Definitely. Different standards for forum members vs. experts used to support said members' views.
Definitely. Different standards for forum members vs. experts used to support said members' views.
Hope is the denial of reality
I wonder if the candidates for the leadership of the Conservative Party realise that unlike before their words will be weighed and potentially can turn Brexit into the mother of all ugly divorces.
Congratulations America
About the Swiss problem: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ement-citizens
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-...he-eu-36708774 More useless facts. The economy is clearly doing well. Best be courageous and ignore them. Trust Bolton.
Hope is the denial of reality
"We expect this uncertainty to generate an investment-led recession as recent falls in business investment intensify," economists from Goldman Sachs wrote last week. "While assuming quite a resilient consumer, we expect weakening business investment to tip the UK into recession around the turn of the year."Originally Posted by Loki
Pretty much as I feared, falling investment, steady contraction of the economy, leading to a recession.
It's 8 years since the last recession, we were due one anyway. If it happens I hope it's brief and we swiftly come through the other side better and stronger.
Dude, that's down right religious
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
How? The economic cycle runs on an average of 8-12 years. The last one started in 2008 if the next one does start in 2017 (I still hope we can avoid it) then it will be nine years between recessions which is standard operating procedure.
As for the hope that any recession is brief, call that religious if you want, I'd call it common sense.
Still no guarantee there'll be a recession, it is just speculation at the moment.
The above isn't common sense, it is closer to being nonsensical or at best a non-answer similar to pseudo-explanations based on the concept of God's plan being ineffable.
If you believe in the concept of the business cycle--to the point of believing that recessions occur with regularity, that we're due for a recession based on the time since the last recession and that that would be SOP--then your final sentence does not make sense. From the perspective of someone who believes in an actual business cycle, a coming recession is not only more-or-less guaranteed (for all practical purposes) but also nigh.
If you believe that a major recession may or may not occur anyway sometime between now and 2020, with no indication as to the likelihood of such an event occurring, based on your notions about the business cycle, then that is a meaningless forecast of little relevance to this discussion.
Even if we take your post at face value and accept, for the sake of argument, that there is such a thing as a real business cycle and that it's meaningful to discuss statistics about its behavior, even then you have to take some sort of position on the referendum's impact--or lack thereof--on that cycle.
Will the outcome of the referendum have any impact on the business cycle or won't it?
Will the result of that impact be positive, negative or more-or-less neutral compared to what the situation would have been like had there not been a referendum with Brexit as its outcome?
Will a recession occur sooner, later or when it would have been "expected" to occur anyway?
Will that recession be more or less severe or no different from a recession without Brexit?
Will it be longer, shorter or just as long as it would have been without a Brexit?
Now I understand that you hope that there won't be a recession now and of course you hope that, if one does occur, it will be brief and not severe and that you'll somehow come out of stronger and better than you would have been otherwise. That's a given, everyone shares that same hope. It's like saying, "If there's another world war--and I hope there isn't one--I hope that it's short and almost no-one dies and that the world is a better place afterwards." What you hope isn't as interesting for the purposes of a discussion as what you think or expect will--or won't--occur based on what we know right now.
As for the business cycle, although the term continues to be used as a convenient shorthand, "cycle" is a misnomer and it's more appropriate to speak of economic fluctuations. Granted those may to a significant extent be driven by eg. a real credit "cycle", but explanations for regularity and periodicity in either should not be expected to incorporate a priori the possible impact of a once-in-a-generation referendum causing a major economy to leave the world's largest economic bloc.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Point of order, the EU is not the world's largest economic bloc. Certainly the EU27 sans UK is not. In nominal terms USA is largest with the EU second, and by PPP the EU27 is considerably behind both the USA and China. As I've said party of my desire for leaving is to negotiate a new trade deal not just with the EU27 but with the bigger and faster-growing markets of the USA and China and others too.
Certainly the EU (especially including us) used to be bigger than the USA though a decade of decline and ongoing Eurosclerosis means it no longer is, even if that myth is still propagated.
Will the outcome of the referendum have any impact on the business cycle or won't it?
Probably yes a transitionary recession caused by upheaval is more likely.
Will the result of that impact be positive, negative or more-or-less neutral compared to what the situation would have been like had there not been a referendum with Brexit as its outcome?
Short term negative.
Will a recession occur sooner, later or when it would have been "expected" to occur anyway?
Sooner.
Will that recession be more or less severe or no different from a recession without Brexit?
More.
Will it be longer, shorter or just as long as it would have been without a Brexit?
Don't know.
You're ignoring the obvious fact that you're not going to get a new trade deal with the US any time soon.
Incidentally, the pound is now at a 35-year low, and the Bank of England is pumping 150 billion pounds (whatever that's worth in monopoly money) into the economy.
Hope is the denial of reality
Does only soon matter? I voted for our long term best interests. Will we in the long term get a trade deal with the US that US Presidential candidates and Leader of the House etc have said should now be possible?
Also the US is only one of the many nations we can now make a deal with. One nation worth more than the entire EU27 combined of course.
