So when all the black people in these stories say this is typical, your response is what? Nah?
So when all the black people in these stories say this is typical, your response is what? Nah?
Hope is the denial of reality
RB, what is your definition of typical? I generally interpret it as meaning something like "common enough to not be surprising".
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
No it am sure it is real and happening. I am also sure it is awful. I am also sure it shouldn't happen.Originally Posted by Loki
Am I sure it is "typical" though? No. Something can be a horrendous problem that needs fixing while still being atypical.
I do not. I would define typical as representative or standard.
Eg as a board game player I know the most typical dice roll for a 2d6 is the number 7. While there are 11 possible numbers that can be rolled, the most common five (5-9) make up two thirds of the probability of being rolled despise making up less than half the possible outcomes. They are the most typical results of rolling the dice.
However after a game is completed you don't remember the incidents where you rolled a 7 as that is forgotten about. If however you rolled Snake Eyes (2) then you remember it. If you roll snake eyes four times in a game you curse those four incidents you were very unlucky.
Except that you weren't overall unlucky. Because if you rolled 2d6 128 times in the course of the game then snake eyes should be rolled on average precisely 4 times. It's not typical but it happened repeatedly. If each time it happens it has a critical and catastrophic impact then you remember those incidents. It's called selective perception.
So when a state legislator says that he was stopped at least 7 times by the police this year, you assume he's making it up? Ditto for all the cops and doctors who say the same?
Hope is the denial of reality
I'm not sure niggling over what does and does not, linguistically, qualify as typical is very constructive.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
And here ladies and gentlemen is selection bias in action.
Since that state legislator is being talked about he is presumably on the far side of the bell curve for stops for someone of his ethnicity in his position. Otherwise it wouldn't be news.
Now for that individual how many times has the legislator interacted (or NOT interacted) with passing officers in the past year. A thousand times? Ten thousand times? A hundred thousand times? Presumably there are at least a few potential interactions every day that simply don't happen so that would be manu thousands of potential interactions a year.
Even if for this individual stops represent 0.7% or less of possible interactions, even if that 0.7% is to the more extreme side of the bell curve, it is noticeable so you ignore the millions of non incidents nationally and concentrate on 7 stops. Doesn't mean 7 stops are representative or typical though. It's probably far less common than even quadruple snake eyes.
Perhaps not though nothing we do here is very constructive and niggling is a past time.
On a more serious basis though niggling over things like this can be the difference between viewing this as a proportion of bad apples that need to be removed promptly (like I think) or that this is an endemic and global culture (like he thinks). I think some bad apples is bad enough and should be taken seriously, I don't see a need to pretend it is completely representative.
I don't know how many cops you think there are available to stop people but I guarantee you that it's not as many as you seem to think.
Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"
No, it's newsworthy because if it happens to a legislator, it's certainly much worse for a non-legislator.
Hope is the denial of reality
The topic of typicality was in the context of the black man being harassed and then subjected to unnecessary and excessive violence. When discussing these things the word "typical" can have at least two loosely defined meanings but typically they center around things that are interesting, such as interactions, rather than around things that aren't interesting, such as being in the same country or breathing the same air.
As for the legislator, he is indeed somewhere in the far end of the bell curve. Not because he's a black man who keeps getting stopped by cops but because he's a black man who's a legislator and a Republican to boot.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Lewk, non-white males are statistically more likely to be racially profiled....which leads to more arrests, and time in jail -- either waiting for a lawyer, or because they can't make bail -- and eventually more prosecutions. (You do know that Police Depts. and District Attorneys are better funded than Public Defenders, right?) The real "correlation" is poverty + crappy schools + unemployment, which is also statistically more likely in non-white areas. (And you do know that the largest group using gov't subsidies are poor rural white folk, right?)
No, that's what reading Breitbart and Fox "news" gets you.There is something very wrong with the culture of our inner cities. "Snitches get stitches" and "Pigs in a blanket, fry 'em like bacon" is pretty sick. This is what liberalism gives us. Single parent households, deadbeat dads, culture that glorifies gang violence, drug use and criminal activity. When you pound it into people's head that the world is 100% racist and that you'll never be able to make it through hard work because the deck is stacked. This is toxic and it creates a culture where crime flourishes. Police aren't stupid they realize where the crime is happening and who is doing it and then absolutely influences them. We get to the point where shit like this is a thing. <snip>And no, Police aren't stupid. When people are legally armed, and Police are expected to protect and serve the citizenry, yet ALSO act as a first layer of national defense against terrorism (profiling that Muslim-looking guy with a foreign accent?) their mission is undoubtedly complicated, and probably undermined.
Legalizing drugs would get rid of the gang/cartel violence and criminality, but where's your prescription for those single-parent households and deadbeat dads? Body cameras on all police would be great, unless or until they turn them off (or claim they fall off), but how long should that data be stored, and who pays for it?Now can things be improved upon? Absolutely.
1. Legalize drugs
2. Harsher penalties for violent offenders
3. 100% body cameras
4. When actual incidents of racism (and not just profiling) occur do something about it. #3 will help with this quite a bit.
