American Civil War 2

So on the one side we have a person who has not only won the popular vote, but even managed to win under a system heavily stacked against people from his side to win the Presidential elections. Logically he should be the next president of the United States come january 20th. On the other hand we have a man who has decided to game the system as much as he can. And the system is such that if he gets the full support of his party he could actually stop the winner of the election from becoming president. At first I thought we were just dealing with the mad raving of a man who's just a sore loser. But it seems that mostly Republicans who no longer are active in politics are speaking out against him. From the people whose words count a whole lot more when it comes to which way the US will turn we hear a lot less clear messages. Almost like they're willing to take the game to it's ugly conclusion this time. With the end result of a second Trump administration.

How bad will things come if the Republican Party tries to inaugurate a President Trump on january 20th? How can people who are not intent on destroying the system of government in the US prevent it?
How worried are you?

I'll be honest, I'm quite worried. Precisly because too few Republicans reject Trump's rhetoric.

Because it's not the fact he's challenging the result. It's the fact he claimed months ago the only way he could lose is by fraud. These are the words of a dictator. And very few Republicans even raised an eyebrow. We now are seeing the continuation of this process and the intent is clear. And still, almost no opposition from Republicans.

It's sickening.

There's no chance of a civil war. There is a chance that Trump will attempt to hold on to power, and it's upsetting that this is even plausible, but he's replaced enough officials in positions of power with yes-men and sycophants that they might be able to collectively convince themselves that they have some sort of chance of success. They don't, of course, but they might try anyways. There's a lot of crazy on display here. If they do try something, this would be a disaster that would become a major obstruction to fixing all the damage that led to Trump and that Trump caused.

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Originally Posted by Wraith

There's no chance of a civil war. There is a chance that Trump will attempt to hold on to power, and it's upsetting that this is even plausible, but he's replaced enough officials in positions of power with yes-men and sycophants that they might be able to collectively convince themselves that they have some sort of chance of success. They don't, of course, but they might try anyways. There's a lot of crazy on display here. If they do try something, this would be a disaster that would become a major obstruction to fixing all the damage that led to Trump and that Trump caused.

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May I point out that you start very different from how you end ?

This might help you guys relax:

Twitter Link

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Originally Posted by Hazir

May I point out that you start very different from how you end ?

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It won't be a civil war. It would be a very noisy trespasser being dealt with, and a lot of butthurt from his supporters, and a lot of vindictiveness from his opposition. It would be a disaster, but it's not going hot.

There isn't going to be a civil war, y'all are looney.

The chance of a civil war is the highest it's been since 1876. Trump convinced 80% of Republican voters that elections are pointless. If Biden gets inaugurated and there's a major controversy, at least some of these Trumpists won't wait until the next election to seek redress.

And if Trump manages to get sworn in as president on Jan. 20, all bets are off.

https://thehill.com/homenews/news/52...o-concede-poll

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Poll: Nearly 8 in 10 Americans say Biden won, despite Trump refusing to concede

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The survey was part of a larger one having to do with the election process. Seventy percent of Americans said they trust their election officials to “do their job honestly,” 72 percent said they believe the loser of the election should concede defeat and 60 percent believe a peaceful transition of power is coming in January.


The poll had a sample size of 1,363 and had a credibility interval of about 5 points.

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With all the reservations in place with regard to polls, still, this is reassuring.

Open civil war in a first world country is not going to happen in this modern world.

A battle of ideologies fought largely online, sure, with the odd protests and clashes spilling out on the streets, but little if anything more.

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Originally Posted by Ziggy Stardust

https://thehill.com/homenews/news/52...o-concede-poll



With all the reservations in place with regard to polls, still, this is reassuring.

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It's... the exact opposite of reassuring? 2 out of every 5 Americans don't believe there will be a peaceful transition of power? More than 1 in 4 Americans—presumably 9 out of 10 Republicans—don't believe the loser should concede defeat? 1 in 5 don't believe the actual winner won? Antidemocratic beliefs that would be fringe kookery elsewhere are basically within the realm of mainstream politics among these respondents, and many people are worried about things that people living in a modern democracy shouldn't have to worry about.

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Originally Posted by Timbuk2

Open civil war in a first world country is not going to happen in this modern world.

A battle of ideologies fought largely online, sure, with the odd protests and clashes spilling out on the streets, but little if anything more.

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Republicans are not distancing themselves from the tactics of Trump. They have shown how they think about restraints versus clinging to power in Supreme Court appointments. If they are serious about a second Trump presidency they will be saddling the country with a government that may be legal but utterly illegitimate.

Little over four years ago 'sensible people' said a Trump presidency could not happen. Said Brexit could not happen.

I think there are a lot of things that can happen despite them being extremely unthinkable.

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Originally Posted by Aimless

It's... the exact opposite of reassuring? 2 out of every 5 Americans don't believe there will be a peaceful transition of power? More than 1 in 4 Americans—presumably 9 out of 10 Republicans—don't believe the loser should concede defeat? 1 in 5 don't believe the actual winner won? Antidemocratic beliefs that would be fringe kookery elsewhere are basically within the realm of mainstream politics among these respondents, and many people are worried about things that people living in a modern democracy shouldn't have to worry about.

