You want a citation for a negative. The Speaker has no special voting powers. None whatsoever, in any context. The only relevance the position holds beyond the purely internal rules of order the House chooses to operate under is that the Speaker has a defined place in the government's line of succession.Originally Posted by GGT
Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"
I know that, but I think the idea is that people would be very unhappy about an election decided that way.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
That one's easy and has precedent. If the Reps of a State in the House split evenly then that state casts no vote towards getting a majority of States. Again like the Electoral College you need an absolute majority (not plurality) so that harms both candidates chances as the bar remains 26 states not 25.
Unlike the Electoral College the House votes repeatedly until it gets a result. I believe the record is 36 rounds of votes being required until a decision was made.
GGT he's given a citation. It doesn't matter though as its blocks of States that matter not individual Reps and certainly not one Rep alone.
I don't pretend to be so wise as to be able to predict this. All I have been able to accurately predict is stumping for Obama by various corners of the coastal media elite.
Make your prediction. Don't be a weenie.
I suppose. It's far from clear that every Congressman would vote along party lines though.
Hope is the denial of reality
Which leads to same point as made about faithless electors. It means non-even could equally cause an even result too. Surely in this day and age if anyone (in the first round at least) voted against their party they'd be expelled from the party.I suppose. It's far from clear that every Congressman would vote along party lines though.
For thirty years, I have plotted against the Party
I am sick, of mind and body
In the future, the Berlin wall will be a mile high, and made of steel. You too will be made to crawl, to lick children's blood from jackboots. There will be no creativity, only productivity. Instead of love there will be fear and distrust, instead of surrender there will be submission. Contact will be replaced with isolation, and joy with shame. Hope will cease to exist as a concept. The Earth will be covered with steel and concrete. There will be an electronic policeman in every head. Your children will be born in chains, live only to serve, and die in anguish and ignorance.
The universe we observe has precisely the properties we should expect if there is, at bottom, no design, no purpose, no evil, no good, nothing but blind, pitiless indifference.
We have a candidate-oriented system here. Party expulsions are incredibly rare (and usually happen for criminal behavior) and are generally not a credibly deterrent. People usually get threatened with bad committee assignments, no chairmanships, and no votes on their pork projects. Even then, someone from say the deep south might be willing to ignore those incentives because of how unpopular Obama is down there.
Hope is the denial of reality
Well, electors are elected to cast their vote for a candidate, whereas a congressman is elected to represent his constituency. I would imagine some voting for what their constituency wants rather than his party.
Keep on keepin' the beat alive!
The Meso-Americans did their own research over a millennia ago and predicted a Romney win in 2012, closely followed by the end of the world.
I can not imagine the DNC or any Democratic caucus ever forgiving a (D) Congressman voting to elect a (R) President. Especially given these are not secret ballots.
Hope is the denial of reality
They voted for other (D)s not (R)s.
Plus Speaker is very different to POTUS.
They could very easily pull the same stunt (i.e. abstain). There are quite a few Democratic candidates in the South who refuse to say anything about Obama.
Hope is the denial of reality
These are starting to align a little better.
538 has Obama at 307.2 and Romney at 230.8 and princeton has Obama at 305 and Romney at 233.
and before Loki has another hissy fit, I'm going to give Romney Ohio, Florida, and Virginia for shits and giggles, but give the other Dem leaning battleground states to Obama. So 272 to 266.
Last edited by Ominous Gamer; 11-05-2012 at 02:58 PM.
"In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."
290 (Obama gets Colorado, Ohio, NH, Wisconsin, Nevada. Loses Florida, Virginia.)
+1.5% popular vote margin
52 Senators
194 Reps (kinda a guess, I know it'll be somewhere in that ballpark but I haven't looked at enough of the close races to really know.)
Since certain people here don't seem to trust polls, I figured I'd put the predictions of the of the main poll aggregators, 538 and RCP.
538:
Colorado: Obama 2.7%
Florida: Obama 0.2%
Iowa: Obama 3.4%
New Hampshire: Obama 3.7%
North Carolina: Romney 1.6%
Ohio: Obama 3.2%
Virginia: Obama 2.2%
Nevada: Obama 4.7%
RCP:
Colorado: Obama 1.5%
Florida: Romney 1.5%
Iowa: Obama 2.4%
New Hampshire: Obama 2.0%
North Carolina: Romney 3.0%
Ohio: Obama 2.9%
Virginia: Obama 0.3%
Nevada: Obama 2.8%
There are some ~1% differences between the two sources, but they predict the same outcome in each state. We'll see who's better (or if they both suck).
For those expecting Romney to vote, note that Romney has to win almost every state where he's down by 2-3%.
Edit: 538 made some last-second changes (all in the direction of Obama).
Last edited by Loki; 11-06-2012 at 05:08 AM.
Hope is the denial of reality
Holy Crap, I can't believe someone's letting you maniacs vote tomorrow.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
I'm asking for your prediction, not to cite every poll aggregator.
"In a field where an overlooked bug could cost millions, you want people who will speak their minds, even if they’re sometimes obnoxious about it."
I voted a week back.
I wanted people to see the exact predictions. It's not very hard to predict the specific states when 47 states have a greater than 2% margin.
Hope is the denial of reality
This election seemed to go by a lot quicker than the others, though.I voted a week back.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
Really? I don't think anything of substance happened in D.C. in the last year thanks to the election.
Hope is the denial of reality
I just haven't payed as much attention to it as the previous ones.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
Strangely enough Obama is doing a little bit better in polls recently. Pundits have said it was because of the storm let him look presidential. But I have a hard time believing anyone would change their vote because they see Obama hugging someone after a hurricane. Bizarre.
I'm still optimistic about Romney but it might be closer then I would like. If Ohio doesn't go the right way... it doesn't look good.
Obama's numbers were improving before the storm, and haven't really changed since then. The areas most affected by the storm - NY, NJ, and Connecticut - aren't exactly swing states anyway.
Hope is the denial of reality
RCP poll of polls has steadily inched forward for Obama in the last week and a half. Romney was up about .5 and slowly its gone back toward Obama. Very annoying.
You have to look at when those polls were taken.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ey-off-course/
Hope is the denial of reality
Really? I don't. I think that most people vote based on party alliance or cast their ballot based on a random whim or half-assed line of reasoning they dreamed up in the shower one day. Hugging someone after a hurricane is easily enough to sway such people.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
Changing my prediction to Romney win with 275.
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