Egypt is having a revolution today.

[Supermarioman]

The Egyptian Military has been deployed in an attempt to crush the protests.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41307908...deastn_africa/

CAIRO — Shots were heard in central Cairo on Friday after military units moved in to quell an "open revolt" against President Hosni Mubarak's 30-year rule by tens of thousands of protesters.
Demonstrators were trying to storm the foreign ministry and the state TV building in Cairo, The Associated Press reported. Violent clashes were also reported near the Egyptian parliament.
Television images showed several buildings in Cairo, including the headquarters of the ruling party, ablaze. Flames also threatened the Egyptian National Museum.
Friday saw demonstrations across the country, which continued despite a 13-hour military curfew which began at 6 p.m. local time (11 a.m. ET). It initially covered the cities of Cairo, Suez and Alexandria, but was later extended to cover all cities.

[wiggin]

I'm actually surprised this hasn't been brought up until now. That being said, I'm skeptical this is going to be a world-changing event. The Egyptian government is much stronger than Tunisia's, and their military is unlikely to turn against Mubarak. I think these protests will be quelled and eventually die down, albeit at significant cost to the image of the Mubarak regime (and possibly some promises of at least cosmetic reforms).

The Iranian government is far weaker IMO, but they weathered their protests just fine. Of course, I could be entirely wrong, but so far the government hasn't been playing hardball.

[Loki]

The Egyptian military doesn't support Mubarak's son, and it's not impossible that it would refuse to support Mubarak now to prevent his son from coming to power. The military there also doesn't have a recent history of firing at civilians. And I'm not convinced that the Egyptian police force is as willing to kill protesters as the paramilitary groups in Iran were.

Having said that, I think it's impossible to predict what will happen for several more days. Right now, I'd put the chances of Mubarak being forced to leave office at somewhere between 10-20%, which is much higher than the 1% I would give the protesters a few days ago. As long as the protesters stay on the streets and the military doesn't intervene, the odds will keep on shifting in the protesters' direction.

[agamemnus]

Totally overblown.

Abeer Ahmed, a 31-year-old woman who showed up for ElBaradei with her toddler, said she has a law degree but makes a living cleaning homes.

"Nothing good is left in the country," she said. "Oppression is growing."

Join the club, lady. You're not the only one, and your country isn't the only one. If the US can't keep its economy together, what makes you think an inept government under sway from (possibly) Islamist principles will do any better????

Unfortunately, apparently countries like yours, Mrs. Ahmed, have a tendency to have violent turmoil when things don't go well economically.

[Loki]

Yeah, let's equate a recession in the US with decades of economic stagnation, corruption, and repression in Egypt.

[agamemnus]

All economies are interconnected, especially modern economies like Egypt's. "Stagnation, corruption, and repression" can be tolerated when the world economy is stable. When food prices go up and overall income goes down because of a bad world economy, it really doesn't help. Egypt imports most of its grain from America, btw.

BTW, I think both the demonstrators have overblown their country's problems and the media has overblown the magnitude of it.

[Loki]

I think you have absolutely no knowledge about the history of Egypt or the situation there right now and are talking out of your behind.

[Steely Glint]

I think you have absolutely no knowledge about the history of Egypt or the situation there right now and are talking out of your behind.

fixed

[Loki]

111th least corrupt country in the world: http://www.transparency.org/policy_r...cpi_2009_table

103rd highest GDP in the world (despite massive subsidies from Saudi Arabia, various Gulf states, and the US): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...%29_per_capita

One of the least free countries in the world (in terms of civil liberties and political rights): http://www.freedomhouse.org/uploads/...and_Graphs.pdf

[Hazir]

I really wouldn't know what to say about either Tunesia or Egypt; it is near impossible to tell where this is going, if anywhere at all.

I am in shock though over having Egypt seen described as a modern economy.

[Ominous Gamer]

I work with a guy who was born and raised in Djibouti.
I asked for his 30 second opinion about the protests, and all I got was "I love it!"

[Hazir]

Ok, I am tending towards a military coup next/first now.

[Hazir]

Looks like some idiot set fire to the National Museum in Cairo.

Also Mubarak is going to appear on state TV soon.

[Ominous Gamer]

Last I heard that was a fire that spread from the building next to it, building owned by the ruling party or something like that.

[Hazir]

He says that peaceful demonstrations deteriorated into rioting. He's praising how free the Egyptian people are and how he is responsable for that. He says the sovereignty belongs to the people and he will defend that. He says there is a line between freedom and chaos. He will do what is necessary to keep the stability and safety of Egypt. Seems like he's promising more democracy, more action on the economy and a harder crackdown on corruption.

