What would happen if Sweden were to Swexit + unilaterally withdraw from conventions?

I have been pulled into a discussion with members of the many-headed brain-deficient mob represented in our parliament by the undeniably racist Sweden Democrats. During this discussion, an interesting thing has become apparent: many of those who support the Sweden Democrats seem to feel that Sweden should just give the EU the finger and leave. Sweden is a sovereign state that doesn't need to be pushed around by those corrupt asshats in Brussels blah blah blah. In the context of the discussion, these same people should also be opposed to the Geneva convention on the rights of refugees. I am currently trying to get a clearer picture of whether or not these knob-heads really feel Sweden should unilaterally leave the EU and also a number of international agreements, but I also got to wondering:

- what would happen if a smallish fairly neutral Western country such as Sweden really did leave the EU as well as the convention on refugee rights?

What would the economic consequences be eg. wrt trade, free movement, sanctions, fines etc?

What would the political consequences be eg. wrt ability to reach benefical agreements with other countries?

A vast majority of Swedish trade is with the EU. If Sweden left the EU, it would either have to put up with substantial tariffs on its products, which would make a huge dent on an economy that's fairly heavily dependent on trade. Or it could join the EEA, which would mean no tariffs, but also would require Sweden to abide by the same laws it would be trying to escape by leaving the EU.

Politically, it would be harder to predict. I imagine the effect of Sweden having a fascist government would be larger than the effect of it leaving the EU.

As for the refugee part: the rules relating to refugees are not just laid out in formal treaties but are also part of international customary law. You can't "leave" customary law. Sweden would be in violation whether it exited the formal conventions or not. And while the UN wouldn't "send its troops" to punish Sweden, neighboring countries would probably not take a very positive view of that action, and this would isolate Sweden from other European states.

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Originally Posted by Loki

Politically, it would be harder to predict. I imagine the effect of Sweden having a fascist government would be larger than the effect of it leaving the EU.

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https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com...fa8b72b8ff.gif

As if any change from the currently insane politics of Sweden is leading straight into fascism. :bulb:

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As for the refugee part: the rules relating to refugees are not just laid out in formal treaties but are also part of international customary law. You can't "leave" customary law. Sweden would be in violation whether it exited the formal conventions or not. And while the UN wouldn't "send its troops" to punish Sweden, neighboring countries would probably not take a very positive view of that action, and this would isolate Sweden from other European states.

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The neighbors of Sweden are Denmark Norway and Finland. Denmark and Finland are going this direction already. Sweden is by far the most liberal of the Nordic countries. I am sure that the neighbors will see it with pleasure when they get a new ally. Especially Denmark which is about tighten the already very strict laws.

It would also be interesting to see the effect on the UK if Sweden left the EU.

You may not have heard this but SD aren't just about "lowering immgration rates to reasonable levels". A government led by SD wouldn't be fascist in the historical sense but it would be a hell of a lot closer than any Swedish govt has been since the days of eugenics.

Loki, I don't think Sweden's immediate neighbours would be all that bothered and would perhaps instead take after Sweden's example (already heading in that direction after all). What I'm wondering is what countries outside Scandinavia may do and whether or not it'd matter. You can't just reject customary international law, but what would the consequences be if you acted as if you could?

They are so fascist that even their Danish and Norwegian counterparts dislike them :o

The GOP would also be considered fascist by many Europeans considering their campaigns. Forming a government and implementing laws is a different pair of shoes though. How big are the chances for the SD to get a absolute majority anyway?

Probably very little would change in reality. Look at Switzerland for an example.

EU: Free trade with Europe would probably be negotiated quite readily. However the EU will write its own rules so to trade freely with the EU, Sweden would likely adopt very similar rules on standards etc to whatever the EU writes for itself. Rules on purely internal matters like labour laws etc could be written unilaterally.
Geneva Convention: Unless Sweden were to find it in a war any time soon I don't see this being a big deal one way or another. Though I can't see it happening.
Sanctions, fines etc: Unlikely.
Beneficial agreements: Depends upon how Swexit occurs. If Sweden's recently reneged on its deals in a disorderly manner, it will have very little good faith to negotiate new ones. OTOH if it just leaves the EU on an individual and orderly basis it could be much easier to reach a deal since you'd need a deal that just makes Sweden and the other party happy (and forget the rest of Europe). There are arguments then as to whether the deal that is reached easier from outside Europe is better or worse than a Europe-wide deal that.

Again with the example of Switzerland, as a non-EU member Switzerland has negotiated a free trade deal not just with the EU but with China too. As an EU member, Sweden is not free to make a free trade deal with China unilaterally.

I'm not sure Switzerland is an appropriate example. Switzerland has never been a part of the EU whereas Sweden's exit may be something the EU may wish to punish. Moreover, in order to gain full access to the single market Sweden would probably have to acquiesce to demands similar to those on the Swiss wrt free movement etc (see past discussion on the Swiss referendum) which is something SD and its voters should logically be opposed to given how upset they are about beggars from Romania and builders from Poland. Re. the Geneva convention, while Sweden is not likely to be involved in a war, Swedish troops are active abroad eg. with the UN.

Switzerland is the best example as it is the main example of what those seeking Swexit are seeking to model. The only example of a nation sort-of leaving the EU (then EEC) is Greenland and I don't think Greenland was punished. Unlike when Greenland left the EU today the EU's constitutional framework (via the Lisbon Treaty) provides an exit procedure from the EU.

As for whether the EU might want to punish Sweden ... that is why I spoke of an orderly or disorderly exit. In the event of an orderly exit negotiated under the Lisbon framework then I would not expect punishment.