... any bets on when the Chinese government is fed up with the antics of those guys and simply decides to glass the country? I don't imagine that Beijing is very happy about them.
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... any bets on when the Chinese government is fed up with the antics of those guys and simply decides to glass the country? I don't imagine that Beijing is very happy about them.
Not bloody likely.
About never.
China puts up with NK kidnapping and sometimes shooting their citizens, regular thefts, and so much more without ever retaliating beyond temporarily cutting off aid every once in a while, so I don't think NK's current hijinks are going to lead to a glassing.
How about China not coming to the aid of NK if they create a military incident?
I don't think they will either way.
While I like that idea, part of me thinks that they would come to NK's aid, just to flex muscle/protect reputation on their sphere of influence.
Again, China's military involvement being off the table would be a relief.
Too much to lose and to little to gain from the intervention (there's also the fact that the intervention would inevitably fail). I have no doubt that China would publicly protest and perhaps try to do something at the UN, but a military intervention is unthinkable.
How so? They did it before. Have they come along that far?
That would depend on how far the response to the incident went. China would probably allow a few punitive actions *guided strikes on some depots, that sort of thing* but they'd step in for anything more than that. Or more accurately they would make it clear that they are distressed enough to step in if we don't cut it right the fuck out and we will listen and stop.Quote:
Originally Posted by Veldan Rath
You and Loki seem to disagree :)
They were a revolutionary regime ruled by a revolutionary leader who didn't give a damn about the economy or the well-being of his country. The leader was also fairly confident that he'd stay in power even if his country's economy (which wasn't particularly large to start with) was destroyed. A war with the US, even a small one, would undermine the legitimacy of the modern Chinese regime, quite possibly leading to a civil war. North Korea simply isn't worth it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Veldan Rath
Xi has a pretty firm control over the military. They'd give him trouble only if the US was clearly responsible for the aggression. I suppose China would become concerned if the US tried to occupy all of North Korea, but that's not terribly likely to happen. I also think that South Korea can arrange a quid pro quo with in exchange for not intervening military if South Korea decides to topple the North Korean regime as a result of some severe provocation. China isn't so isolated that it's desperate to retain a single ally, especially when that ally is anything but useful or reliable.Quote:
Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy
You can bet US and Chinese officials are even now hashing out a deal which dictate how they'll both respond in the event of the Norks going apeshit.
Are you certain about that? I think that policymaking in China is hardly so orderly; even if it were, I doubt whether they'd be willing to deal with the US in such a frank matter on such a strategically critical topic. I'm certain the US is talking to China - probably trying to get them to exert pressure on NK and warning of the potential for rapid escalation into a shooting war - and I'm sure China is doing a lot of serious thinking right now. But coordination on the scale you suggest?Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Glint
I personally have no idea what China will do if things get out of hand. Seemingly, NK is more of a headache for them than an asset, but I don't think Chinese officials see it the same way I do. If a real war were to develop, it's certainly possible they'll sit on the sidelines provided the fighting is the result of a clear NK attack. Even then, though, I think they will be tempted to intervene to prop up the regime (perhaps with some modification at the top) - though I doubt they would directly challenge the US or SK.
I'm just fervently hoping that the bellicose rhetoric is just that, and NK backs down from the rather alarming position they've recently taken. If a war develops (more than just a tit-for-tat incident), it's almost certain that hundreds of thousands would die, by conservative estimates.
With the nuclear arsenals of three separate parties involved, you'd better hope they are. The potential consequences of a miscalculation or misunderstanding are extraordinarily grave. At the very least, one would hope both sides have made it clear to the other where their red lines are.
In other news, Anonymous hacked NK. Amusing, but probably not very helpful.
It's not that it's interested in North Korea as an ally. It's that China is still very interested in probably-outmoded ideas on the importance of buffers and borders. It does not WANT a border controlled by South Korea or any other close ally of the US and/or functional Western democracy. China is not going to allow major Western action against a bordering client state. They'll take it over themselves before things reach that point but it is extremely unlikely they'll even accept things moving that far from the status quo anytime in the next five to six years. They won't be intervening but that will be because they will have made it clear to us, the South Koreans, the Japanese, and the Russians that they'll only tolerate any of us going so far and we'll have accepted that because with the possible exception of the South Koreans all of us would have more problems with a pissed off China than with an acting-out North Korea and we'd sit on the South Koreans.Quote:
Originally Posted by Loki
China won't want to take action directly in North Korea. The biggest risk of a wider conflagration I suspect is not that the Chinese step in to NK ... but that while we're distracted with the North Koreans the Chinese use the opportunity to take some action regarding Taiwan or the Senkaku Islands.
Imagine how much fun this crap is going to be when they do it again in five years, when they actually do have missiles that can reach the US.
When China cuts off military-military contacts over every little tiff over weapons sales to Taiwan or whatever, I'm skeptical of their good sense on this issue.Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Glint
We know what China is willing to accept and China knows what we're willing to accept. Just because China's foreign policy isn't controlled by a single apolitical rational man (hint: neither do we) doesn't mean we should assume it will engage in a highly self-destructive foreign policy.Quote:
Originally Posted by wiggin
According to our newspapers, North Korea "suggested" the evacuation of their embassies not only to western countries but also to China.