And more importantly.....Police brutality should be prosecuted just as forcefully as racism, and those cops should spend time in prison. But how often does that happen?
Police shot dead in Baton Rouge:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-36820782
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/17/us....html?adkey=bn
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Apparently the gunman has been shot: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2...shot/87218884/
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
What you're missing is that those aren't mutually exclusive options. It's the global culture of the police that allows those 'few bad apples' to survive and thrive.
It's the same as the paedophile scandal in the Catholic church. Obviously, most priests (like, 99.9%) weren't child molesters but that was hardly the point: it was the fact that the church acted to excuse and cover up the actions of a tiny number paedophile priests which allowed their abuse to continue and in all probability encouraged more paedophiles to enter the priesthood when it was discovered in paedophile circles that the church was an environment that would let them pursue their activities with impunity which made the church culpable.
Likewise, most cops in the US aren't in the job to hassle black people and shoot them dead on light pretexts but when you have a culture where cops cover up for one another's actions and which views blacks as a threat/potentially criminal by default then the wider culture of the police force bares responsibility for creating an environment where bad apple cops feel they can indulge in that behaviour with impunity.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
When a vast majority of black people in certain neighborhoods get harassed by the police on a regular basis, it must be some really freaking busy "handful of bad apples" doing all all the harassing.
Hope is the denial of reality
Pretty awful case. This was a premeditated act directly aimed at police. While I feel the shooter is 100% responsible for his actions I wonder if the whole BLM media focus had never been a thing if he would have made the same decision.
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/07/18...-shooting.html
"Police believe Long, who was wearing body armor during his attack, had been in Baton Rouge for six days and knew that cops often frequented the gas station and car wash where the shooting unfolded, sources said. One of the officers shot was vacuuming his car at the time.
The FBI was running down Long's social media activity and phone records to flag people he may have contacted and why he targeted Baton Rouge.
Long was associated with the Nation of Islam, the militant Muslim group led by Louis Farrakhan, according to a report by The Daily Caller. That report cited YouTube videos in which a person believed to be Long called for violence against white America, and revenge for the death of Alton Sterling, a black man killed July 5 while being arrested by Baton Rouge police."
On what grounds do you make that claim, Lewk? Long explicitly mocked the BLM movement, saying that protests are for "women". He was also a member of the mostly white "sovereign citizen" movement, but I guess blaming white people for crime is a step too far. If you're going to be looking for underlying causes, perhaps you can acknowledge the fact that most black people are afraid of the police and therefore do not think their presence in their neighborhoods to be legitimate?
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2014/06/09...remacists.html
Interesting how no one cared when white supremacists killed 2 cops. Is it only bad as long as black folk are doing it?
Last edited by Loki; 07-18-2016 at 03:35 PM.
Hope is the denial of reality
Erm, I cared then, it certainly made national headlines, and I am pretty sure there was a thread about it here.
I don't recall the same level of hysteria and attempting to associate the killers with any wider movement, but ok.
Hope is the denial of reality
What wider movement? When was the last time there were widespread peaceful demonstrations, riots, and/or other mass organizing by the Klan?
Actually, white supremacist groups hold rallies all the time. They're just not very big and don't get much media coverage. White supremacist groups are also responsible for a vast majority of terrorist violence in this country, though that doesn't get much coverage either (they're not Muslim!).
Hope is the denial of reality
I think the key word there was widespread.
I bet you if the media did have coverage over white supremacist rallies liberals would complain about giving racists air time...
Probably recency bias more than anything else. How far separate were the Dallas and Baton Rogue ambushes?
Again these claims that people are afraid of the police. Obviously criminals are afraid of police and others may have anxiety around them, sure. However far more people are shot by non-police than by police. Far more people are robbed by non-police than by police. Police keep people safe and even poor communities realize it. However you have an arrest warrant? Don't have auto insurance but are driving? Yeah you're going to be more worried about the police, the average citizen who has done nothing wrong is many orders of magnitude more likely to be harmed by a criminal in a poor neighborhood than by the police.
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s...rsons-arrested
Arrest rate is under 4%. And you know what? Many of those arrests are actually legitimate.
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s...property-crime
Property crime rate is just under 3%. If you are a citizen in America you have about a 3% chance per year to have been robbed or had property destroyed non-violently. That's crazy, that's only crime reported of course and its just ONE time of crime. It doesn't count things like armed robbery, murder, assault, battery, rape, harassment, manslaughter, etc.
Crime is a FAR bigger threat than the police are. Are some police bad apples? Sure. Are some police targeting people who are more likely to have done crimes? Yeah, very likely and that honestly isn't a huge deal. Hey guess what - you and me are both guys making us far more likely to be arrested than women. But you don't see me crying about gender bias among the police force. Do you go to the poor side of town? Do you see the vandalism? Do you see bars on windows? Signs that cash registers don't have more than X dollars at fast food places? Yeah, clearly worried about cops...
Black people are far more likely to be stopped and frisked for no justifiable reason. Black people are more likely to be arrested for no justifiable reason. Black people are more likely by far to be arrested for petty offenses (see for example millions arrested for violating curfew laws). When arrested, black people are more likely to be subjected to unjustified force. The consequences of an arrest--even an unjustified one where charges aren't pressed--are also more severe for people who are economically disadvantaged, a group in which black people are over-represented.
