Eurogeddon redux: What will happen to the European Project?

[Loki]

Lega Nord percentage of total vote:

1992: 8.7%
1994: 8.4%
1996: 10.1%
2001: 3.9%
2006: 4.6%
2008: 8.3%

Polls for 2013: ~6%

Huge support indeed.

[RandBlade]

Is that total Northern vote, or total Italian vote? Support can vary though in the past/future, you see wide variance amongst those figures.

[Loki]

The north has about half of Italy's population. How does the variance matter when this party averaged about 15-20% of the northern vote ever since its creation? There's also the fact that secession isn't a formal policy of the party, and many of its voters aren't voting for the League based on secessionist impulses.

[earthJoker]

And that makes about as much sense as Germany and France merging to form one country.

What I am saying is, that the split off of the Lombardy is much more likely that that whole Padinia would split. Compare your numbers with those of the Lombardy (Lega Nord in %):
18,9 23,0 22,1 17,7 25,5 13,1 15,5 12,1 13,8 15,8 11,7 21,6 22,7 26,2 (1990 - 2010)

[Loki]

What I am saying is, that the split off of the Lombardy is much more likely that that whole Padinia would split. Compare your numbers with those of the Lombardy (Lega Nord in %):
18,9 23,0 22,1 17,7 25,5 13,1 15,5 12,1 13,8 15,8 11,7 21,6 22,7 26,2 (1990 - 2010)

That was my point all along. If there's going to be any secession, it will be by individual regions in Italy, not by an entity called "Northern Italy", which has no identity to speak of. It's one thing to support an abstract notion of a northern Italy, but once it comes time to go over the details, most supporters of the project would realize that they'd have the same problem in a northern Italian state as they do in Italy right now.

20% of the vote for a party that tends to call for autonomy isn't saying much by the way.

[GGT]

.....
Which Hazir has long told us is happening/will happen.....

Yet, a few of this forum's most vocal posters has managed to force Hazir into "exile", by being obnoxiously contentious. Way to go.

[RandBlade]

20% of the vote for a party that tends to call for autonomy isn't saying much by the way.

20% was the maximum traditional polling of the SNP in Scotland (low teens more common) until they made a breakthrough. Its not a bad starting point if events change the situation.

[Loki]

20% was the maximum traditional polling of the SNP in Scotland (low teens more common) until they made a breakthrough. Its not a bad starting point if events change the situation.

Actually, the SNP started with 20%, and they've made it to over 30% within a few elections (in the Scottish parliament). And once again, the Scots think of themselves as a separate nation, the northern Italians do not.

[RandBlade]

1979 17.3%
1983 11.7%
1987 14.0%
1992 21.5%

[Loki]

I said Scottish Parliament elections...

You can also see a trend upwards. There is no such trend for the Lega Nord.

[earthJoker]

That was my point all along.

I never disagreed with you on that. I just didn't want to go that far with my speculations to specify what would happen with the segregated parts. Well Austria maybe will get south Tirol or even Triest back

[RandBlade]

I said Scottish Parliament elections...

You can also see a trend upwards. There is no such trend for the Lega Nord.

SP elections only started relatively recently. We're hardly in a state of stability at the moment.