This is one of the dumbest things you've said this month.
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If Americans like Jobs and a healthy economy, they vote for Biden and for a Democratic senate.
https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/me...p-vs-biden.pdf
Quote:
Democratic Sweep Scenario
The economic outlook is strongest under the scenario in which Biden and theDemocrats sweep Congress and fully adopttheir economic agenda. In this scenario, theeconomy is expected to create 18.6 millionjobs during Biden’s term as president, and theeconomy returns to full employment, withunemployment of just over 4%, by the second half of 2022 (see Table 1). During Biden’spresidency, the average American household’s real after-tax income increases by approximately $4,800, and the homeownershiprate and house prices increase modestly.
So you can love America and make it great again, or you can vote Trump.Quote:
Republican Sweep Scenario
The economic outlook is weakest under thescenario in which Trump and the Republicanssweep Congress and fully adopt their economic agenda. In this scenario, the economyis expected to create 11.2 million jobs duringTrump’s second term as president, and it isnot until the first half of 2024 that the economy returns to full employment
Hey Lewk, I don't think very highly of the US either and I'm embarrassed to be an American these days. Especially because guys like you think anyone who pushes for liberal democratic and progressive policies -- that push policy toward the middle -- means we're not patriotic, or we're un-American. The political bullshit and identity politics is astounding. It's like you (and your cohorts) belong to a cult of personality. You can't even bring yourself to objectively criticize the crazy policies of the hypocritical Republicans, you just hide your head in denial, and call it hope, or liberty, or Freeeedom.
SSSocialism is bad, but keep your hands off Social Security and Medicare. :rolleyes:
Who you are talking to? I've regularly bashed Trump for his tariffs. Hell I thought the agreement for unemployment hashed out by Trump and Democrats (first stimulus) was utter dog shit. The world needs less government not more and sadly Republicans may talk big about limiting the size of government, they end up never getting around to doing it.
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Very good.
Fuck the Lincoln Project.
I'm curious as to everyone's thoughts. If Trump wins the election by a similar margin as last time or greater what are your top reasons for why he won?
Won't happen. Only way he "wins" is if GOP state governments send a Republican slate of electors even in states won by Biden.
Nate Silver doesn't want to get burned again. No one's coming back from being down 10+% 2 weeks before an election, especially with record early voting numbers. The country is too polarized. There aren't enough persuadable voters.
Silver's prediction is that there is a 12% chance of the polls being wrong enough for Trump to win, not that there's a 12% change he might pull it back in the last two weeks.
The 12% covers both.
He factors in both the chance that the polls were wrong and the chance of the polls moving between now and election day. As every day passes without the polls moving the Trump odds are reduced as he is running out of road.
Though election day itself matters less this year than any other. Even if news breaks today that moves the dial, tens of millions have already voted.
Eg over 4 million Texans have already voted versus just under 9 million in 2016.
Has anyone here voted yet?
That would be an unprecedented polling error. There is far less uncertainty now than in 2016. We know which groups vote for Trump. Third parties aren't doing nearly as well. The voters are far more polarized (meaning few people willing to change their minds). And a ton of people already voted, which means their votes can't be changed and also that Democrats are voting at far higher rates than Republicans (compared to other recent elections). Even if everything goes Trump's way at this point, he'll lose. His only path to victory is election outcomes being ignored.
I, along with most people I know here, voted despite some pretty crazy lines for some of them. I know that's anecdotal evidence, but it's also consistent with vote tallies by party in this state. Trump might still win here, but the fact it's close doesn't say much for his chances in other nearby states.
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This would be where you get into the specifics of the electoral college math, where Republicans have an advantage. Certainly, the 538 model gives Trump a negligible chance of a popular vote win but that is unfortunately not how US elections are decided.
FYI ~10% is what Trump had this time in 2016. I think this would have been just before the Comey letter.
It certainly doesn't look good for Trump, but it ain't over till it's over. This is before we take into consideration the possibility of fraud or other shenanigans. Frankly, it's not over till I see Biden standing there with his palm raised in front of that podium.
There is an equal probability of a 6% swing in the other direction. And even that 6% swing for Trump would be insufficient at this point given how many people voted. He'd need close to a 9% swing.
And once again, voters are far more polarized. Trump hasn't had an approval of 47% since Jan. 2017.
From the data I saw early voters tend massively Democrat whereas the Republicans tend to turn out more on the day itself, and in any case early voters do not necessarily represent people who were open to changing their mind.
Well, that could either represent higher Dem turn out and depressed GOP turnout, or increased turnout across the board. For me there are still too many unknowns at play to say Biden definitely has it in the bag.
Speaking of approval ratings, it's wild that Trump's approval rating is better than Bush's was when he left office. George Bush was by no metric a good president or person, by the idea that there are 10-20% of people out there who think he was worse at presidenting than Donald Trump is a bit staggering.
After 1 day of early voting in my county
https://i.imgur.com/2HyjkBA.png
I've read a take about how Trump's personality may influence his chances.
What is most important for Trump? Trump and being the best <insert anything here>
Trump has ignored all advice given to him with regard to the last weeks of the election, and is continuing on a path that even his close personal staff deem destructive. Trump already has decided: if he loses the election, it's because it's rigged. Because he is the best president ever. So he can't be blamed for the loss. So that is one option. The other option is to take the advice his staff has given him, which means basically not being a toddler about everything. But he can't change course, because that would mean he would second guess himself, and because he's the best president ever, that would be foolish.
The only thing that is important to Trump is the image he has created about himself in his little mind. It's the reason he craves the rally attention, because those people act according to what he would expect, being the best president ever. Journalists asking him difficult questions, do not compute, after all, how can you be critical of the best president ever? So he walks out of those. And if he can't walk out, he'll bash whoever is interviewing him.
In Texas more turnout now already is past the 50% point of 2016. The numbers who have already voted is unprecedented. Some states could hit all of their 2016 voters voting before election day at this rate.
Nationally at last count 24.5% have already voted.
https://electproject.github.io/Early...20G/index.html
Right, so I think I know where the guy who wrote the comment I read got this from.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/20/p...set/index.html
I did enjoy this part though.
Quote:
Consider this story. During the middle of an intense session with his bankers in 1990 -- where his debt holders were hammering out a five-year plan to repay his personal debts -- Trump stopped the proceedings and asked an aide to bring in a box of books."I would like to thank all the banks here for your help," he said, according to Alan Pomerantz, an attorney who represented the interests of 72 banks. Trump then proceeds to sign the books for the bankers. The book: The Art of the Deal. Which, as Pomerantz put it, "is about how fabulous he is."
So even the bankers -- who were taking over his properties -- were treated to free signed books about Trump's business acumen. Go figure.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/1...cabinet-429972
are you fucking kidding me with this shit
Do you honestly have a problem with, say, Charlie Baker serving in a technocratic position in the cabinet?