These 'promises' are typical for the dictator on the way to his last flight out.

[Hazir]

He puts the blame on the administration and has fired the PM and ministers.

[Hazir]

Seems like they are telling on Arabic AJ now that after the speech there are actual clashes between civilians and military.

[Steely Glint]

If Mubarak really does go, I do wonder about whether what exactly will come after him. True democracy, or just another autocratic state with a few token trappings Democratic trappings? I wonder this also about Tunisia. Getting rid of a dictator and installing democracy is a two stage process:

1) Get rid of dictator
2) Install democracy

Doing 1) is good, but if you don't also do 2) you'll just end up with another version of the guy you kicked out. As the exciting part in Tunisia is over our myopic media, with much more interesting things happening in Egypt, is now ignoring events Tunisia entirely when what happens next is in fact what will determine whether this represents a genuine change in the region or just another footnote in the long history of dictatorship.

[Hazir]

Don't forget the one person, one vote, one time option. That's actually worse than this merely being a blip in the continued string of dictators.

[Hazir]

Seems like the Muslim Brotherhood has called on Mubarak to leave for the good of the country.

[Loki]

Seems like they are telling on Arabic AJ now that after the speech there are actual clashes between civilians and military.

They've been saying that all day. I'm not sure how much of what AJ reports is fact and how much is wishful thinking (or attempts to inflame the situation). I've read mixed reports. It doesn't help that the Egyptian Army Chief of Staff was in the US and just took a flight back to Egypt (i.e. he's not in Egypt yet).

Edit: smart move by the US to say it's reviewing military aid to Egypt. That might just push the military in the right direction.

[Loki]

If Mubarak really does go, I do wonder about whether what exactly will come after him. True democracy, or just another autocratic state with a few token trappings Democratic trappings? I wonder this also about Tunisia. Getting rid of a dictator and installing democracy is a two stage process:

1) Get rid of dictator
2) Install democracy

Doing 1) is good, but if you don't also do 2) you'll just end up with another version of the guy you kicked out. As the exciting part in Tunisia is over our myopic media, with much more interesting things happening in Egypt, is now ignoring events Tunisia entirely when what happens next is in fact what will determine whether this represents a genuine change in the region or just another footnote in the long history of dictatorship.

There's no way to know to be honest. Tunisia has somewhat better conditions for democracy (less volatile region, a more educated populace, not a playground of great powers), but neither country has a history of democracy. On an aside, no democratic country with a GDP per capita of I believe $6,000 has ever stopped being a democracy. In terms of PPP, both Egypt and Tunsia have over $6,000, though not in nominal terms. Something to think about it.

[Hazir]

I wonder if Mubarak will restore access to telecom as demanded now by Obama.

[Loki]

I wonder if Mubarak will restore access to telecom as demanded now by Obama.

Depends on whether he thinks his regime is really under threat. If he does, he's not going to listen to anyone.

[Hazir]

Well, AJE tells us that he's started arresting prominent members of the Moslim Brotherhood. Much good that will do him; the MB doesn't really play a role in the protests at all. Which is sort of surprising.

[Loki]

I think the Brotherhood doesn't want to scare off the US or the military (parts of it are also comfortable with the status quo). And Mubarak probably believes that his regime won't get toppled without active Brotherhood intervention.

[Hazir]

Well that is typical for the entire Middle East; these damn dictators make it impossible to form a secular opposition to them so the only places where you will see some sort of counter forces is in the shadow of mosques. I seriously wonder if we'd have to worry so much about religious extremists today if we hadn't been propping up Arab dictators for the better part of a century.

[Loki]

Those dictators would survive with Soviet aid during the Cold War, and with Saudi/UAE's/Kuwait's aid in its aftermath. American aid to those countries is overstated. It's not like them having more tanks or more airplanes makes it easier to repress the public.

[agamemnus]

I am in shock though over having Egypt seen described as a modern economy.

What would you describe Egypt's economy? What's not modern about it?

111th least corrupt country in the world: http://www.transparency.org/policy_r...cpi_2009_table

103rd highest GDP in the world (despite massive subsidies from Saudi Arabia, various Gulf states, and the US): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...%29_per_capita

One of the least free countries in the world (in terms of civil liberties and political rights): http://www.freedomhouse.org/uploads/...and_Graphs.pdf

How does any of this contradict with what I said?

[Loki]

How about the fact that a third of the labor force works in agriculture, at least a quarter of the population is illiterate, GDP per capita (PPP) is $6k, the main exports are oil, cotton, and textiles, the probability that an average person can start their own business is minuscule, corruption is overwhelming, female genital mutilation is still rampant, and a tiny proportion of the population is employed in "modern jobs"?