Why do you think the murder rate is rising in Baltimore?

[Lewkowski]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...cord.html?_r=0

"After the April death of Freddie Gray, a black man who died from injuries sustained while detained by the Baltimore police, the city had its worst riots in more than four decades. Now, the city is waiting warily as legal proceedings against the six officers charged in Mr. Gray’s death move through the courts. But Baltimore is also in the throes of another crisis: A sharp increase in homicides that, by the end of the year, left the city with the highest per-capita murder rate in its history.

Residents, analysts and policymakers here are divided over the precise cause of the surge in homicides. Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake fired the city’s police commissioner, Anthony W. Batts, over the summer, calling for change during a surge in crime.
Below are some of the key figures from a violent year. (All data comes from Open Data or the Baltimore Police Department unless otherwise noted.)"

Thoughts?

[Loki]

The way the Laquan McDonald case was handled by the legal system and the politicians of Chicago undermined the legitimacy of the legal system in the eyes of the city's minorities. The kind of social norms that make someone think twice about committing murder went away. As did the already low level of willingness to cooperate with the police to investigate murders (which decreases the cost of committing murder).

I also wouldn't be surprised if the police aren't policing just as much as they used to in the past. It's certainly true in New York.

[Lewkowski]

The way the Laquan McDonald case was handled by the legal system and the politicians of Chicago undermined the legitimacy of the legal system in the eyes of the city's minorities. The kind of social norms that make someone think twice about committing murder went away. As did the already low level of willingness to cooperate with the police to investigate murders (which decreases the cost of committing murder).

I also wouldn't be surprised if the police aren't policing just as much as they used to in the past. It's certainly true in New York.

I've never much bought the whole idea that people don't kill people because of the "legitimacy of the legal system." That isn't a thought that goes through the head of a would be murderer.

I'm more willing to entertain the idea that the less cooperation with police is playing a factor as well as police officers doing less policing (for a number of reasons).

The sad thing is that all of the negative attention on police (and it is far more than just one case, some of it justified, some if it not) could be one of the reasons that the murder rate is going up. And do you know who that most effects? The Black Lives Matter movement and their antics is likely causing the death of MORE black youth and men.

[RandBlade]

I've never much bought the whole idea that people don't kill people because of the "legitimacy of the legal system." That isn't a thought that goes through the head of a would be murderer.

Of course it is. If you believe in a legitimate legal system and someone wrongs you then you want it solved via the legal system.

If you don't then you take actions into your own hands. Which causes a cycle of violence and gang shootings etc which even if you don't care about gang-on-gang shootings can and will have innocents caught in the crossfire.

[Lewkowski]

Of course it is. If you believe in a legitimate legal system and someone wrongs you then you want it solved via the legal system.

If you don't then you take actions into your own hands. Which causes a cycle of violence and gang shootings etc which even if you don't care about gang-on-gang shootings can and will have innocents caught in the crossfire.

I don't think that is what Loki was referring to in regards to respecting the legal system. The way I interpret what he was saying is in regards to what I've seen ivory tower criminal justice professors drone on about the importance of the systems legitimacy in the crime rate. IE - If people think laws are unfair they will be more likely to break them. And to that I say nonsense. If you are going to rob someone you don't take into account the fairness of the system or its legitimacy, you just rob someone. That type person is a moral cesspool - they do the crime because they gain something that's it.

[RandBlade]

I don't think that is what Loki was referring to in regards to respecting the legal system. The way I interpret what he was saying is in regards to what I've seen ivory tower criminal justice professors drone on about the importance of the systems legitimacy in the crime rate. IE - If people think laws are unfair they will be more likely to break them. And to that I say nonsense. If you are going to rob someone you don't take into account the fairness of the system or its legitimacy, you just rob someone. That type person is a moral cesspool - they do the crime because they gain something that's it.

More fool you then. There isn't a group of people who will never steal and another group of people who will always steal ... with nobody in the middle who might sometimes steal. Are you suggesting everyone who has ever engaged in online piracy falls under your "moral cesspool" category?

Instead there is a small group of people who will never steal under any circumstances, another small group who will always steal ... but the large majority in the middle will if they think a combination of that they can get away with it and that it is justified.

If the legal system is in disrespect then it is more easy to justify it to yourself.

[LittleFuzzy]

I've never much bought the whole idea that people don't kill people because of the "legitimacy of the legal system." That isn't a thought that goes through the head of a would be murderer.

