Riots in Turkey?
So a few days ago, protests started popping up in Turkey, turning into standard riots with standard, but likely heavy handed police retaliation. Now I don't really think this is Arab Spring Vol. 3, but this situation doesn't seem to be resolving quickly. I thought the earlier protests were geared at trying to force Erodigan and Parliament to resign, but is there really a chance of this going further?
http://www.economist.com/blogs/charl...rkish-politics
This is a pretty good summary of what's going on.
Hope is the denial of reality
It is. The fact that this is happening is not surprising to me. The only thing that surprised me is that it was the Gezi Park that turned out to be the issue that made things come to a boiling point. Virtually everybody from Turkey who's in my facebook is involved in protests against Erdogan. That includes people I considered unshakable AKP voters. People are fed up with the style of government of the man I've been calling Padisah (the turkish term for Sultan) for over 2 years now.Originally Posted by Loki
Congratulations America
A lot of my Occupy friends on Facebook are majorly into this. This sorta surprises me, even though I guess it shouldn't. I guess there are just so many people whose misdeeds they support because said leader is "not western" (EG Chavez). Then again, the ruling party in Turkey is a pretty capitalist/merchant-loving bunch from what I understand, so maybe it makes more sense than it seems.
I don't think this is much a reverence to Wall street. It uses "occupy" because it is a catchy name, and maybe because the Turks don't want to be put in the same pot as the Arab spring.
"Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt
Remember that the main opposition in Turkey is made up of secular, nationalist, socialists. Many of them (at least the young ones) even use the language of "occupy".
Hope is the denial of reality
There is no 'main' opposition in Turkey, which is part of the bigger problem. If you want to understand Turkish politics, imagine a US where the Democratic Party has imploded.
Congratulations America
An increasingly paranoid and out-of-touch wannabe sultan.
Hope is the denial of reality
Let me attempt to explain why people are so fed up with this man.
We in Taksim know, almost by word of mouth that there is 'a project'. Nobody really knows exactly what the project is going to be, people who are tenacious enough can find an animation on the website of the AKP Beyoglu branch, not on any government website. The traffic plan doesn't even look that bad, but full disclosure seems to much to ask for. Beginning november rumour has it that the project will start at the end of the month. At least, we know that some businesses affected by the project have been notified that they will have to close by the end of the month. Then a full day later, we have to get used to the fact that a plywood wall has gone up around the building site, it's at least a km long and it effectively cuts the center of Beyoglu (Taksim) in two. There is obviously no understanding that people need to be informed about how to get from one side to the other. Both locals and thousands of tourists are lost on a trek around the wall, the most common walk leads through the Gezi Park. Where a tiny protest is still going on; people look at the tree huggers with a little bit less disdain, but think they are fighting a hopeless struggle because 'This is Turkey'.
It is not untill two months into the works that the authorities understand that they have gone to far; people are actually tearing out pieces of the wall so that they can cross over to the other side again. So we get a safe-ish walkway through the construction site.
Then the city starts telling us how wonderful the square is going to be. This is done by pretty pictures of happy people on a big square full of green, flowers and happy people. We get confirmation that the Ottoman barracks will be rebuilt as a social and cultural centre.
Fast forward to may 2013; suddenly there is word from the protesters in the park that there will be no social and cultural centre at all; the barracks is just an excuse to built yet another mall (Istanbul has already 11 too many of those). 'We' think the protesters must be wrong; the signs clearly state there will be a social and cultural centre. Before this debate can start, the protesters are gassed out of the park by a show of force that's excessive even by Turkish standards. People who have little to no interest in the Gezi Park start saying 'enough', not just in Taksim, but all over the city and country.
Then when the Padisah can no longer deny there are serious protests and that the police has lost control alltogether (let there be no mistake; the police withdrew because they were losing the battle dramatically despite all the teargas) he tells there no longer is a plan for a mall in the barracks. This is the first time we learn that the social and cultural center in the mind of the Padisah actually was a mall and not a social and cultural center at all. Then he goes on and tells us that he will tear down the Ataturk Cultural Center (AKM) and replace it with a a beautiful opera house and that there will be a mosque in Taksim square and that he will need nobody's permission for that. The thing is, the AKM is a a bit of an eyesore, but it also happens to be a listed building, so the Padisah can only tear it down with nobodies permission if he's willing to ignore the law altogether (on a sidenote; the Sabanci Holding publishes a press release expressing its surprise, because it just agreed with the Culture Department that it will contribute 30 million Turkish Lira's towards the renovation of the AKM). The mosque on the other hand is another pet project of the Padisah that he's been striving for for the last 20 years. The announcement is just informing people of the project of the Taksim Cumhuriyet Camii that has actually already been decided (as I found out because I realised where it could be built after the Square has been pedestrianized and then went trolling for it online).
