Turkey: akp wins in elections, PM Erdogan loses

[Hazir]

At face value it seems like AKP won today's elections in Turkey by securing more than 50% of the vote. However, the goal was to push the nationalist MHP out of parliament. If this would have worked, the Akp would have secured the supermajority it needs to unilaterally rewrite the constitution. But on the basis of what I have heard so far there will be 4 parties in the Turkish parliament and despite the huge vote, AKP will need to get the support of the opposition for the new Constitution.

For Erdogan this means the end of his dreams to become the president of Turkey with powers similar to those of the French president (highly centralised powers with a relatively powerless parliament).

Seems like a good day for democracy in Turkey to me.

[Loki]

Turkey was about 2 elections away from becoming another Venezuela. If true, this should be a setback to Edrogan's plans, but I'm not sure how deterred he'll be in trying to form his very own "democratic" autocracy.

[Hazir]

Results

AKP : 327 down from 341
CHP : 135 up from 112
MHP : 56 down from 71
IND : 35 up from 26

327 is well short of any of the majorities needed for constitutional change. The independents will be able to establish a faction in parliament. They are virtually all Kurdish and left to the center. One reason for the loss of the AKP is that more people appear to have voted strategically. Parties with no serious chance of passing the 10% hurdle got significantly less votes, thus reducing the number of lost votes.

I doubt anybody close to Erdogan is in a genuine festive mood today.

[Dreadnaught]

One can breath a sigh of relief that they didn't get the absolutely majority, but will it be hard to get any of the other parties to agree with the vast majority of still-unannounced items they want to stuff into a new constitution?

I can only at Erdogan's remark that "Gaza, Palestine and Jerusalem have also won." Is he trying to look like a claptrap Middle Eastern dictator bringing up Palestine every three days?

[Hazir]

Well, as i stood in Taksim square, talking with two Israeli Palestineans, a car drove by, the driver honking his horn while flying an AKP flag and a Palestnean flag. I said 'Damn thought this was still Turkey'. To which I got the reply 'Yeah, it's remarkable how there appears to be an inverse relation between how authoritarian a politician in the Middle East is and his inclinations to demand freedom for us'.

[wiggin]

Just for clarification - what is an 'Israeli Palestinian'?

I'm happy Erdogan was handed a (modest) defeat, though.

[Hazir]

An arabic Israeli. You took the bait by the way

[wiggin]

An arabic Israeli. You took the bait by the way

Honestly, I wasn't trying to be argumentative. I just didn't know whether you meant an Israeli Arab (i.e. an Arab with Israeli citizenship) or a Palestinian. Obviously some of the former have a 'Palestinian' identity and they're free to do so... it's just imprecise. Furthermore, his comments have a different complexion depending on which he was.

[Hazir]

Yeah, interesting when it comes to identity. The one I know best identifies entirely with Israel and comes down hard on people who do not acknowledge its right to exist, but on the other hand he at no moment feels really like full citizen of the state of Israel either. There are too many little things where it all of a sudden matters that he's not Jewish.

[RandBlade]

Pardon me for being thick, but if AKP have 327/553 seats what difference does it make? Erdogan may not be able to change the constitution, but what practical difference will that have? He controls a majority in Parliament, can't they just vote through any laws etc he wants anyway?

I don't see why you need a supermajority rather than a majority ... unless perhaps you were trying to get rid of something like a 2-term-limit etc or change the rules to secure your majority in the future.

Similarly how is it a loss for Erdogan? Its still not just a victory but a landslide victory surely, just not as one-sided a landslide victory as he'd hoped for.

[Loki]

Because any law can be declared unconstitutional. Erdogan wants to prevent that from happening.

[RandBlade]

Yeah, but what sort of laws are being declared unconstitutional?

[wiggin]

Yeah, but what sort of laws are being declared unconstitutional?

As I understand it, it wasn't an issue of a specific law being unconstitutional, but of the new constitution being written so as to advantage AKP in general and Erdogan in specific in future elections. IIRC he was looking at significantly strengthening the presidency?

[Loki]

Yeah, but what sort of laws are being declared unconstitutional?

Ones involving the secular nature of the state. And what wig said.

[Hazir]

Ones involving the secular nature of the state. And what wig said.

And that net catches a lot of legislation.

Why this is a loss for Erdogan? I suggest you read article so that you don't have to take my word for this. Before you do keep in mind that the Zaman newspaper is one that is very supportive of the AKP.

Erdogan's big scheme would now need the involvement of either CHP or both other opposition parties to get his proposals off the ground. The parties concerned may be willing to change a lot of things in Turkey, but they are not going to legislate themselves into insignificance for the greater glory of Erdogan. A man who they think of as somebody who doesn't deliver on his promises if they're being friendly.

[Loki]

Why can't he just get a bunch of independent Kurds?

[Hazir]

Why can't he just get a bunch of independent Kurds?

Because they are not really independent (they are closely related to PKK) and will demand autonomy for Kurdistan.

[Loki]

Are you sure a handful can be persuaded with some economic goodies?

[Hazir]

Are you sure a handful can be persuaded with some economic goodies?

Pretty certain they can't be bought. We're talking about a marxist/terrorist background here. People they would cross by surrendering 'Kurdistan' settle their scores with bullets.