So you think people's first response to any grievance is always violence? What sort of psychopath are you?

[Steely Glint]

Thoughts?

That it's pretty refreshing to see you start a thread which isn't designed to make some kind of daft LIBERALS ARE MAKING EVERYTHING BAD agenda.

The sad thing is that all of the negative attention on police (and it is far more than just one case, some of it justified, some if it not) could be one of the reasons that the murder rate is going up. And do you know who that most effects? The Black Lives Matter movement and their antics is likely causing the death of MORE black youth and men.

Oh, nope. There it is. Yup. Yeah, it's right here.

Never mind. Move along everyone. Nothing to see here.

[Lewkowski]

So you think people's first response to any grievance is always violence? What sort of psychopath are you?

No. I'm not sure how you read that into my statement.

People will murder people for a whole list of reasons (rage, revenge, profit etc) and none of those cases do the murderers stop and ponder about the 'legitimacy of the legal system' before taking action.

[Ominous Gamer]

People will murder people for a whole list of reasons (rage, revenge, profit etc) and none of those cases do the murderers stop and ponder about the 'legitimacy of the legal system' before taking action.

So you finally admit that your concept of "justice" has little to nothing to do with deterring wrong doing.

[LittleFuzzy]

No. I'm not sure how you read that into my statement.

People will murder people for a whole list of reasons (rage, revenge, profit etc) and none of those cases do the murderers stop and ponder about the 'legitimacy of the legal system' before taking action.

But you do think they stop and ponder the rate at which the police manage to close cases. You are dismissing here the exact same kind of personal analysis which you say is the only kind criminals use regarding getting caught and which you say is why harsh punishment deters crime. The risk of punishment cannot be a deterrent to crime if the availability of non-criminal alternatives is not also a deterrent, they both require the exact same pauses to think things through.

[GGT]

I've never much bought the whole idea that people don't kill people because of the "legitimacy of the legal system." That isn't a thought that goes through the head of a would be murderer.

I'm more willing to entertain the idea that the less cooperation with police is playing a factor as well as police officers doing less policing (for a number of reasons).

It's been pointed out to you (several times) that a 'police presence' doesn't automatically mean good things, especially in areas where police have used racial profiling, and cops are more likely to shoot or choke-hold black males to death, even if they're crime victims. But you refuse to listen, or consider any other perspective that's different from your own.

The sad thing is that all of the negative attention on police (and it is far more than just one case, some of it justified, some if it not) could be one of the reasons that the murder rate is going up. And do you know who that most effects? The Black Lives Matter movement and their antics is likely causing the death of MORE black youth and men.

Wow, you sound like that lib'rul Bill Clinton trying to justify the unintended consequences of his Crime Bill!

Lewk, either you truly want to discuss violent crime, and understand the correlations and causations, in order to make better public policies...or you're just trolling.

[GGT]

I've never much bought the whole idea that people don't kill people because of the "legitimacy of the legal system." That isn't a thought that goes through the head of a would be murderer.

I'm more willing to entertain the idea that the less cooperation with police is playing a factor as well as police officers doing less policing (for a number of reasons).

[Aimless]

The perceived legitimacy of the system and the perceived goodness of cops influences the kind of social pressure and guidance would-be criminals receive from non-criminals in their communities eg. families, friends etc. In the long run I do believe that legitimacy and decency are important for keeping crime down by increasing the appeal of a law-abiding life--and decreasing the appeal of gangs and gang-leaders--for at-risk youths, thus preventing them from getting on the slippery slope that leads from reckless punk to hardened criminal.

However, I'm not convinced that's the most important and immediate reason for the spike in homicides.

Is this a lasting and real trend that can't be explained by normal variation, demographic and socioeconomic changes etc?

Hot summer months are generally associated with higher rates of crimes such as homicides, robberies and burglaries etc iirc.

It's possible that the riots sparked by the police's actions made for a more aggressive climate that both increased the occurrence of violence and made violent criminals more bold.

It's possible that some of the homicides were in retaliation for things done during the riots.

I note also the possibility of an increase in the use of guns and in the number of shootings.



Of course, I don't know why the murder-rate in Baltimore seems to have spiked last year but a useful guiding principle in these discussions is that any explanation that appeals to you probably isn't the correct one.

