I only have reports of her giving the UK 'reasonable time'. I don't know that that means untill there is a new PM.Originally Posted by RandBlade
I only have reports of her giving the UK 'reasonable time'. I don't know that that means untill there is a new PM.
Congratulations America
Read between the lines. I think in the circumstances of the delay until there is a new PM who will lead renegotiations already being announced, with a timetable for the election of the new PM, it's pretty clear that is what she means. She's not silly enough to suggest there should be 'reasonable time' only to then be pissed off that it's not done weeks before the pre-announced timeline.
Only that in this case it's the foreign ministers calling the shots. Not consistent what you're blabbering on here about.
When the stars threw down their spears
And watered heaven with their tears:
Did he smile his work to see?
Did he who made the lamb make thee?
Paste the article title into Google.
Hope is the denial of reality
No it simply is not. The UK will invoke Article 50 when it suits the UK to do so, there is no constitutional way for anyone else to invoke it on our behalf. Merkel understands that which is why she's put down her foreign minister, who reports to her not the other way around. Her foreign minister can do jack shit about Article 50. There are enough serious issues to argue over without arguing over this one, it makes perfect sense to have negotiations with the new PM - and possibly after the new PM calls an early General Election and probably after next year's French and German elections too. Why have the negotiations during these election periods rather than after them when people can act seriously in cooler spirits than what prevails today and without electioneering nationalism.
2019 is being widely quoted here as the target date for Brexit.
There's a very good reason for not playing along with that BS namely that it isn't in the EU's best interest to prolong the harmful uncertainty.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
So what would the foreign ministers actually do? Being deeply concerned?
"Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt
They could play hardball. The only recourse would be the ECJ in Luxemburg. Where the UK would ask a court which jurisdiction it rejects to establish that it has no intention of leaving the EU.
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Being deeply concerned is about as hardball as it gets for the EU. They pretty much can't do anything, and Peter Altmaier just confirmed the German position that the UK shouldn't rush in.
This shows again what a joke Martin Schulz is. He is making demands all the time, but he doesn't have any power to actually back up his demands.
"Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt
Except that he has the Brits by the balls. The resignation of comm. Hill did only happen because he didn't want to live through the indignity of having his portfolio stripped of him this Tuesday. Putting the control over the financial sector in the hands of the Eurozone. You think they won't rule totally disregarding any British interest? For all intents and purposes the UK is no longer a member. And regardless of how kind mummy Merkel intends to be, she will not let legalistic trickery bring down the Union.
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So when do you guys believe these spineless chickenshits will trigger article 50?
What are the reasons for doing it soon?
What are the reasons for waiting?
Will there be any negotiations before article 50 is triggered?
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Schulz will do nothing other than talk.
"Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt
The reasons are that they don't have a clue of a clue and need to create some actual plans on what to do next.
When the stars threw down their spears
And watered heaven with their tears:
Did he smile his work to see?
Did he who made the lamb make thee?
I think they will trigger when the situation deteriorates.
Reasons to do it soon; dispel any hope of renegotiation. Squash hopes in other countries. Get on with business.
Reasons to wait, maybe Brexit will be trashed.
No.
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I don't think it's particularly important, but I thought you might want to get a heads-up. Number 6 status is well within grasp now. Only a half cent to go at this time €1,2158.
Congratulations America
No need since it's already been confirmed that the UK needs to actively take a step to inform the Council that it is invoking article 50. Either in writing to the European Council or in a minuted speech during a European Council meeting. That is the formality confirmed so how is Schulz going to take a step to the ECJ?
At the earliest once all the people who will be involved in negotiations are in place. Potentially after seeking a new mandate at a General Election on what kind of negotiations will take place.
The only argument to do it soon is to remove uncertainty, though there's 2 years of uncertainty anyway. There's no good argument for hasty and badly implemented negotiations.What are the reasons for doing it soon?
1: The Prime Minister has resigned, we need a new one.What are the reasons for waiting?
2: There are elections coming up in France, Germany and potentially the UK within the next year.
3: We can implement Article 50 anytime, but once invoked it takes unanimity to extend the time period if negotiations are not yet complete.