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Let me put it this way, I thought the numbers were even worse than that based on a survey held just after the results were in on Saturday. That one said that 70% of the Republicans don't believe Biden won the election. Now 60% say he did win. So with regards to trends, it's trending in the right direction.

Don't get me wrong, I see your point on the numbers still being more than just significant.

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Originally Posted by Wraith

There is a chance that Trump will attempt to hold on to power, and it's upsetting that this is even plausible, but he's replaced enough officials in positions of power with yes-men and sycophants that they might be able to collectively convince themselves that they have some sort of chance of success. They don't, of course, but they might try anyways.

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This is perhaps the only bright side to his current tantrum. No one is going to stand up to Trump right now because they all want their pardons. If he is so convinced that he will hold onto power, and he continues to delay delay delay to the bitter end we might actually end up with him forgetting the pardons.

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Originally Posted by Timbuk2

Open civil war in a first world country is not going to happen in this modern world.

A battle of ideologies fought largely online, sure, with the odd protests and clashes spilling out on the streets, but little if anything more.

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A consolidated democracy like America's has also not unconsolidated ever before.

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Originally Posted by Timbuk2

Open civil war in a first world country is not going to happen in this modern world.

A battle of ideologies fought largely online, sure, with the odd protests and clashes spilling out on the streets, but little if anything more.

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Sure, that's why you have checks and balances. Say, how have those been working over the past 4 years?

Difficult to envisage a sequence of events that leads to an actual, straight up civil war. There may be some violence.

A civil war in a country with a nuclear arsenal would be wild, though.

Outright civil war, no.

Sustained insurgency?

Probably not.

Terrorism?

Highly likely—esp. if Trump loses.

They have that already.

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Originally Posted by Steely Glint

Difficult to envisage a sequence of events that leads to an actual, straight up civil war. There may be some violence.

A civil war in a country with a nuclear arsenal would be wild, though.

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A number of political assassinations? They do become more likely and easier in a divided nation.

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Originally Posted by Ziggy Stardust

https://thehill.com/homenews/news/52...o-concede-poll

With all the reservations in place with regard to polls, still, this is reassuring.

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Conversely more than 2 in 10 don't think that Biden won the election despite the fact that he fucking won it. Even Fox called it for him, it wasn't even close he won over 300 electoral votes, and more than 2 in 10 don't accept that. That is depressing.

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Originally Posted by Aimless

Outright civil war, no.


Sustained insurgency?


Probably not.


Terrorism?


Highly likely—esp. if Trump loses.

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What do you mean "if" he loses?

If the outcome of the election is not reversed by SCOTUS or in some other manner.

There have already been 4 attempted terrorist attacks.

Yes, very likely that some of them will be successful, given the sheer size of the crank brigade.

The world is moving on though whatever these terrorist loons do and hopefully the FBI haven't been corrupted enough so they work to stop these attacks.

I was amused at PMQs today that Boris referred to Trump as "the previous President" which I believe has been picked up by CSPAN and others across the Pond. Trump may throw his toys out of the pram but the world is moving on without him.

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Originally Posted by Flixy

Sure, that's why you have checks and balances. Say, how have those been working over the past 4 years?

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Though checks and balances in the weirdness that is the United States currently have eroded steadily, sure, there is nothing that would bring the country to open civil war, even if that steady erosion continued for decades to come - which it wouldn't. A president with a reputation for moderation is about to take the reigns so things are balancing out already.

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Originally Posted by Timbuk2

Though checks and balances in the weirdness that is the United States currently have eroded steadily, sure, there is nothing that would bring the country to open civil war, even if that steady erosion continued for decades to come - which it wouldn't. A president with a reputation for moderation is about to take the reigns so things are balancing out already.

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It takes little more than to weaponize the process of electing a president and your premise of a Biden presidency evaporates.

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Originally Posted by Timbuk2

Though checks and balances in the weirdness that is the United States currently have eroded steadily, sure, there is nothing that would bring the country to open civil war, even if that steady erosion continued for decades to come - which it wouldn't. A president with a reputation for moderation is about to take the reigns so things are balancing out already.

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What makes you so sure? Besides wishful thinking that is.

I think it'll probably be ok. But what if Trump refuses to leave office because he claims the election is fraudulent? Or if some states send electors that don't match their state's results? What then?

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Originally Posted by Flixy

What makes you so sure? Besides wishful thinking that is.

I think it'll probably be ok. But what if Trump refuses to leave office because he claims the election is fraudulent? Or if some states send electors that don't match their state's results? What then?

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If Trump refuses to leave then the Secret Service are more than capable of removing anyone who is trespassing in the White House.

The whole place should be fumigated for the pox before anyone goes in though.

And who commands the secret service? The cabinet will presumably support Trump and not acknowledge they're not in power anymore. If they get conflicting orders who will decide which orders are valid?