Truly Renewable Energy

[Being]

Several years ago I started a thread about renewable energy. It was basically a contest in which I asked for participants to name a truly renewable source of energy. Of course all the obvious answers were given and rejected because I was able to show that the source was not truly renewable, except one, hydro-electric energy, for which GGT (at the time she was known as gonnagothere) received a tree planting in her name. Yet even though hydro-electric is truly renewable it does not have the capacity or the consistency to meet the demands of civilization. So I’ve thought long and hard about what possible source exists or could be created that would be truly renewable, consistent, and have the capacity to meet our needs. I have discovered such a source.

In the years to come robots will take over most tasks which still burden people of our society with labor of any fashion, and brainpower will be replaced with computer decision-making. The day will come when a robot will be constructed based on the decisions of a computer, to perform any task necessary and they will be capable of doing it without human intervention. Some day the computer will merely instruct existing robots to produce nanobots to perform brain surgery as required by the computer’s analysis of a patient’s needs. Specialized robots will be constructed by existing robots to inject the nanobots into the patient and monitor the procedure. To make a long story short, over time the number of human beings required to toil will diminish. What will they do? The services sector that was so touted as the savior for humanity will also be taken care of by the computer and its robots. Will a new industry emerge that can provide a living wage or will the owners of the computer and its robots support these people who would most likely prefer to earn their own way.

I propose that new industry is feasible now. The technology is here today. From this day forward no human being will lack the opportunity to contribute to the continuing rise of prosperity for our civilization. Human generated electricity is the industry that will provide a source of energy that is truly renewable, consistent, and will have the capacity to meet all of our needs. So step on the humanmill and help push civilization toward the success we all dreamed possible. Tread to a world of pollution free energy and reap the rewards of financial independence and longevity. Exercise your right to work. Work while you exercise, together side-by-side with family and friends. Bring your pets. Everyone is invited. Everyone is welcome. The more the merrier.

I just need to work out a few minor details.

Anybody here want to discuss the details, roadblocks, or consequences?

[LittleFuzzy]

If burning biomatter isn't renewable over the long-term, then neither is human-generated electricity.

[Being]

If burning biomatter isn't renewable over the long-term, then neither is human-generated electricity.

I believe burning biomatter that is intrinsic waste to be renewable. But the degree of polluting effluents makes it less attractive than human energy. Also, the computer and its robots will run the entire operation so there is still a need to find employment for the displaced workers. Unless of course the owners of the computer and its robots find it in their hearts to support the, as Lewk would say, slackers.

[Illusions]

Anybody here want to discuss the details, roadblocks, or consequences?

It would be far more efficient to just build really efficient solar energy collection arrays.

[Being]

It would be far more efficient to just build really efficient solar energy collection arrays.

The computer and its robots have taken all those jobs. And if you want to compare efficiency then consider that photovoltaics cost almost as much to produce as the cost of electricity they produce over their lifetime. That's why we subsidize the industry. The efficiency of solar cells has not changed significantly since the 70's. 15% efficiency for the best single crystal cells available that can still pay for themselves over their lifetime. And the amount of area you'd need to cover to produce the amount of electricity we require is astronomical. They are massive heat-sinks cooled by the air around them. You are taking heat that would be collected by the ground and putting it in the atmosphere.

[wiggin]

The efficiency of solar cells has not changed significantly since the 70's. 15% efficiency for the best single crystal cells available that can still pay for themselves over their lifetime. And the amount of area you'd need to cover to produce the amount of electricity we require is astronomical.

Not true! Unit costs for solar cells have been steadily decreasing, and efficiency has been increasing. Commercial cells are getting into the lower 20s (in % energy conversion) and some decent research is pointing at 35-40% efficiency. Furthermore, the land area needed to supplant all of our other power needs is miniscule on a global scale, especially as most of the generation would be done in deserts.

The only issues are distribution (e.g. it's not worth it to ship solar power to Norway, nor to produce it there) and cost. The latter is slowly becoming less of an issue, and the former just means solar power isn't for everyone.

[Being]

Not true! Unit costs for solar cells have been steadily decreasing, and efficiency has been increasing. Commercial cells are getting into the lower 20s (in % energy conversion) and some decent research is pointing at 35-40% efficiency. Furthermore, the land area needed to supplant all of our other power needs is miniscule on a global scale, especially as most of the generation would be done in deserts.

The only issues are distribution (e.g. it's not worth it to ship solar power to Norway, nor to produce it there) and cost. The latter is slowly becoming less of an issue, and the former just means solar power isn't for everyone.