[RandBlade]

The moment they download a bit torrent client they are irredeemably a moral cesspool.

[RandBlade]

Because you have repeatedly both in the past and in this thread included theft and robbery as a crime that only irredeemable criminals commit. Yet when the absurdness of your position is pointed out you blush and turn away.

[Loki]

Lewk, why do you think we're the murder capital of the first world? We have by far the most severe punishments for murder.

[Lewkowski]

Lewk, why do you think we're the murder capital of the first world? We have by far the most severe punishments for murder.

There are a number of reasons including the prevalence of guns, gang culture, being right next door to the murder capital of the third world, soft on many other types of crimes (you can get probation for robbery for example), the war on drugs which makes it profitable to sell drugs, liberal cult of victim-hood that also ties in with ridiculous expectations for how the world should work (everyone gets a trophy, everyone deserves x).

[RandBlade]

There are a number of reasons including the prevalence of guns, gang culture, being right next door to the murder capital of the third world, soft on many other types of crimes (you can get probation for robbery for example), the war on drugs which makes it profitable to sell drugs, liberal cult of victim-hood that also ties in with ridiculous expectations for how the world should work (everyone gets a trophy, everyone deserves x).

You think the USA is more liberal than every nation in Europe?

[Lewkowski]

You think the USA is more liberal than every nation in Europe?

Being liberal and being part of the liberal cult of victim-hood are two separate things. I actually don't know enough about Europe to say if they have the same leftist position that if you are a minority everyone is out to get you. I'm not sure if your major politicians pander so heavily to groups of people like the Democrats do. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwmI8JcVJ8E

If you are told all of your life that the only reason you succeed is due to the 'system' you will never realize that most often YOU are responsible for your successes and failures. Without that critical element in realizing that yes, you need to get to work on time, yes you should be learning things at school, yes you need to be respectful to others and yes you should actually work for a living you get an entire under class of people certain that they could be rich and successful if only the white man wasn't keeping them down. Add to that a culture that glorifies gang life, mix in guns (which should be legal but I'm not silly enough not to see the correlation) and you have a recipe for a high murder rate.

[Lewkowski]

Lewk, why do you think we're the murder capital of the first world? We have by far the most severe punishments for murder.

There are a number of reasons including the prevalence of guns, gang culture, being right next door to the murder capital of the third world, soft on many other types of crimes (you can get probation for robbery for example), the war on drugs which makes it profitable to sell drugs, liberal cult of victim-hood that also ties in with ridiculous expectations for how the world should work (everyone gets a trophy, everyone deserves x).

[Loki]

There are a number of reasons including the prevalence of guns

Even if you exclude gun homicides, we still have a higher murder rate.

gang culture

Why do American gangs kill each other at a higher rate than non-American gangs? Shouldn't they be deterred by the tougher punishments here?

being right next door to the murder capital of the third world

We had the same murder rate before Mexico became the murder capital of the world.

soft on many other types of crimes (you can get probation for robbery for example)

Softer than the Europeans? Really?

the war on drugs which makes it profitable to sell drugs

Because drugs only exist in the US?

liberal cult of victim-hood that also ties in with ridiculous expectations for how the world should work (everyone gets a trophy, everyone deserves x).

You think this makes sense as a cause of crime but not the perceived illegitimacy of the legal system? And you think the Europeans are more individualistic than Americans?

[GGT]

In other words, Lewk started this thread with a pre-conceived idea about why Baltimore's murder rate is rising, but can't back it up with facts when challenged.

[Lewkowski]

In other words, Lewk started this thread with a pre-conceived idea about why Baltimore's murder rate is rising, but can't back it up with facts when challenged.

Did you bother reading the thread? Most of the thread has been a tangent.

[GGT]

Did you bother reading the thread? Most of the thread has been a tangent.

You began by saying police weren't getting their due respect.....

[Steely Glint]

ITT I learned that the high murder rate in Baltimore is because of Mexico.

Also the high crime rate in London is due to it's proximity to the chaotic situation in Libya.

[Lewkowski]

Are you actually forming a coherent argument or are you just countering every thing I say? Because multiple items overlap. You argue that if you exclude gun homicide rates we still have a higher rate, is your purpose here to say that gun ownership rates have no impact on murder rate? Or are you just making a blind point.

Gang culture has lots of elements to it. Do you think gang membership is more or less prevalent than in Europe?