Not a very clever move in my eyes.
I sorta agree with those who say their evacuation suggestion is evidence they are bluffing. If they were serious, they would take ambassadors hostage.
The narrative they've been pushing is that the US is attacking them, and they only want to nuke everybody in self-defence. This fits with that narrative; they're asking the embassies to evacuate to keep them safe from the evul Americans. I wouldn't take it as evidence that they're bluffing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreadnaught
I agree with Khen that this isn't a very smart move on their part. The move can be interpreted in a couple of different ways, and none of them are good.
There is a long list of wars that occurred despite neither side initially wanting a war. Kim is really backing himself into a corner here. If he doesn't do anything overtly hostile, he risks being discredited at home. The question is if this act will be sufficiently provocative to produce a severe provocation from the other side. If so, all bets are off. I still don't think that we'll see a war, but we're getting into very dangerous territory. All it will take is a few misunderstandings and overreactions.
Yeah, just imagine a training exercise where someone gets excited.
It's entirely possible we'll see violence but we won't see a war. It doesn't really matter if Kim is backing himself into a corner because Kim isn't really in control. It's not a communist autocracy anymore, it probably wasn't even in Jong il's last years. The politico-military elements controlling the country no longer form a coherent whole. North Korea appears to be more or less intact on the surface because everyone involved has avoided putting real pressure on it since no one wants to see the results of it overtly looking like Somalia. If things do end up going all to hell what we will see is China selecting a faction and backing them as they eradicate their fellows and take over the country, hopefully creating a somewhat less dysfunctional autocracy in the process. And we'll let them because they're the only ones with sufficient penetration to get the job done.
The country might have factionalized, but Kim (and his backers) have the power of the state, and there have already been several purges in the last few years (including right before Kim Jong-Il's death). Anyone who goes directly against Kim's interests or is perceived to have the capacity to do so gets the ax. This kind of system can function only as long as the leadership maintains the loyalty and respect of the elites. A huge loss of face could very well destabilize the political system, allowing officials to criticize Kim and his people without fear of severe reprisals. And once that occurs, all bets are off.
My read is that Kim (and his backers) have the power of the state because their own lieutenants and the other factions *and they themselves* do not have a compelling reason to change that state of affairs. It's entirely possible that so far it has been made clear to them that China would look quite disfavorably on anyone rocking the boat. I think if their massive neighbor was not underwriting the status quo things would be rather more visibly chaotic in North Korea. The current Kim has simply not had the time to secure a truly independent power base, something that is not a less-than-fully-reliable legacy of his father's. As you say, the system relies on loyalty and respect from the elites *or calculated self-interest that sufficiently mirrors them* and what the current regime has is pretty much just fear. I'm not making predictions about what happens if things continue as they are, I'm prognosticating on what happens if they don't. You say all bets are off but I think I've got good money on the result.
I have a nagging suspicion that if Kim actually gave the order to engage in a severe provocation with the US (say an order to lob a missile at an American base) the military, with Chinese assistance, would overthrow him. We won't know until it happens though.
What makes you think Kim is giving the orders?
765. How to justify a nuclear attack? (4/1/2013)
There is a lively stage showin Korea Peninsula in recent days. North Korea had its third nuclear test inFebruary. US and South Korea had a military drill in March. US sent B-52 in thedrill then showed off with B-2 bombers there. N. Korea upgrades the threatalmost everyday. US media is full of the topics such like: “North Korea said itwould attack U.S. military bases on Japan and the Pacific island of Guam ifprovoked.”, “North Korea threatens to 'settle accounts with the US'”, “NorthKorea says enters "state of war" against South”…… But that war onlyexists in the mouth not in reality. It is actually a sale’s advertisement. The commodityis the nuclear weapon.
Quote:
Renewed nuke sale fear after recent NKoreatest
Quote:
By FOSTER KLUG | AssociatedPress – 3/19/2013
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) —North Korea's nuclear test last month wasn't just a show of defiance andnational pride; it also serves as advertising. The target audience, analystssay, is anyone in the world looking to buy nuclear material.
Quote:
North Korea’s Lesson: Nukes for Sale
Bush started Iraq War with aun- existed “WMD”. US won’t make similar mistake again in Iran war. So theydirected a puppet show. In this show, N. Korea bangs the drum: “I have nuclearbomb. I’m enemy of the US. My nuke bomb is on sale if you are hostile to US.Come to pick up a bargain.”Quote:
By GRAHAM T. ALLISONJr. Published: February 12
Who could be interested inbuying a weapon for several hundred millions of dollars? Iran is currentlyinvesting billions of dollars annually in its nuclear quest. While Al Qaeda’score is greatly diminished and its resources depleted, the man who succeededOsama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, has been seeking nuclear weapons for morethan a decade. And then there are Israel’s enemies, including wealthyindividuals in some Arab countries, who might buy a bomb for the militantgroups Hezbollah or Hamas.
