He's entering negotiations at his strongest starting point for his nation, just as he always does and just as we need to too. Everyone can learn lessons from Schauble.

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Originally Posted by RandBlade

Trying to keep the plates spinning but can't unilaterally make decisions. Someone else here may not want to discuss an uncomforable truth I'm shining a light on but Germans like Schauble are abundantly clear - he is not willing to write a blank cheque "for Europe" and why should he?

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Draghi wrote a blank cheque ("Whatever it takes"). And Germany is paying for it.

As begrudgingly and slowly as possible.

A rapid set of fiscal transfers and banking union could have ended the crisis (for now) already but as much as that would be good "for Europe", Schauble isn't off his rocker so it hasn't happened.

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Originally Posted by RandBlade

A rapid set of fiscal transfers and banking union could have ended the crisis (for now) already but as much as that would be good "for Europe", Schauble isn't off his rocker so it hasn't happened.

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A bigger, faster kick would just have moved the rock further down the road. It wouldn't have solved anything.

Hence "(for now)"

To end something for now is actually an oxymoron now that I think about it.

It's the Jesus version of dying: "Well guys, I am dying (for now)".

Or its a recognition that life goes on and we don't have final solutions.Any problem solved can always return years later, the difference is that for a few years the problem would have been over rather than ongoing but in the background.

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Originally Posted by RandBlade

Or its a recognition that life goes on and we don't have final solutions.

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It's been attempted in Europe, I don't think that was a good idea :o

Not sure how significant this is from our new Chancellor of the Exchequer "we are leaving the Single Market now it is about negotiating access". Not sure if that rules out EEA or if he views the EEA as negotiating access.

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Originally Posted by RandBlade

Or its a recognition that life goes on and we don't have final solutions.Any problem solved can always return years later, the difference is that for a few years the problem would have been over rather than ongoing but in the background.

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The problem is not really gone if you fighting the symptoms. You can live with it, but it isn't solved.

What you suggest is not a solution, just a larger dose of Aspirin.

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Originally Posted by RandBlade

Not sure how significant this is from our new Chancellor of the Exchequer "we are leaving the Single Market now it is about negotiating access". Not sure if that rules out EEA or if he views the EEA as negotiating access.

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It means the same as Brexit is Brexit. But it also means he is basically in favor of a quick article 50 process.

Longterm it's the smart approach.

Brexit is Brexit was meaningless fluff to put the kibosh on any suggestions that as a Remainer May would reneg on the referendum result as it is legally advisory only.

It has no deeper meaning.

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Originally Posted by RandBlade

Brexit is Brexit was meaningless fluff to put the kibosh on any suggestions that as a Remainer May would reneg on the referendum result as it is legally advisory only.

It has no deeper meaning.

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Of course it has meaning, but I don't think she's stupid enough to make it mean anything specific. I noticed she said there would be no attempt to take you back into the EU through the backdoor. That is probably a very good idea, it also means that you could get back through the front entrance. Changed circumstances, General Election Platforms and all that.

Of course that is always an option. No government can bind it's successors. That is part of the point of Parliamentary Democracy.

A General Election platform could consist of bringing back hanging, unilateral nuclear disarmament or any other crazy nonsense this government won't do.

What do you think the odds are that a British government both could be elected on that platform and convince all 27 members to swiftly and easily let us back in?

Given that 48% of your electorate chose to stay in the EU despite all real and/or percieved shortcomings? I'd say there's a relative high possibility of that happening. And I presume it's a given that I'd rather not see it happen.

Yeah but see that's just a democratic vote with a high turnout. These days the typical British general election has a lower turnout, young people are even less likely to vote than they were in the referendum and I'm not sure if winning the popular vote would ensure a majority in parliament.

Johnson already managed to get booed at a reception at the French embassy. Negative spin or was a substantial number of people there really upset with him being there in that role?

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Originally Posted by Aimless

Yeah but see that's just a democratic vote with a high turnout. These days the typical British general election has a lower turnout, young people are even less likely to vote than they were in the referendum and I'm not sure if winning the popular vote would ensure a majority in parliament.

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True, but it doesn't mean that EU membership couldn't be back on the menu before you could spell Brexit.

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Originally Posted by Hazir

Given that 48% of your electorate chose to stay in the EU despite all real and/or percieved shortcomings? I'd say there's a relative high possibility of that happening. And I presume it's a given that I'd rather not see it happen.

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48% when the full force of the government and the civil service and incumbency was promoting the status quo. When referenda almost always see a swing to the status quo.

Once Brexit is real, it will no longer be the status quo. It won't have the full backing of the government, the Prime Minister, a £9m leaflet campaign (when the campaigns were only permitted a £7m spending cap all campaign), the Treasury etc, etc, etc - but most of all a lot of people voted Remain not due to any great British love for the European Union but due to fear of the consequences of leaving. If we've left already, that fear will no longer be an issue as having left will be the new status quo.

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Originally Posted by Hazir

Johnson already managed to get booed at a reception at the French embassy. Negative spin or was a substantial number of people there really upset with him being there in that role?

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Apparently he got booed by some of the Brits there, applauded by the French. I don't know, wasn't there obviously. Inappropriate behaviour.
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