The old days might have been at Atard.Originally Posted by RandBlade
I don't remember us ever debating that
The old days might have been at Atard.I don't remember us ever debating that
They were ready to close down Wall Street proper, but let e-trading and HFT continue on the exchanges. After all, most trading isn't really done "on" Wall Street anymore. But since financiers and CEOs like to live in Zone A.....which was a mandatory evacuation area.....well, you get the point.
Agreed on education and infrastructure. Strongly disagreed on tax breaks targeted to any particular industry.
Isn't it possible that some of that wave of the future includes the opportunities in financial services brought about by globalization?However, I do also think that, just as the economy and society in general have been changed massively by technology, there are equally massive and potentially more profound changes to come in the future, and it would be a good idea if we were riding the crest of that particular wave and that in such a changing world an economy based on fucking around with... shares or whatever it is they do is a house built on shifting sand.
My sister in law works at Canary Wharf, and most of the day today was spent worrying about high tide in Manhattan/NJ instead of their normal technological wizardry because all of their data centers are in the NY metro area.
I wonder how long before we get the "New York got attacked by God for being too liberal" nonsense.
Hope is the denial of reality
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/20...blind-spot/?hp
Thought I'd post this here. I have no idea how the Krugman-fanboys think his proposed policies would actually make the economic situation better.
Hope is the denial of reality
Depends on what services you mean, and if they're connected to newly created financial "products" that can blow up. London Whale?
Several out-of-state hospitals house their servers in NY/NJ and lost their computer systems.My sister in law works at Canary Wharf, and most of the day today was spent worrying about high tide in Manhattan/NJ instead of their normal technological wizardry because all of their data centers are in the NY metro area.
Mulligan is an academic economist, hawking his own book, too.Thought I'd post this here. I have no idea how the Krugman-fanboys think his proposed policies would actually make the economic situation better.That blurb says he agrees with Krugman on some things, but disagrees on the causes of the recession and labor market shifts. Makes sense they'd disagree on solutions.
Main point is that housing-related sectors affected consumer demand (homeowners underwater), construction (labor), banks (defaults), and municipalities (tax revenue) in a negative and deflationary feedback loop, that bled over into other employment areas.
To Brits: what exactly has Austerity meant? Which spending has been cut, and which public services have been reduced or limited? That's a genuine question --- because I don't follow the specifics. I know your military spending will be ~30% less moving forward. Cutting NHS spending hasn't been on the chopping block per se, but not sure how your pensioners and gov't employees are battling it out.
There was a NYT piece a few months ago, about NHS physicians who retire in their late 50's/early 60's with guaranteed pensions around $130,000/year USD until the day they die. That's problematic. Other stories cover the disabled, elderly or infirm trying to live in state nursing homes that had their funding cut. Also problematic.
I'm uninformed about your budgets on Education, Infrastructure, Transportation, or future public 'investments'. What's specifically been "cut"? And how will those cuts lead to future growth?
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/wo...crisis.html?hp
And austerity in Eastern Europe.
Hope is the denial of reality
http://www.economist.com/news/financ...e-more-painful
Interesting discussion on how multipliers for stimulus/austerity may change based on the broader macroeconomic climate, suggesting that when you're at the zero lower bound on interest rates and growth is anemic the multiplier from austerity gets to be a significant concern. Not specific to Britain's situation, of course, since every economy (and its estimated multiplier) is different, but it does suggest that the timing and pace of austerity/stimulus is very tricky to get right.
Duh?What that means is that austerity may hurt much more at some times than others.
Not totally surprising, though I would argue the corollary is that stimulus may hurt/help in different ways at different times.
100% agreed. Fiscal stimulus during times of high rates and decent growth is probably counterproductive. I don't think the conclusions are surprising, but the quantification (and the estimated multipliers) was illuminating.Not totally surprising, though I would argue the corollary is that stimulus may hurt/help in different ways at different times.
They're citing NBER working papers, which are not peer-reviewed (2 of them over 2 years old, more than enough time to get them accepted in a journal). Are we led to believe that there have been no published articles on the same topic? It's not very hard to find a handful of working papers that say whatever you want them to say.
It also doesn't help that the paper that goes against their thesis is by Alesina, who's a pretty famous economist...
Hope is the denial of reality
The articles were later published as real papers. For example, the Auerbach paper was published this year in the American Economic Journal. The Christiano paper was published in the Journal of Political Economy in 2011. Free Exchange normally cites the NBER working papers, possibly because they have access to NBER but not to a large library.
I'm also not sure that Alesina really disagrees.
Regardless, the point isn't that Free Exchange supports fiscal easing during certain recessions - we know they do, and it's not surprising that they would publish a column with supporting evidence. The point is that fiscal multipliers are very tricky to sort out, and there are both logical and mathematical reasons to suggest that in certain circumstances (e.g. at the zero bound on interest rates, low growth) that austerity can be less beneficial (or even harmful) than in other circumstances. The specific numbers and magnitude of the effect are open to discussion, of course.
My point is it's incredibly sloppy journalism (at best) by the Economist to be citing only old working papers. At worst, it looks like an attempt to justify their preexisting views with some third-tier scholarship.
Hope is the denial of reality
It's all right, the papers have been published now
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Which doesn't change my point about the Economist being incredibly sloppy or self-serving in its research.
Hope is the denial of reality
That is pure gobbledygook spambot.
See my comment in the other thread.
Hope is the denial of reality
Is Austerity working for Spain?
Would it be self-serving "shoddy" third tier scholarship if The Economist declared it a resounding success...OR failure?
