Let's embrace the world: Why I'm voting Leave

[earthJoker]

German papers, not German politicians.

[Timbuk2]

“An Englishman, a Scotsman and an Irishman walk into a bar … The Englishman wanted to go, so they all had to leave.”

An Englishman, an Irishman and a Scotsman walk into a bar, to watch Wales play in the Euro 2016 Quarter finals.

[Loki]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36703570 In a finding that will surprise no one, the main predictor of voting Leave wasn't income or class, but rather education (or lack thereof). And race, but that goes without saying.

[Aimless]

Leave begins to deliver on its promise of increasing support for science by doing something so dumb that political scientists and sociologists will be able to make their living off of studying it for a couple of decades

[Loki]

UK is terrible at quantitative political science. So no, this will mainly benefit American ones.

[Flixy]

As I understand it the reason that swiss research is well funded by the EU is because currently they use the fund for non-EU research partnered with EU universities - now that the UK will enter that fund as well, you can expect that to become more competitive.

[Loki]

The Swiss also got a lot of really good EU and US scientists due to Schengen. Now that they're out, they're losing their top scientists rapidly.

[Aimless]

UK is terrible at quantitative political science. So no, this will mainly benefit American ones.

That's all right, they're embracing the world instead of just focusing on one small corner of it

As I understand it the reason that swiss research is well funded by the EU is because currently they use the fund for non-EU research partnered with EU universities - now that the UK will enter that fund as well, you can expect that to become more competitive.

Hmmm. Wonder if that will mostly be to Switzerland's detriment.



As for the BBC's findings, they really are interesting albeit unsurprising. Wondering if they'll find the same trends in other multicultural cities like Leicester.

[Loki]

We'd know that if Britain wasn't terrible at quantitative political science. Virtually no individual-level polling data in the UK.

[earthJoker]

As I understand it the reason that swiss research is well funded by the EU is because currently they use the fund for non-EU research partnered with EU universities - now that the UK will enter that fund as well, you can expect that to become more competitive.

Might be true, but than again, we spend billions in science directly (without the detour over the EU).

The Swiss also got a lot of really good EU and US scientists due to Schengen. Now that they're out, they're losing their top scientists rapidly.

Why would we lose US scientists because of Schengen? Schengen has nothing to do with science. And the US isn't part of Schengen, neither is the UK. What you mean is Horizon 2020, but than again, why should we lose scientists over that. It's not like the ETH or CERN is suddenly moving away from Switzerland. Good scientists will still be able to come over here to make their PhD.

[Loki]

Because you're getting some of the best US Ph.D. graduates, people who like travelling around Europe and who like being around the top minds in Europe. From what I read, retaining those people has already become more difficult.

[earthJoker]

You can still travel around freely in Europe from here. I just made holidays in Italy and forgot my ID. BTW you could also travel around Europe before Schengen.
I want to see those numbers. So far the ratings for our Universities went up every year. You shouldn't underestimate the importance of quality of live. Top minds usually like to live in clean, stable, and secure places.

Also, so far Switzerland hasn't been fully kicked out of Horizon 2020.

If the EU kicks Switzerland and UK out of the network, I assume that it will be harder for us to get top minds, not because they don't want to come to Switzerland any more, but because they don't want to come to Europe at all.

[Hazir]

You know that sounds a bit silly don't you? People won't be coming to Europe if Switzerland is out? I can imagine a whole slew of reasons why Europe is less attractive than some other places people could go, but kicking out Switzerland probably wouldn't make much of a difference. People like access to places like London, Paris, Madrid, Barcelona etc. The first person who has Zurich or Geneva at the top of their list of places to be I still have to come accross. And If there are such people there's always Bavaria or Annecy.

Also, the EU doesn't kick out anybody, it's Switzerland that created two incompatible obligations.

P.S. traveling without your ID to Italy isn't without risk; you could get fined for that.

[earthJoker]

Are you able to read? I said Switzerland AND the UK. Munich has a good university but it can't reach the ETH.

I didn't forgot my ID on purpose!

[Flixy]

Might be true, but than again, we spend billions in science directly (without the detour over the EU).

Oh yeah, you'll still be well off. I meant it more to say that just because Switzerland still gets a lot of EU research funding that doesn't mean UK can keep theirs, because it's from different funds.

I am curious how Switzerland will affect my company, because we're partly based in Zürich.

[Loki]

You can still travel around freely in Europe from here. I just made holidays in Italy and forgot my ID. BTW you could also travel around Europe before Schengen.
I want to see those numbers. So far the ratings for our Universities went up every year. You shouldn't underestimate the importance of quality of live. Top minds usually like to live in clean, stable, and secure places.

Also, so far Switzerland hasn't been fully kicked out of Horizon 2020.

If the EU kicks Switzerland and UK out of the network, I assume that it will be harder for us to get top minds, not because they don't want to come to Switzerland any more, but because they don't want to come to Europe at all.

You expect this to already be reflected in rankings, which are based heavily on long-term reputations? You won't see an effect there for a decade. The most immediate impact is in retention figures and the quality of new hires.

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/future-i...cerns/42132304

[Hazir]

Are you able to read? I said Switzerland AND the UK. Munich has a good university but it can't reach the ETH.

I didn't forgot my ID on purpose!

Since the British people voted to exit the EU, I doubt my reading skills were the problem with your post. There is no question of kicking anybody out, there is a question of them being able to negotiate terms to re-join EU programs.

[earthJoker]

Oh yeah, you'll still be well off. I meant it more to say that just because Switzerland still gets a lot of EU research funding that doesn't mean UK can keep theirs, because it's from different funds.