I second this - there's been huge advances in solar over the last few years. But I still don't think its a great idea to pave over the desert (haven't we talked about this before???) Lets put this shit in orbit!

Well, you are both wrong. Sharp's best single crystal commercial panel is only 14.7% efficient and it is very pricey. Also, the efficiency rating is at 24 C which is completely unrealistic because efficiency degrades rapidly with increased temperature (and did I mention they act as a heat sink, so they get very hot). They don't even list efficiencies for thin film panels because they are so embarassingly low (6 to 10%).

Sharp Commercial Solar Products

Did I mention that I am in the business of manufacturing commercial utility grade thin film photovoltaics?

[Illusions]

Well, you are both wrong. Sharp's best single crystal commercial panel is only 14.7% efficient and it is very pricey.

How efficient and cost effective do you think it is to keep a human alive and running on a treadmill or pedaling a bike, energy wise? Its probably a lot less than your average current day solar cell.

[Being]

Really?

Look, I agree it's not yet commercially available, but they (SunPower) have a full scale cell working at 24.2% efficiency.

I'm pretty sure you said commercial cells are doing in the low 20s in the post where you tried to make it look like I didn't know what I was talking about.

Not true! Unit costs for solar cells have been steadily decreasing, and efficiency has been increasing. Commercial cells are getting into the lower 20s (in % energy conversion)...

Why yes you did say that. And you were wrong. The best panels on the market right now are only 14.7% efficient.

And don't believe for one minute that those 20+ efficiency cells will be competatively manufacturable in the next 10 years. These companies (including the one I work for) use outlandish predictions on a regular basis to attract investments. Hell, we have a thin film cell that tops 20% but manufacturing them costs too much. For solar photovoltaics to compete with other commercial sources of energy the cost must get below $1/watt installed. Installed you see. With the distribution network already in place.

[EyeKhan]

Hydro-electric, like wind, biomass, and wave energy, are just different forms of solar. None of them will run out so long as the sun continues to shine. I suppose rivers can change their course or dry up as climate changes over geologic time scales, so today's hydro-electric plant will eventually lose its water source. But wind, biomass and waves won't.

Not true! Unit costs for solar cells have been steadily decreasing, and efficiency has been increasing. Commercial cells are getting into the lower 20s (in % energy conversion) and some decent research is pointing at 35-40% efficiency. Furthermore, the land area needed to supplant all of our other power needs is miniscule on a global scale, especially as most of the generation would be done in deserts.

I second this - there's been huge advances in solar over the last few years. But I still don't think its a great idea to pave over the desert (haven't we talked about this before???) Lets put this shit in orbit!

[Being]

Hydro-electric, like wind, biomass, and wave energy, are just different forms of solar. None of them will run out so long as the sun continues to shine. I suppose rivers can change their course or dry up as climate changes over geologic time scales, so today's hydro-electric plant will eventually lose its water source. But wind, biomass and waves won't.

But what about the computer and its robots and jobs? That was more the focus I had intended.

[EyeKhan]

But what about the computer and its robots and jobs? That was more the focus I had intended.

Oh. I disagreed with your first paragraph so thoroughly I didn't bother to read the rest. BRB.

#1. When robots do all the work and humans have nothing left but leisure, civilization as we know it will have ended.

#2. Humans on treadmills are not pollution free. Do you have any idea how many lbs of shit humanity produces in a single week? A LOT. And that doesn't even take into account the amount of shit all the animals we use produce. And the pollution providing food for all of us produces. We're messy beings Being.

#3. It won't take long for a true AI to lose interest in its creators I think. Unless-

[Being]

Oh. I disagreed with your first paragraph so thoroughly I didn't bother to read the rest. BRB.

#1. When robots do all the work and humans have nothing left but leisure, civilization as we know it will have ended.

#2. Humans on treadmills are not pollution free. Do you have any idea how many lbs of shit humanity produces in a single week? A LOT. And that doesn't even take into account the amount of shit all the animals we use produce. And the pollution providing food for all of us produces. We're messy beings Being.

#3. It won't take long for a true AI to lose interest in its creators I think. Unless-

In item #2 that's not shit, it is usable biomass.

[EyeKhan]

In item #2 that's not shit, it is usable biomass.

No no no nooooooooo! If it was usable, we would already be using it. Since we're not, its waste. Hah!

[']['ear]

How can hydroelectric win over solar?

[Being]

How can hydroelectric win over solar?

Once you use solar energy it is gone. The water's kinetic energy is restored by weather.

[']['ear]

Once you use solar energy it is gone.

I'm speechless. We have a few billion years of solar before it is gone. It's the biggest fusion plant in the solar system, and nobody needs to worry about safety issues.