Yes, informally.Will there be any negotiations before article 50 is triggered?
No RandBlade there will be no informal talks. Not even at lower levels.
And because you are unable to understand signals let me point out two things : the EU already made clear the opinions of the UK have become irrelevant by shoving aside it's say in regulation of the financial markets. They also said it doesn't take a formal letter to establish notification as meant in article 50. I don't know if Cameron should say anything at all over the next few weeks. His successor should not speak anywhere near where people can hear him.
Soon you will learn what fun we can have if we get back to the kind of international politics you were so fond of last week.
Congratulations America
I'm a little puzzled here. They're going to postpone formal negotiations because of elections and a new PM. But for some reason that isn't seen as a problem for informal negotiations. What exactly is to be gained from informal negotiations in that case? What do you expect they'll negotiate? Sounds like a bunch of time-wasting cockbaggery. You don't need to drag it out for 2 years either. You can agree to let the UK withdraw sooner. Of course, if the UK tries to Boris Johnson the negotiations with demands on restricted movement of people and the like, negotiations are likely to drag on for longer than 2 years.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Hazir, they have said letter or European Council minuted statement. So yes not just a letter but that's what I said. A non binding referendum is not formal notice. There will be talks your denials carry as much credibility as Osborne's denials of a Plan B.
Aimless the point of the two years is its meant to be a maximum not a minimum from when the clock starts. Once an agreement is reached it can come into effect as agreed but if there is no agreement then exit happens automatically. There is no point wasting a chunk of the negotiating period at a time when the UK, French and German leadership are all uncertain.
The council has no published minutes, so that would be nonsense. The council has published conclusions. Whatever is in there goes.
Congratulations America
Yes which get signed off by all parties. If you think the UK is going to sign off a statement saying we have invoked Article 50 when we haven't then that's an odd idea.
The reason why talks before the notification will not happen (where I hold the believe that notification can't be held off once the 27 have had enough, regardless of the British desires) is because that would mean re-negotiation of the membership terms of a member of the EU by another name. The reason why the february agreement collapsed automatically with the announcement of the results of the referendum have a direct correlation with this. The EU will only talk to the UK in a capacity of them leaving the EU.
That the UK would prefer to negotiate while still being a regular member is understandable; it gives them a whisper of protection against the harshest demands that other states may have.
What people like Randblade are looking for signals that there is room for that; however, if you actually read all that leaders say there can be no doubt about that even though that some of them are willing to give the UK time to get its act (government) together and others much less so, all of them frame that in the light of the UK being out. The German FM said it rather clear when he specified that many things could be talked about; excluding the fact of Brexit itself.
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A week ago you were telling everybody that treaties are only worth something if both sides are willing to implement them. This week you totally disregard the fact that this is actually the way things work between two sides in the international arena. Besides that quick switch in principles I have to point out to you that as far as article 50 is concerned your voice on anything considering your exit is not relevant to the EU. So if the other 27 conclude what they have heard is that you intend to leave, your only recourse is the ECJ. Where you will have to let the Justices in Luxemburg decide whether or not the UK has the intention of leaving the EU.
That would be great fun for all.
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And here we have it; 1,20. Any big difference between being number 5 and 6 Rand?
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You must be smoking some weird stuff lately.
"Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt
Nope, even reports about the process to the House of Lords point out that the legalities of the process may take a backseat to the politics of the situation.You must be smoking some weird stuff lately.
Congratulations America
We shall see....
"Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt
That s my point anyway; it may all go according to rules. Untill there are attempts to use the rules for leverage.
I'd like to remind you of one tidbit I had forgotten about myself: the sunset clause in the February deal. It said that the deal with Cameron would be off the table in case there were a referendum result in favour of leaving. It looks very much like the people who thought that up were way ahead of the Brexiteers. It blocked the approach Johnson promoted before the man himself even got on board with Leave.
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I just think it's way too early to call for that. If the UK waits longer than until the new government than you can start getting impatient. This hurry is typical SPD style, trying to lecture people would they should do just for the sake of patronizing.
"Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt
So how long before Britain is #7? Before or after Brexit is complete?
Hope is the denial of reality
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