The SNF already guaranteed to take over any founding that gets reduced or canceled by the EU. The founding isn't the problem, cooperation is.

You expect this to already be reflected in rankings, which are based heavily on long-term reputations? You won't see an effect there for a decade. The most immediate impact is in retention figures and the quality of new hires.

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/future-i...cerns/42132304

The article doesn't say that we cannot attract top scientist anymore. It clearly says the problem are the coordinated EU science projects. Not that I like that, but it isn't the same.

Since the British people voted to exit the EU, I doubt my reading skills were the problem with your post. There is no question of kicking anybody out, there is a question of them being able to negotiate terms to re-join EU programs.

Let's agree on "will not let the UK and Switzerland participate in Horizon and Erasmus anymore", is that OK with you?

[RandBlade]

Business owner of an export-based company reports to the BBC about a new wave of inquiries following the Brexit vote and fall in the pound: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36676558

It's almost as if a falling currency could boost exporters, helping spur economic growth and improving a current account deficit.
It's almost as if there's a world to export to outside of our continent.

Who could have predicted that?

[Loki]

Love your predictable response. You ignore aggregate data and focus on a single cherry-picked case. You're becoming a parody of yourself.

[RandBlade]

I've asked for aggregate data from yourself for ages and you've refused to provide anything other than a fall in sterling. Provide some of this "overwhelming evidence" that you've apparently seen.

[Loki]

A sudden, massive fall in business confidence isn't evidence. Your one outlier case is evidence, however. Right.

[Aimless]

Business owner of an export-based company reports to the BBC about a new wave of inquiries following the Brexit vote and fall in the pound: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36676558

It's almost as if a falling currency could boost exporters, helping spur economic growth and improving a current account deficit.
It's almost as if there's a world to export to outside of our continent.

Who could have predicted that?

Are you sure this is the argument you want to make?

The pound dropping is expected to take some of the sting off of the impact of Brexit for exporters, sure.

However, as you yourself have pointed out, only a small percentage of UK businesses export to the EU. That small percentage constitutes about 80% of all small-to-medium UK businesses that export period.

You currently have access to the single market. If you lose or risk losing access to that market in the future, that will have a negative impact on your exports.

British exports tend to be high value and relatively insensitive to minor price-changes brought on by changes in currency value. The last time the pound experienced a significant drop, there was no major positive impact on export volume. This may be different in the case of a more sustained pressure on the pound but in that case the boost in exports will be countered by barriers to trade in the form of tariffs, restrictions, paperwork etc as well as be sensitive to negative changes in the global economy.

While an increase in trade brought about by the lower value of the pound can perhaps help reduce your current account deficit, that increase in trade will have to be pretty huge--which is unlikely--and also sustained--which is uncertain. Exporters may perhaps see their profit margins grow for a short while, and consumer-driven imports may decline, but that's not necessarily good for your country.

You can manage your current account deficit partly thanks to your financial account surplus. If that surplus were to be reduced--not an unlikely consequence of the threat of Brexit--the consequences may not be offset quickly or completely enough by any increase in exports you might see from your falling currency. Ordinary people and small-to-medium businesses would feel the pain most keenly.

The one major positive outcome we might expect or hope for is for your economy to become more balanced and less reliant on financial services. But that's kinda like saying that one positive effect of becoming severely ill or being locked up in a north-korean prison-camp is that you might lose some body-fat.

Mate, it's good to have a positive outlook, but optimism and positivity should be tempered by at least a small dose of realism.

[Hazir]

<snip.
Let's agree on "will not let the UK and Switzerland participate in Horizon and Erasmus anymore", is that OK with you?

That could happen. It depends on the actions of either of those two more than on a willingness of the EU to let them participate. However, as you know the EU doesn't do deals for parts of the EU. The reason for termination of your participation in Erasmus wasn't that we didn't want you in Erasmus but that we don't do deals with countries that differentiate between the citizens of EU memberstates. If Switzerland stops denying Croatians equal treatment, then I am certain you participation in any EU program is welcomed.

[Hazir]

Business owner of an export-based company reports to the BBC about a new wave of inquiries following the Brexit vote and fall in the pound: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36676558

It's almost as if a falling currency could boost exporters, helping spur economic growth and improving a current account deficit.
It's almost as if there's a world to export to outside of our continent.

Who could have predicted that?

You must be joking right? One producer of an outlandish transport mode that just happens to rely on purely local labour and parts is your example for how wonderful things are if your currency crashes? For most exporters their products are way more complex in terms of cost factors so they'll hardly benefit from a lower currency at all. For all you know these people may not sell a single hovercraft in the UK any longer because they aren't energy efficient enough, with gas prices going through the roof and all.

Also, inquiries are hardly sales.

[RandBlade]

It's not proof no, never said it was. It's no more and no less than anecdotal evidence of an opportunity available.

[Hazir]

It's not proof no, never said it was. It's no more and no less than anecdotal evidence of an opportunity available.

As it happens, I have spent a good deal of time in a country which had an ever declining pound, and it was a source of joy to nobody who wasn't already a millionaire in dollar terms.

[RandBlade]

I don't want an ever-declining pound. I am OK with a one-off declined pound that helps us through the adjustment of our Brexit transition and will likely then appreciate back up once the uncertainty has been removed.

[Hazir]

I don't want an ever-declining pound. I am OK with a one-off declined pound that helps us through the adjustment of our Brexit transition and will likely then appreciate back up once the uncertainty has been removed.

You realise you're then just wishing for another source of insecurity with no obvious benefits?

[RandBlade]

Freely floating exchange rates are never secure, a one-off adjustment (so long as it doesn't lead to permanent decline) like one-off inflation is not always a bad thing.