Just a little example of how the Padisah rules; I could have used any of a number of subjects to do so. The pattern is the same every time; the Padisah has an opinion and his minions turn it into the law of the land in a matter of weeks. Never bothering with a serious debate, because after all 'we got 50% (actually 49%, but 50% sounds so much better) of the vote at the elections'.
Congratulations America
I wasn't referring to a specific party. Erdogan is known for being an Islamist, an economic liberal, and an internationalist. Not surprisingly, his main opponents are in the opposing camps. Unfortunately, they're too useless to ever win an election. Their socialism doesn't help either.
Hope is the denial of reality
Last year we holidayed in Egypt. Next Thursday we go on Honeymoon in Turkey ...
Wow, I think you guys should go on tour... you might get sponsored by some leftist organisation
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
One of the more popular reddit comments on this. Its been amazing to and watch and read this unfold over the past couple of days.
For those who are asking for an explanation that your average American will understand...
Both by tradition and by constitutional mandate, Turkey is a secular country. Separation of church and state, basically - but just like in the US, there's always been some friction about the degree of separation.
Just like in the US, people in rural areas tend to be more religious, people in urban areas tend to be less so - but keep in mind, when I say "more religious", I am talking about Muslims, but not Jihadis or fundamentalists or whatever term you prefer.
Anyway, the ruling government in Turkey has been increasingly Islamist for the last few years, and has been pushing unusually hard towards the 'more religion' side of the equation. As opposition has increased, the government has become increasingly hostile and repressive.
The Turkish military is a secular organization. Several times in the past when the rural areas of the country elected a ruling group that went too far towards Islamic law in government, the military has stepped in, overthrown the government in a coup, then returned to civil elections once everybody calmed down.
So is Turkey headed for a Syrian-type civil war? No. The Turkish police are under the thumb of the government, but the military is not, and just like in Egypt, the military is the real power. If the current government is overthrown, there will be elections again - but unlike Egypt, fundamentalist organizations don't have major power in Turkey, and are unlikely to wield a controlling influence.
EDIT: Spelling.
EDIT 2: Let me clarify one thing that seems to be causing a lot of confusion. When you say 'government' to an American, they tend to think of the entire permanent edifice of governing - everything from the congress to the IRS to the EPA to the military. But Turkey has a parliamentary system (like the UK) so when you say 'government' in that context, you're talking about the ruling (or majority) party.
Like for example, when "Nigel Snuffleknickers has been elected Prime Minister, and will now begin assembling the new government" - it doesn't mean the whole thing gets scrapped and rebuilt. It just means new people in charge.
From what I'm getting the occupy part of this really picked up steam because of the local media blackout, and people have started in mass to pull their money out of the banks that are connected to said media.
"In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."
It's highly questionable whether the military has the ability to step in any more; Erdogan has carried out several purges to clip their wings.
You fail to understand the independence of the Turkish army if you think that Erdogan's 'purges' enabled him to put his men in charge of the army, because it didn't. There is no organisation outside of the army that decides who runs the army. The army is also showing tacit and tangible support for the protests against Erdogan, by treating people at its Gumussuyu facility and by handing out gas masks to demonstrators.
The army is not likely to actively intervene, but the army also is far from unable to do so. I have no doubt the army will act if Erdogan makes the mistake of mobilizing his party members.
Congratulations America
What kind of AKP mobilization do you think would provoke the military?
Any not purely political solution for this crisis. For the simple reason that could effectively put the country into a state of civil war. Erdogan is acting like a mad man at the moment by refusing to say anything that might defuse the situation. As he held another press conference in Tunis telling the Taksim park project will continue caused the exchange plunge 5% and the turkish lira 2%.
Congratulations America
I don't know the Turkis situation that well, so I'm curious if it's significant that the president and vice prime minister publicly disagree with Erdogan? And is it common to blame unrest on foreign powers and extremists and dismissing them like that?
