Will Euro fall apart?

[ar81]

What do you think?

[GGT]

I think worries over the Euro's future are messing with everyone.

http://www.project-syndicate.org/com...-perfect-storm

Roubini may be among the cynics and chicken-littles, but he's also quite good at looking at the big picture and sounding alarms when most people are busy looking at their own up-sides and profit margins.

(He even mentions de-coupling in his analysis, Loki. )

Batten down the hatches, fasten seat belts and lock tables in upright mode, prepare for crash landing.....?

[Steely Glint]

Depends on if the centre can hold.

[GGT]

Depends on if the centre can hold.

The center cannot hold. Gyre and gymble in the wabe....slythy or mimsy in the borogoves.

If Grexit happens, it's no longer a Currency Union, and the Unicurrency (unicorn) dies a mome rath death, outgrabe.

Shiny, brillig, mothra nervana death. Colonies of army ants will follow any corpse scent, devouring their own to follow the light...of promise.

[Steely Glint]

The center cannot hold. Gyre and gymble in the wabe....slythy or mimsy in the borogoves.

If Grexit happens, it's no longer a Currency Union, and the Unicurrency (unicorn) dies a mome rath death, outgrabe.

Shiny, brillig, mothra nervana death. Colonies of army ants will follow any corpse scent, devouring their own to follow the light...of promise.

the fuck

[Loki]

Not going to happen. Too much at stake and too many countries will suffer horrible losses (political and economic) if it does happen. It's not beyond the realm of possibility that some countries will be asked to leave temporarily though.

[LittleFuzzy]

Yeah. Shrinkage seems like something that might be a real possibility and not just idle speculation but an abandonment of the project just does not seem in the cards.

[Loki]

Wait, so if the eurozone has 17 members, it's a currency union, but if that decreases to 16 members, then it's not? Another term you decided to redefine?

[GGT]

That was my crappy poetic way of saying that even if Greece exits by choice, or is told to exit "temporarily" by the EU....the center may not hold, because what defines The Union, at its center, isn't clear.

Jabberwocky aside, only those nations with their own currency (and central bank) appear to have the ability to wait out the EU crisis. Regardless of what Germany, the ECB or IMF decides to do.

[ar81]

Euro will NOT fall apart. If ECB considered that Euro would collapse more with current situation, compared to a QE, ECB would have already done a bail out. Citizens from PIIGS may be screwed up, but Euro fall is unlikely in my opinion, even if Greece and Spain go out from it.

Greek economy is just the size of 1/4 of Spain economy, too small.

That was my crappy poetic way of saying that even if Greece exits by choice, or is told to exit "temporarily" by the EU....the center may not hold, because what defines The Union, at its center, isn't clear. Jabberwocky aside, only those nations with their own currency (and central bank) appear to have the ability to wait out the EU crisis. Regardless of what Germany, the ECB or IMF decides to do.

Having a national currency allows to have monetary sovereignity to set interest rates and money exchange rates. Without it, a country becomes a municipal government with an army. The curious thing is that central bankers are not elected democratically and still they control national economy.

Having an expensive currency makes citizens of a nation undesirable as workers as they are too expensive. This is the curse of people in the EU, USA and Japan. You are seeing Korean names in a realm where you used to see japanese animators.