Will Armenia become the next Ukraine?

[Aimless]

Discuss

[Loki]

In simple terms, no. There's no significant difference in the foreign policy orientations of the major political factions. Armenia is too highly dependent on Russia to risk pissing it off (economically, politically, and militarily), something that the public is aware of. Secondly, the issue here is mainly economic. I'm going to bet that Russia will eventually give in and rescind most of the price hike to maintain stability in Armenia. On the off chance that the government does get overthrown (highly unlikely, especially as Russia won't allow it to happen), the result will be closer to the last "revolution" in Kyrgyzstan than to what's happening in Ukraine. From the Russian sphere, Kazakhstan and Belarus are where there's some potential for a Ukraine situation, and I don't think either government would allow events to get to that point.

[wiggin]

Belarus, Loki? Do you really think there's any chance of substantive change there?

[Loki]

Belarus because of the complex ethnic/nationalist situation there. Belarus and Kazakhstan are the countries in the Russian sphere that have a significant Russian minority (and they both border Russia to boot). I actually have no idea what would happen if Putin tried to play up supposed anti-Russian discrimination (by a president who speaks far better Russian than Belarusian). But Lukashenka would never allow the situation to deteriorate to that point. He's a survivor.

[wiggin]

Yeah, I just kinda assumed that given Lukashenko's role as a dictator and unabashed Russophile (and the apparent lack of any substantial domestic opposition to his rule), it isn't likely to turn into another Ukraine. I just don't see a Maidan-style protest getting any traction in Belarus. Could Putin conceivably come up with some pretext for invading Belarus anyways? Sure, something like 10% of the population is ethnic Russian and I'm confident he can come up with more bullshit like his forays into Georgia and Ukraine. But I just don't see him feeling like there's a need to do so any time soon.

Kazakhstan seems at least potentially more possible, though not probable. Although Nazarbayev is similarly pro-Russian and dictatorial (and a member of Putin's EEU), he is also at the helm of a much bigger and wealthier country that has striven to maintain friendly relations with the US and West. He has a bit more clout and leeway than Lukashenko, and could conceivably try to pull away from Russia's orbit at some point in the future. Doesn't seem all that likely right now, though.

[Loki]

Lukashenka is a Russophile when it suits him. He's been promising to join the ruble-zone since 1995. He steals billions from Russia in transit fees. He's done a particularly shoddy job of implementing various accords involving Russian-led IGOs. He also stayed silent on the Ukrainian situation. All indications are that Putin does not like the man (perhaps more than that). But as long as he doesn't shift too much towards the West (which he won't), Putin won't do anything risky. Incidentally, this is also why I think Russia won't do anything crazy in Armenia.