I've got a minor conundrum and I thought some of the political folks here would have some interesting strategies to address it. So, I live in a Super Tuesday state that is polling with a wide margin for Trump and a small margin for Sanders. My priorities are to ensure that neither Trump, Cruz, or Sanders is nominated. I'd prefer a Clinton-Kasich election but will find a Clinton-Rubio election also palatable given the unlikeliness of a Kasich nomination.
My question is how to best use my primary vote to best support my preferred outcome. Some useful information:
1. All delegates are proportionally allocated. There are 91 at stake for the Dems and 42 for the GOP, but remember that GOP delegates are about twice as valuable for the convention.
2. The opinion polls show Trump with ~50% and everyone else in the teens or lower, but polling of GOP primaries in Mass is routinely off because upwards of 2/3 of GOP primary voters are not card-carrying Republicans and may be undercounted in the (sparse) polling. Sanders' lead in polls, while slight, is probably more believable given his geographic proximity, better polling coverage, and his history of progressive politics.
I'm inclined to lean towards taking a GOP ballot just because I don't see an easy way for Sanders to win, especially after Clinton's likely strong showing in southern states on Super Tuesday. That being said, this is one of the 2 or 3 states he has a chance of taking on Super Tuesday, and it could help his narrative a bit by a win... and it doesn't seem likely I can make much of a dent against Trump's (albeit iffy) numbers. In terms of who to vote for, it seems like Kasich is just a wasted vote, just to make a point, while Rubio might legitimately need every delegate were he to get to a contested convention.
What do you think? Is there a way (mathematical or otherwise) to reasonably choose the vote that will maximize the chances of my desired outcome? Polling data is so scarce and spotty that it's very hard to choose a best option.




Reply With Quote
