See discussion between Hazir and RB in the UK referendum thread.
In your estimation
- How high is the likelihood (%) of the EU disintegrating before the end of 2016?
- How high is the likelihood of Schengen ending before the end of 2016?
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See discussion between Hazir and RB in the UK referendum thread.
In your estimation
- How high is the likelihood (%) of the EU disintegrating before the end of 2016?
- How high is the likelihood of Schengen ending before the end of 2016?
<1% chance of the EU disintegrating before the end of 2016
Schengen more complicated. In practice Schengen at least partially ended in 2015. De jure I expect Schengen to survive the year, de facto I'd say 50/50.
^^ Same, Same.
Sounds about right. I guess it really depends whether 'we' can get our shit together regarding outer border control. Without that Schengen has not much (de facto) future.
What Randblade said.
It's ridiculous to separate the survival of Schengen and the EU. If one goes the other goes with it. Chances are 50/50.
Why is it that ridiculous? Not all of the EU is even in Schengen.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
Because in Hazir's warped worldview the whole purpose of the EU is to become a single state. In the real world there are other views as to what the EU should be and that irks him which is why he so hates people like me and my countrymen who don't want to leave the EU but have a different view than him as to what the EU is to be.
The EU without Schengen is perfectly viable. The EU without the Euro is perfectly viable. The EU as a single nation without either isn't viable but since it isn't what the EU is that's good news.
Any collapse will be the result of unwillingness of states to cooperate, to imagine that the fall out of something as the collapse of Schengen could be contrained is purely wishfull thinking.Quote:
Originally Posted by Flixy
Otherwise you explain to me why for example the Dutch people would want to remain in a club where the lack of solidarity of net-recievers (i.e. the unwillingness of the Greeks to actually guard their borders) leads to the collapse of a system that pretty much is the life blood of one of our biggest economical sectors (transport).
No you ignorant piece of excrement; what I am talking about is what happens if you start taking apart a working mechanism.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
Same reason anyone else would want to remain in the club, by weighing up the pro's and the negatives and reaching a conclusion as to what is best. Just as we are doing outside of Schengen.
If the club is based purely on puerile conceits like "solidarity", or the absurd notion that co-operation has no limits rather than actual benefits it deserves to fail.
Whereas we are discussing what happens when you put down a mechanism that isn't working. I am in the reality based community.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
Would you take your pro's and con's and stick them where the sun doesn't shine?
No but you can take your delusions and dreams of fiction and write them in a story book where they belong if you please.
The only thing that preoccupies me is hedging against the inevitable. You have fun dreaming about renegotiating.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
If the EU is worth negotiating with it will be possible to get a better deal. If the EU is too blinkered to give us anything then that speaks volumes.
Take your very own logic. Why should we as the people who are paying into the system stay in the club if those who are net recipients from us are not willing to co-operate?
I would phrase it differently. "He who pays the piper calls the tune", we pay now its time to listen to some British music whether it is to your taste or not.
Trying to get a deal with an organisation that's dissolving that's real sensible and logical.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
I don't think the organisation is dissolving though and put the odds of it happening this year at <1%. How many members have left currently?
To those of you who share RB's outlook: do you believe your estimate is likely to change after the March summit?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flixy
"Ever-closer union" is the defining phrase of Hazir's religion. If the EU ever takes a step backward, it isn't the EU anymore but some heretical apostasy. He can entertain the idea of it getting smaller but the idea that it might ever take a step backward along the path of integration is anathema.
No it wont. You know what. Whenever you post a prediction here, I usually assume the opposite. You know why? You are so bad at making the prediction that your chance is less than 50% to be right, flipping a coin would do better.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
It is as if you think that your prediction would change reality in some way.
Predictions should always change if new information is available. In the case of the March summit I think we will only get new information about the future of Schengen.Quote:
Originally Posted by Aimless
REALLY ? You never considered that I am simply fed up trying to talk some common sense into idiots of the kind we see in Randblade who doesn't understand that if you start disassembling any mechanism, even a bad functioning one, while it is still working creates massive damage. You never considered that I have decided that with the number of reckless populists in Europe I feel that I have better things to do with my time? Like hedging against what these idiots are happily going to bring about?Quote:
Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy
What is your obsession with the EU Hazir? If you could wave a magic wand and have the EU of your dreams what would the benefits of it be to you?
Calling namens when you run out of arguments has become a trend here.
No leaving bad mechanisms in place is what causes damage. If that is the best you've got, it's bad but it's in place so let's leave it then you know you've lost the argument.
If you don't mind; I have better things to do with my time than a failed experiment in European cooperation.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lewkowski
Which "mechanism" are you speaking of and what damage do you expect it to cause if left in place?Quote:
Originally Posted by RandBlade
I was responding to the philosophy behind this insanity:I'm not an idiot for suggesting that badly functioning mechanisms should be changed, quite the opposite that is entirely the duty of governments to take the long-term structural changes necessary rather than merely look at immediate short term tinkerings.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
The idea that "yes this mechanism is bad but its in place so we'll leave it there untouched" like Hazir proposes is not a sign of genius and opposing that is not idiocy. Leaving outdated, failed or bad mechanisms in place that don't belong there is lazy, short-termist and just incompetent. It isn't clever.
If a bad mechanism is in place causing damage (or is simply not as good as a better one) then even if there is a short-term price for moving to something better then we should not avoid difficult decisions for that reason alone.
One could ask what your obsession is what is your obsession with the United States :confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by Lewkowski
But seriously, until a few days ago I had no idea that the EU was offering proposals to the UK. I find it really surprising and wonder if it's a bit all for show, and ultimately this is heading towards a high-stakes referendum.
Yes but the EU isn't a country. It would be like me being very passionate about NATO. Sure you can be but our national identity is that of 'we are part of NATO' but I get the impression being part of the EU is of vast importance to him.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreadnaught
I think it is, but in this kind of politics opinion trumps fact. So you and I are both wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreadnaught
Yes, "National Identity" is an important part of politics. Can you really criticize EU states/nations when they're doing the same thing US states are doing?Quote:
Originally Posted by Lewkowski