What does "austerity" mean when a country can't actually borrow money? Is Gaza under an austerity budget?
Hope is the denial of reality
Why don't you tell us, professor.What does "austerity" mean when a country can't actually borrow money? Is Gaza under an austerity budget?
Rand, since you started this thread....why don't you tell us how Austerity has been working where you live? Begin by explaining what Austerity means....compared to what it means to other nations. Also, define "entitlements" and distinguish them from "welfare".
Has the UK decided to end its NHS, or slash its funding? Not that I can see. Not even Saint Thatcher would have proposed cutting NHS first, and finding other cuts or savings elsewhere. She was a staunch supporter of your NHS, but happened to find an international friend in Saint Reagan...who'd never propose cutting US national defense first.
Strange bed fellows, huh. Brits get to keep their NHS, spend less on their military or national defense, in order to give their citizens universal health care. As long as the US helps "subsidize" the military effort, monitor international seas, fight piracy or international terrorists of all kinds, it's all good...an even exchange....regardless of what US citizens get in return?
A few distinct issues there.
1: Biggest issue that affected me personally regarding austerity was the rise in VAT (Sales Tax).
2: The major difference between austerity in the UK and austerity in other nations, is that we've implemented it optionally. We've not waited until it was compelled. That means that its far less draconian than in other nations which are having it forced on them, since we're paying low amounts on interest.
3: No we're not ending the NHS or any major programs. Or the military.
The way its being implemented here are pretty much across the board cuts, weighted based on how they can be implemented. Yes the military budget has some fat that can be cut back (we're drawing down our military engagements afterall), but we'll still have one of the foremost military capabilities besides our ally America. The military cuts are below average. The military cuts are also not predicated on the notion that the US won't cut or will "pick up the slack", I would support equivalent savings in the American fat too. Probably again below the average rate of savings needed though.
No, the NHS is not directly being cut. But it is being frozen in real terms and in medicine nowadays with an ageing population and ever increasing drug costs that is essentially equivalent to a cut. Increasing spending by inflation may be a nominal freeze, but when the costs are rising faster than inflation then cuts need to be found in reality there too. How much is the US increasing annually both its public and private medical costs? Imagine it being frozen.
The basic way that its being done is by tackling everything you can. Many unpopular decisions, but tackling everything you can in every department rather than expecting any one area to bear all the burden. Oh and a public sector nominal pay-freeze that's lasted about three years already to bring real wages down.
Freezing spending in medicine and capping drug costs (a political hotbed of contention there, since it involves reimbursing US pharmaceuticals less, and means some "price fixing") is still rather vague.
What's being CUT -- is it on the service end or provider side? Do your NHS physicians/nurses have longer work hours (at same pay), or delayed retirement age with less in pensions? Do your 'pensioners' living in nursing homes have fewer caretakers, or is it harder to qualify for that kind of care?
Are there CUTS in public transit funding, or CUTS to upgrading/maintaining infrastructure? What are the CUTS being made to pubic Education? It's not really Austerity to add a VAT tax and freeze spending in every department, or freeze public wages.
I'm struggling to understand what you're getting at. You seem to be after some sort of "slash and burn" where the entire departments etc are abolished.
Why is it not austerity to have tax rises and spending cuts? That is precisely the point: There is waste to be found in every department. By telling each department chief, who tells their sub-departments and so on that they've now only got a budget 80% what it was then they should be able to identify the least important 10-20% and cut that away. Its called efficiency.
Perhaps this is an article you'll find interesting? While it is being attempted not to cut front-line teachers etc (though they have fallen under the 3 year pay freeze) the Department for Education has had a 50% cut to its Administration budget. Today as part of that cut it has been revealed that 1,000 staff are to be laid off (a quarter of the department) and it'll be going from 12 regional offices to just 6: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-20324346
"Austerity" IS more like slash and burn, and abolishing entire departments, though. "Austerity" is making deep cuts, taking drastic or austere measures -- more like what was expected from Greece. Cutting waste or duplications are efficiency efforts, adding a VAT tax is increasing revenue....things every nation should have been doing to balance budgets anyway, over time and in moderation. Since many didn't, and the $$ signs of debt/deficit have finally rung an alarm bell, there are a couple of decades' worth of catch-up to be done now, but I wouldn't call that "Austerity".
Thanks. It also says there's a concern about teacher-to-student ratios, quality of education, and cuts to IT that needs to be explained to parents. It's logical to reduce red tape or administrative overhang, cut some HR personnel or have fewer janitors. But no one wants the physical buildings to decay, or cram a bunch of students into over-crowded classes with too few teachers, and even fewer computers or learning labs.Perhaps this is an article you'll find interesting? While it is being attempted not to cut front-line teachers etc (though they have fallen under the 3 year pay freeze) the Department for Education has had a 50% cut to its Administration budget. Today as part of that cut it has been revealed that 1,000 staff are to be laid off (a quarter of the department) and it'll be going from 12 regional offices to just 6: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-20324346
From what you've posted here, the UK has a real problem with truancy, delinquents and drop-outs, contributing to your "Chav" population...adding to other social problems and a need for other government spending. Cutting all spending equally, 10-20% right off the top of every department, doesn't sound very efficient after all. How is the UK planning to address those problems in the near-term, let alone the long-term?
The Krugmans of the world are calling slower than average increases in spending "austerity", so I don't know why you're picking on yet another strawman.
Hope is the denial of reality
I've asked Rand some direct questions. He can answer for himself. You have no reason to keep "picking" on me, which is your own strawman, Loki.
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