So is your argument that sharing a porous border with a violent third world country has no impact on the murder rate?

I couldn't tell you all the ins and outs of Euro punishments. But I can tell you in America you can go to prison longer for having drugs than if you robbed a gas station.

Drugs exist everywhere but in America we've made it more profitable with all the money and effort we've made to criminalize it. This has led to international cartels to invest heavily in drug distribution. Do you think that has no impact on the murder rate?

Absolutely, the perceived 'illegitimacy of the legal system' is very different than the cult of victim hood. While you could argue some overlap in the thought process the though process of the legal system isn't for justice therefore I don't need to concern myself with obeying laws is a liberal figment of the imagination. People don't think like that. While people do think 'I deserve the best because everyone from grade school, to the media, to little league says I am special, unique and awesome, if I don't get instant success and happiness I need to TAKE it! Don't they know who I am? I'm special!' The whole concept that you are not just one of the masses, that you 'matter' is what leads to resentment, anger and violence. And again I'm not an expert on Europe so I couldn't tell you.

All that being said - why do you think murder happens more often in America than elsewhere? I'm going to laugh if some of your same reasons are ones you are trying to poke holes with when I use them. I think you like to be contrary than actually representing what you actually think.

[Loki]

Are you actually forming a coherent argument or are you just countering every thing I say? Because multiple items overlap. You argue that if you exclude gun homicide rates we still have a higher rate, is your purpose here to say that gun ownership rates have no impact on murder rate? Or are you just making a blind point.

Gang culture has lots of elements to it. Do you think gang membership is more or less prevalent than in Europe?

So is your argument that sharing a porous border with a violent third world country has no impact on the murder rate?

I couldn't tell you all the ins and outs of Euro punishments. But I can tell you in America you can go to prison longer for having drugs than if you robbed a gas station.

Drugs exist everywhere but in America we've made it more profitable with all the money and effort we've made to criminalize it. This has led to international cartels to invest heavily in drug distribution. Do you think that has no impact on the murder rate?

Absolutely, the perceived 'illegitimacy of the legal system' is very different than the cult of victim hood. While you could argue some overlap in the thought process the though process of the legal system isn't for justice therefore I don't need to concern myself with obeying laws is a liberal figment of the imagination. People don't think like that. While people do think 'I deserve the best because everyone from grade school, to the media, to little league says I am special, unique and awesome, if I don't get instant success and happiness I need to TAKE it! Don't they know who I am? I'm special!' The whole concept that you are not just one of the masses, that you 'matter' is what leads to resentment, anger and violence. And again I'm not an expert on Europe so I couldn't tell you.

All that being said - why do you think murder happens more often in America than elsewhere? I'm going to laugh if some of your same reasons are ones you are trying to poke holes with when I use them. I think you like to be contrary than actually representing what you actually think.

If each of your points is wrong in isolation, they're not magically going to combine for a correct whole. And I have less problems with some of those individual arguments than with the fact that they're completely inconsistent with the deterrence logic that you always use as the best predictor of crime.

There isn't a single explanation for the vastly different murder rates. Access to cheap illegal guns certainly helps, but that's only part of the picture. Individual and group-level inequality contribute to the problem. But ultimately, a majority of the crime is taking place in segregated communities where respect for the law runs from low to non-existence, cooperation with cops is even lower, and social norms about killing people ebb and flow with economic incentives, policing, and interaction with the representatives of society (namely the police, judicial system, and political elites). And if you don't think that publicized shootings of unarmed blacks, even those who might have been up to no good, isn't going to affect this problem from multiple angles at once, well, good luck explaining the increase in violent crime in those same cities.

Man I'd really like to see some numbers on how many black criminal gang members heard that growing up in the hood because it sounds like bullshit

Yeah, Lewk seems to be explaining the massive hipster crime wave.

[Steely Glint]

About as productive as any attempt to have a discussion with you.

[Aimless]

People don't think like that. While people do think 'I deserve the best because everyone from grade school, to the media, to little league says I am special, unique and awesome, if I don't get instant success and happiness I need to TAKE it! Don't they know who I am? I'm special!' The whole concept that you are not just one of the masses, that you 'matter' is what leads to resentment, anger and violence. And again I'm not an expert on Europe so I couldn't tell you.

Man I'd really like to see some numbers on how many black criminal gang members heard that growing up in the hood because it sounds like bullshit