Originally Posted by
Steely Glint
Workington had a ton of Ukippers back when UKIP were a thing, and when UKIP died in 2017 on the face of it they went 50% 50% to Tories and Labour, giving the Tories 10% above their 2010 total of 30% (the LD vote also collapsed that year, and presumably they all went to Labour, so probably a lot more Ukippers went Tory than Labour). This was before Labour decided they were in favour of a second referendum.
So, the idea that people won't vote Tory here or change their allegiance from Labour is wrong. We have a ~60% leave area voting ~60% leave parties, no reason to think those Brexit party guys are going to all go directly back to Labour. I mean, maybe some of them will but it's not going to overturn that 9% lead the Tory candidate has.