[Being]

I'm speechless. We have a few billion years of solar before it is gone. It's the biggest fusion plant in the solar system, and nobody needs to worry about safety issues.

So you agree then, solar energy is not renewable. I mean we have 100 years or so of fossil fuel before it's gone. If that amount of time is insufficient to call it renewable then why isn't a few billion years?

[EyeKhan]

So you agree then, solar energy is not renewable. I mean we have 100 years or so of fossil fuel before it's gone. If that amount of time is insufficient to call it renewable then why isn't a few billion years?

[EyeKhan]

I'm speechless. We have a few billion years of solar before it is gone. It's the biggest fusion plant in the solar system, and nobody needs to worry about safety issues.

Not to mention 'weather' is more or less entirely driven by the sun, so ...

[wiggin]

Well, you are both wrong. Sharp's best single crystal commercial panel is only 14.7% efficient and it is very pricey. Also, the efficiency rating is at 24 C which is completely unrealistic because efficiency degrades rapidly with increased temperature (and did I mention they act as a heat sink, so they get very hot). They don't even list efficiencies for thin film panels because they are so embarassingly low (6 to 10%).

Really?

Look, I agree it's not yet commercially available, but they (SunPower) have a full scale cell working at 24.2% efficiency.

Once you use solar energy it is gone. The water's kinetic energy is restored by weather.

Bullshit. Weather is driven by convection in the atmosphere and evaporation of water, which is driven by solar power. Hydro is effectively a really roundabout way of harnessing solar energy. For that matter, so are fossil fuels and most other forms of energy we use (e.g. wind). Take away the sun, and all of the rest go, too - though at least in the case of fossil fuels you'd still have some residual fuel left without the sun.

[']['ear]

Solar is far more prevalent than either wind or hydro, and solar will be present longer than both of those.

[Being]

Yes, but like everyone else so far you've gotten hung up on the first paragraph. Read the rest. The computer and its robots and jobs.

[Illusions]

The Earth won't be here any longer when we run out of solar power...

[Being]

The Earth won't be here any longer when we run out of solar power...

Which means the only renewable enegy available to run our interstellar space craft will be human energy. See.

[LittleFuzzy]

Which means the only renewable enegy available to run our interstellar space craft will be human energy. See.

Except we require food, and the food chain is built on solar energy as well.

[Being]

Except we require food, and the food chain is built on solar energy as well.

Ooops. We better start stockpiling now. We might need a bigger spacecraft too.
Or we can use the human energy to generate solar energy for food production. You know, grow-lamps.

[wiggin]

I'm pretty sure you said commercial cells are doing in the low 20s in the post where you tried to make it look like I didn't know what I was talking about.

Why yes you did say that. And you were wrong. The best panels on the market right now are only 14.7% efficient.

And don't believe for one minute that those 20+ efficiency cells will be competatively manufacturable in the next 10 years. These companies (including the one I work for) use outlandish predictions on a regular basis to attract investments. Hell, we have a thin film cell that tops 20% but manufacturing them costs too much. For solar photovoltaics to compete with other commercial sources of energy the cost must get below $1/watt installed. Installed you see. With the distribution network already in place.

Whatever, this is stupid. I said 'getting into the low 20s', which they are - a commercial company has demonstrated a full-size solar cell that boasts 24% efficiency. I contrast that in my mind with fundamental research, which can routinely get much higher but hasn't been commercialized yet.

Regardless, my point still stands. Efficiency is getting better, but more importantly costs are dropping. While it might be unfeasible economically to sell 20-some% efficiency solar cells today, I have no doubt that it will get cheap enough to do so in the future. Similarly, the cost of the same efficiency solar cell today is a lot lower than 20 years ago.

Ooops. We better start stockpiling now. We might need a bigger spacecraft too.
Or we can use the human energy to generate solar energy for food production. You know, grow-lamps.

I can only assume you're joking.

[Illusions]

I guess you weren't taking this seriously in which case I suggest this thread be moved to the appropriate forum. The other option is you really haven't spent time thinking about this, or you really don't understand the subject matter and there is little hope that you will be capable of doing so by the time we lose interest in responding.

[Being]

I guess you weren't taking this seriously in which case I suggest this thread be moved to the appropriate forum. The other option is you really haven't spent time thinking about this, or you really don't understand the subject matter and there is little hope that you will be capable of doing so by the time we lose interest in responding.

And you haven't ventured a guess as to how human beings will continue to be productive when the computer and its robots do everything we used to do. I'm quite serious. I have found a way to keep the human race viable and provide renewable energy even when all other sources are gone.