Keep on keepin' the beat alive!
The fact that Gül disagrees with Erdogan can't be dismissed by just saying that the President has no powers. First of all the president does have real powers (the power to veto legislation), but second it can indicate that there is a split in the AKP which could seriously undermine the position of Erdogan.
Congratulations America
As of now, the president is a worthless position (Erdogan is trying to change that). Blaming foreign powers isn't that uncommon in the Middle East, and Erdogan is no exception.
Hope is the denial of reality
Or different people simply have different ways of responding to adversity. I really don't think the AKP would dump Erdogan.
Hope is the denial of reality
Don't conflate the military leadership with the rank and file. The former is still Kemalist and not a fan of Erdogan. The latter has been heavily "infiltrated" by Islamists. I wouldn't be surprised if they made up a majority of the lower officer ranks. If the generals try to stage a coup, they face a real risk of a counter-coup led by lower ranking officers.
Additionally, the officers know that the cost of a failed coup is going to be life imprisonment. I'm not sure they'd be willing to risk that for what is a fractured opposition that will give way to another Islamist government in a year.
Hope is the denial of reality
Are you crazy? The Islamists have virtually no basis in the army. The army routinely purged itself from anybody even remotely islamist. The fact that this hasn't happened for the last 2 years or so has not had a serious impact on the utter lack of real influence of the government over the army. If worst comes to worst, the generals will have the full support of the vast majority of the rank and file and soldiers. A military coup in Turkey is not what I want, but there is no way a military coup in Turkey would fail.
Congratulations America
Perhaps I was incorrect when I said 'unable', but I certainly don't think they have as free of a hand as they used to. Unwilling is part of it, yes, but not all of it.
They are any way as free as they used to be, they are just not as willing to act because they oversee the long term risk better after the 1980 coup. If Erdogan mobilizes his supporters though they will classify the situation as possibly leading to a civil war and they will act according to their Constitutional duties.
Congratulations America
"According to Veren, Gülen has argued that the military expels no more than one in forty Islamist officers; the rest remain in undercover cells. While such allegations may seem the stuff of conspiracy theory, recent leaks to pro-AKP media suggest a number of Islamist sources within the military ranks, creating speculation that followers of Gülen now populate the senior infrastructure of the Turkish General Staff. Such speculation gained additional credence after the August 2008 Supreme Military Council (Yüksek Askeri Şura, YAŞ), which, for the first time, declined to expel suspected Islamists from military ranks."
http://www.meforum.org/2045/fethulla...grand-ambition
That's 4 years without explicit purges and even longer without successful ones.
Edit: http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2013/...ts-soccer.html
Last edited by Loki; 06-04-2013 at 05:40 PM.
Hope is the denial of reality
Leaving a suspect in his position. Even if that's true, that still means nothing given the fact that the army itself appoints and fires."According to Veren, Gülen has argued that the military expels no more than one in forty Islamist officers; the rest remain in undercover cells. While such allegations may seem the stuff of conspiracy theory, recent leaks to pro-AKP media suggest a number of Islamist sources within the military ranks, creating speculation that followers of Gülen now populate the senior infrastructure of the Turkish General Staff. Such speculation gained additional credence after the August 2008 Supreme Military Council (Yüksek Askeri Şura, YAŞ), which, for the first time, declined to expel suspected Islamists from military ranks."
http://www.meforum.org/2045/fethulla...grand-ambition
That's 4 years without explicit purges and even longer without successful ones.
Edit: http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2013/...ts-soccer.html
Congratulations America
I've read some "professional analysis" of the riots, but Hazir's explanation is more helpful.
Turkey was considered the stable, sectarian, democratic stronghold, amid the general mess of the middle east. Until the current government took it upon themselves to "abuse" their powers, demonstrated by mysterious "public projects" that looked more like building monuments to immortalize political party figures than serving the general public....and creating new demands on private sector operations using religious-based (fundamental Islamic) guidelines, like female airline attendants totally covering their heads / hair, main body parts, and extremities.
Defusing the situation isn't his specialty; escalation and paranoia are.
Hope is the denial of reality
Seems like the Padisah thought it expediënt to throw some extra oil on the fire. Very smart move to do that at the beginning of the weekend indeed.
Congratulations America
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