So don’t be surprise that USand its Western allies would be attacked by “nuclear terror bombing” next time.Even none “potential customers” attend this “nuke sale booth”, the seller willcreate one. At that time, the “suicide bomber” could never tell truth. Justlike those 911 hijackers, London 7/7/2005 bombers, Madrid bombing perpetratorsand Adam Lanza and his mother in Sandy Hook shooting, they were all arranged tobe dead. Of course, the Feds could gave you evidence from “damaged hard disc”(in Sandy Hook shooting) and “self claimed Mastermind” confession from KhalidSheikh Mohammed (911 case).
You can view the two newsinformation I referred as a psychological opinion direction from the Feds- ajustification for the coming terror attack.
766. China is a member of fraud gang (4/6/2013)
In this soap opera, N. Koreaand US are the main actors playing war game show to the world audience. Anotherimportant actor is China. China is the major supporter of North Korea, withoutits aid, N. Korea couldn’t survive. So when China approved the resolution ofU.N. to sanction on N. Korea, it causes big surprise. China used to veto anyresolution in U.N. if it is anti the “friendship of China and N. Korea”.
Quote:
China voted for new North Korea sanctions.Will it enforce them?
Don’t be blinded by thisaction of China. It’s only a stage performance – a gimmick to lure Iran to thehook. To show that N. Korea is really helpless. Even its long time ally hasabandoned him. So North Korea is eagerly to sell his treasure – the atomicbomb, at a bargain price.Quote:
By Peter Ford, Staff Writer / March 8, 2013
Beijing-When the UN SecurityCouncil imposed new and harsher sanctions on North Korea yesterday to punish itfor its most recent nuclear test, one big part of the story was the fact thatChina had gone along with the resolution.
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-News/2013/0308/China-voted-for-new-North-Korea-sanctions.-Will-it-enforce-them-video
One purpose of sanction isto inspect the cargo shipment by force. If Iran falls into the trap, it will beeasy for US to intercept the “evidence”. The inspector could be China ifnecessary. He joins U.N. sanction. Bush’s “WMD” lie scandal won’t repeat inObama's regime.
China is a secretcollaborator of US. The regime is famous for its corruption. It will doanything – if the bribe is big enough. The Feds is to create big events todistract a framed case. One big event is “terrorist nuke attack”, you have seenmy revelation. The other one is a “natural disaster” – a pandemic of bird flu.
Guessing copied and pasted from elsewhere as its basically a black post on the white background?
SourceQuote:
North Korea warned foreigners in South Korea on Tuesday to leave the country because they were at risk in the event of conflict, the latest threat of war from Pyongyang.
Soaring tensions on the peninsula have been fuelled by North Korean anger over the imposition of U.N. sanctions after its last nuclear arms test in February, creating one of the worst crises since the end of the Korean War in 1953.
"We do not wish harm on foreigners in South Korea should there be a war," said the KCNA news agency, citing its Korea Asia-Pacific Peace Committee.
KCNA said once war broke out "it will be an all-out war, a merciless, sacred, retaliatory war to be waged by (North Korea)."
Meanwhile, US and SK officials state they're highly confident that North Korea is planning to fire off a medium range missile very soon, and US officials are saying that they're ready to intercept that missile. China has halted tourism into North Korea.
Other Source
Meanwhile, North Korean 'officials' are advertising their international marathon.
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/engli...130410_01.html
:rolleyes:
Broken link? I'm sort of impressed by these Westerners who visit North Korea. Any one of them could be swept into a hole and there would be virtually nothing that could be done, at least for several years until there can be a high-profile "mercy" release from the Dear Leader.
He's just acting out because he's ronery.
767. Push Iran tobite the hook (4/15/2013)
To push Iran to bite the hook,they created an earthquake at the purpose to destroy Iran’s nuclear facility.If Iran can’t produce the nuke material by itself, they have to buy from NorthKorea. The mission failed, though.
Pentagon voluntarilyadvertises for the nuke products of North Korea, tries to convince thepotential buyer the merchandise is just what they wanted.Quote:
Quake hits near Iran's nuclear city Bushehr,37 dead
By Yeganeh Torbati andMarcus George DUBAI | Tue Apr 9, 2013
(Reuters) - A powerfulearthquake struck close to Iran's only nuclear power station on Tuesday, ….
…… but the nearby Bushehrnuclear plant was undamaged, according to Iranian officials and the Russiancompany that built it.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...9380HA20130409
Quote:
Pentagon: NKorea could launch nuclearmissile
By ROBERT BURNS and JULIEPACE | Associated Press 4/11/2013
WASHINGTON (AP) — A U.S.intelligence report concludes that North Korea has advanced its nuclear knowhowto the point that it could arm a ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead, ajarring revelation in the midst of bellicose threats from the unpredictablecommunist regime.
http://news.yahoo.com/pentagon-nkore...-politics.html
Sure enough. After the Founder Kim's B-Day the noise out of NK has dropped to a trickle. That's got to be the weirdest internal political system in the world. Except maybe Iran, which appears pretty damn weird too.
