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Type: Posts; User: wiggin

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  1. Replies
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    The thing that gets me is how much of an own goal...

    The thing that gets me is how much of an own goal this was for Labour. The Tories haven't done themselves any favors - they've looked incompetent and untrustworthy with the whole Brexit debacle and...
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    Interesting analysis, but one question: you...

    Interesting analysis, but one question: you actually think Warren has a position (stolen or not) as a moderate candidate?
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    Obviously that's true, but that's not the...

    Obviously that's true, but that's not the counterfactual - we're imagining a energy mix of mostly solar + storage against some other future energy mix and trying to figure out if it's the best...
  4. Thread: teevee sucks

    by wiggin
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    The problem with Good Omens is the same as the...

    The problem with Good Omens is the same as the issue with most of Pratchett's work - it's bloody difficult to adapt for television. So much of what makes Good Omens one of the funniest books I've...
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    It's really just a question of what the use case...

    It's really just a question of what the use case is. For baseload power, fusion might - might - someday be a commercially viable option to replace fission or large scale fossil fuels. I doubt it'll...
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    I think this question really matters quite a bit...

    I think this question really matters quite a bit on the timescale we're talking about. If we look at RB's decade-ish scale, I think the energy mix should be something achievable: a greater...
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    But why would you want an anti-fertility policy?...

    But why would you want an anti-fertility policy?

    https://i.imgur.com/nLaRVh0.jpg
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    There are other ways to tap housing equity that...

    There are other ways to tap housing equity that will give you some liquidity without having to sell. But it all depends on the details.

    Personally I view a home, purchased or rented, as merely a...
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    Not exactly 'happy', but I laughed: An...

    Not exactly 'happy', but I laughed:

    An (Israeli) friend of mine recently joined the security committee of his synagogue - most synagogues have been upgrading their security after the various...
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    The US is not known for its distaste of...

    The US is not known for its distaste of hypocrisy. It has no problem requesting a waiver even if it wouldn't grant one. In the case of the Georgian diplomat you referred to, the case was somewhat...
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    I'm pretty sure that even though all of those...

    I'm pretty sure that even though all of those boxes are checked, the US in general does not make blanket policy exceptions for waiving diplomatic immunity. I believe it has happened in the past but...
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    Caveat: I am not an expert on customary intl law,...

    Caveat: I am not an expert on customary intl law, the Vienna Convention, or US history on invoking or waiving diplomatic immunity. With your background you may be, so feel free to educate me.
    ...
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    The BS reality TV moment was despicable, yes, but...

    The BS reality TV moment was despicable, yes, but there are actually very good reasons why the US (well before Trump) is fanatically zealous about guarding diplomatic immunity. It's just that even...
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    Arguments like Burry's have been around for...

    Arguments like Burry's have been around for years. If they were going to have an effect on the market, it would at best show up as a slowing in the shift to passive investing, which itself is nearly...
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    How do you know?

    How do you know?
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    This entire presidency has been bad news for...

    This entire presidency has been bad news for Israel.
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    I read Burry's comments with interest when...

    I read Burry's comments with interest when Bloomberg interviewed him, and I've heard similar arguments in the past. The question is how large a chunk of the market needs to be owned by indices before...
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    IIRC researching the dangerous techs dramatically...

    IIRC researching the dangerous techs dramatically speeds up the arrival of the crisis, giving you less time to build up forces.
  19. Attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure: a risky game

    I'm sure you've all seen news reports of two drone attacks by Houthis on large Saudi oil facilities deep inside Saudi Arabia. It appears that there is at least a temporary shutdown of over 5m barrels...
  20. Agreed that the numbers and the counterfactuals...

    Agreed that the numbers and the counterfactuals matter, and that the calculation is going to differ for each individual. I guess what I'm trying to get at is less a definitive answer and more of a...
  21. Thread: Zionuts

    by wiggin
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    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/...

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/newsbeat-49686018

    Making the announcement while wearing what bears a strong resemblance to an Iron Cross? Classy.
  22. Well, let's take the case I presented. An...

    Well, let's take the case I presented. An average woman in the US has about a 12% chance of developing breast cancer sometime in her lifetime. With some BRCA 1/2 mutations, that jumps up to about...
  23. What's high? 5%? 20? 80?

    What's high? 5%? 20? 80?
  24. Managing cancer risks: population wide screening and individual strategies

    I read with interest the recent recommendations from the US Preventive Services Task Force on BRCA 1/2 testing. The tl;dr is that they were expanding the population of women who are recommended to...
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    IIRC static defenses were pretty useless against...

    IIRC static defenses were pretty useless against anything other than pirates unless you had a really solid chokepoint backed up by a shitload of ships. The defense/offense buffs you could get from...
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