Last week, a federal district court in Idaho struck down the state ban on gay marriage. That court is in the overly-extensive 9th Circuit, same as Vaughn was and the Idaho governor has declared that the state will be appealing the ruling. I expect we'll have another ruling denying the appeal and upholding the lower Court's ruling sometime in the next 18 months (the appeal will be heard twice, once by the standard 3 judge panel and once by an en banc panel of nine appellate justices). The three-panel court might strike the lower ruling down, it's always a guess with a bench the size of the 9th Circuit, but the en banc panel's ruling is much more predictable. Then there will be an appeal to the Supreme Court and unless someone retires in the interim, I predict they will deny cert and gay marriage will be legal across the 11 westernmost states in the US except for Utah (they're in the 10th Circuit). District courts have also struck down bans in Utah, Oklahoma, Virginia, Michigan, Texas, and, as of two days ago, Pennsylvania. I don't know how their respective appellate courts will rule though. If enough of them support the lower courts, SCOTUS just might end up granting cert and proving Hazir right and me wrong.


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