Bank of England doing its job. Good, glad we kept it and are not relying on the sclerotic ECB.
It would be extremely valuable for any country to have a trade deal with the USA. However, to get a good deal having a deal with you has to be extremely valuable for the USA as well. If you're offering not quite so much, in the end you may feel hoodwinked when the deal is ratified. Example; China - Switzerland.
As for the effectiveness of the actions by the BoE; given that the last serious weapons have been used a long time ago it's somewhat difficult to see if the economy is really going to be fired up by yet another wad of cash.
Congratulations America
I don't think the intention is to fire-up the economy, I think it is to prevent it drying up.
It is inevitable that the costs of leaving the EU/uncertainty are more immediate while the bonus of self-governance and free trade are more long term. It is short-term cost versus long-term opportunity.
If the short-term cost can be minimised then that just leaves the long-term opportunities.
The US doesn't need the UK. The UK, however, needs access to some kind of market.
If you think that you'll get any kind of favourable deal out of this, you're deluded. Also, how fast exactly do you think such trade deals are enacted? Talks for something like that usually take an amount of time measured in years. And not a number you can usually count on one hand either.
And "the bonus of free trade"? You morons just turned your backs on "free trade". What exactly makes you think that the US won't want some kind of strong assurance that you won't break off a trade deal when you feel uncomfortable with it once again?
When the stars threw down their spears
And watered heaven with their tears:
Did he smile his work to see?
Did he who made the lamb make thee?
... and the long-term costs...
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Don't bother him with such real-life consequences. He'd rather be high than sane.
When the stars threw down their spears
And watered heaven with their tears:
Did he smile his work to see?
Did he who made the lamb make thee?
Well, we can't exclude the possibility that they pull this off. However, trying to copy Singapore may be a trifle difficult if you are not just London City.
Congratulations America
Lonxit?
When the stars threw down their spears
And watered heaven with their tears:
Did he smile his work to see?
Did he who made the lamb make thee?
A little too black and white for my taste. You know you don't need a single market for trade. How do you think those iPhones and Galaxy S are getting to your Media Markt and Saturn?
Singapore is much larger than the City of London. Maybe you mean Greater London, that would be comparable in size.
"Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt
Right. So, all this talking about "Access to markets" is unneccessary. Because they already have access to markets.
Remind me again why there's a crisis then if trade deals are such a small deal like you try to make it out to be?
The fun part: You're talking about things being "too black and white". And then promptly commit the same sin by essentially stating that all market access is equal and there are no such things as tariffs and import taxes. Bravo!
When the stars threw down their spears
And watered heaven with their tears:
Did he smile his work to see?
Did he who made the lamb make thee?
Where did I said that
You can't just simple rise your import taxes the way you want. You have to obey WTO rules while doing so. And opposite to China you will have to apply the tariff rules for free market economy.
"Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt
So what? Just because it doesn't need it doesn't mean they won't want it. We are a well off, comparably cultured nation with a large economy. There is opportunity for both sides. You may be used to turning your nose up at opportunities that are not geographically proximate but it doesn't mean everyone has to.
I'm reasonably confident we could have a number of deals within a decade from now and that is being conservative. Life doesn't end tomorrow.If you think that you'll get any kind of favourable deal out of this, you're deluded. Also, how fast exactly do you think such trade deals are enacted? Talks for something like that usually take an amount of time measured in years. And not a number you can usually count on one hand either.
No you moron we turned our back on a political union. You gleefully pointed out to me that the EU is not just a trade agreement days before the vote to which I rolled my eyes and thought yes and that's what's wrong with it. So don't try and change your story now and say it's just a trade agreement.And "the bonus of free trade"? You morons just turned your backs on "free trade". What exactly makes you think that the US won't want some kind of strong assurance that you won't break off a trade deal when you feel uncomfortable with it once again?
At this point it's prudent to ask what Randblade would take as evidence that Brexit was a poor decision.
Like, what hypothetical event or chain of events would convince him that it was an error?
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
I probably should just have said London. But the point is not the difference in size between the two cities, but the fact that one of them is dragged down by a country well left behind in economic terms, where the other isn't.
You could say that all the north, wales and the south west need is a good dose of undiluted capitalism to get them back in shape. And I might even agree with you, but I don't know if the people of those regions have the stomach for it. They might punish a government going that way at the ballot box.
Congratulations America
About five years hindsight and we have no trade deal with the EU, no trade deal with anyone else, an economy that's depressed and unemployment like that in the Eurozone.
Right now nothing had happened yet.
Scottish independence would give the reality jolt that part of Northern Britain needs. They'd have to take responsibility for themselves rather than blame every ill on London.
At this point probably nothing. The reality is that the fact that there is no answer to what the UK will look like in 10 years from now, but that models show that it's not likely that it will be much better off should have been enough reason not to risk it. We're not talking about putting some extra money in stocks, it's betting the entire future of the nation.
Congratulations America
That may be so, but in elections they are also voters. So a government could be elected which is not all about people standing on their own feet and a lot more about re-distribution. Not every leader is Maggie Thatcher.
Congratulations America
I believe I can help you out here...
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
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