When referencing UCR you should keep in mind that the data there is not representative. It relies on voluntary participation and is woefully incomplete.
As for the benefits of policing, there is, afaik, little persuasive evidence to show that police do an amazing job of preventing or even solving serious crimes in black neighbourhoods. When it comes to serious crimes, black neighbourhoods seem to be underserved by the police.
This isn't as relevant as you seem to believe. The targeting of black people by police is frequently both disproportionate (when you control for demographics, actual crime rates etc) and unjustified. In the NYC case it was found, unsurprisingly, that black people were far more likely to be stopped and frisked but also far less likely to be guilty of anything and police were far less likely to be able to give a reasonable justification for a search when it came to black people.Crime is a FAR bigger threat than the police are. Are some police bad apples? Sure. Are some police targeting people who are more likely to have done crimes? Yeah, very likely and that honestly isn't a huge deal. Hey guess what - you and me are both guys making us far more likely to be arrested than women. But you don't see me crying about gender bias among the police force.
To borrow your analogy, it would be like cops stopping you over and over and over again when you're out and about, in order to take swabs and check to see if you have a mole on your left testicle that may or may not match a witness's description from a current or future, just because you're a man and thus far more likely to have raped someone. And occasionally they'll arrest you just in case or on some flimsy pretext causing you to lose time and money, tarnish your record and, if you're reallyblackunlucky, die a violent and unnecessary death. It'd be a pretty huge deal. There's nothing understandable or justifiable about it.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Are we moving from arrests to just being approached by officers? That's moving the goal posts. I also don't think people are being stopped THAT often. You can barely see in windows in a lot of cars, don't see how you think police suddenly have 'black detection' going on and only know which cars to pull over.
I actually like the analogy of male/female, in fact we should demand justice for our uniformly sexists policies. Men are 15 times more likely to be in prison!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...25_onwards.png
FIFTEEN TIMES! Where are the riots? Where are the protests? And don't you dare point out the fact that men actually commit more crimes than women because that would be sexist.
Honestly its a no win situation. If someone indicates police officers go after people more likely to be guilty of a crime (racial profiling based on conviction of crimes) liberals come back with the only reason their conviction of crime numbers are higher is because they are the people police are targeting. I can't think of a possible set of data that would convince you because the argument is so circular.
There are ways to solve our crime problem. Decriminalize shit that shouldn't be against he law (drugs, prostitution, gambling, other morality laws) and come down HARD on other types of crime. So simple, so effective and yet both parties won't fucking do it. Republicans still oppose common sense legalization of drugs and Democrats refuse to believe in holding criminals responsible for their actions or common sense realities such as deterrence. Frustrating.
No-one moved anything. I'm filling out your picture. Stops, searches, threats, use of force, arrests and deaths in custody. You name it, black Americans have a disproportionately high risk of being subjected to it without adequate justification.
By your reasoning every single man alive should be on a DNA registry as well as being regularly investigated for possible rapey behaviour--and all other forms of criminal shenanigans--and of course every real or suspected Muslim in the US should be on a database and under close surveillance. Every white person with a gun should be required to go to regular psych evals or just banned from owning guns. Of course, your reasoning is, in a word, stupid. Stupid at best, horrifying at worst. You don't investigate people based on naïve statistical analyses. Being a black guy shouldn't constitute probable cause in and of itself. The vast majority of black people in the US are about as law-abiding as the vast majority of white people.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Again I don't think the average black person gets randomly stopped by police all the time. In fact I'm willing to bet most middle class and upper class blacks get stopped a lot less than poor whites. Neighborhoods aren't targeted for police presence because they are black, they are targeted because they are high crime neighborhoods. Heck DC is a pretty bad city for crime after all so the example of a congressman getting pulled over frequently isn't that out of line.
I'm a fan of the 4th amendment - if police are abusing probable cause for *anybody* I think it should be put a stop to it. However let's not be stupid about these things if you are looking to curb crime let the police do their job and what is effective. I'm not suggesting we do something ineffective but if it is effective continue doing it. These decisions should be made by local precincts and not by Washington. I expect policing to be difference in Scottsdale than it is in Detroit - do you?
http://www.dailywire.com/news/7264/5...-aaron-bandler
"1. Cops killed nearly twice as many whites as blacks in 2015. According to data compiled by The Washington Post, 50 percent of the victims of fatal police shootings were white, while 26 percent were black. The majority of these victims had a gun or "were armed or otherwise threatening the officer with potentially lethal force," according to Mac Donald in a speech at Hillsdale College.
Some may argue that these statistics are evidence of racist treatment toward blacks, since whites consist of 62 percent of the population and blacks make up 13 percent of the population. But as Mac Donald writes in The Wall Street Journal, 2009 statistics from the Bureau of Justice Statistics reveal that blacks were charged with 62 percent of robberies, 57 percent of murders and 45 percent of assaults in the 75 biggest counties in the country, despite only comprising roughly 15 percent of the population in these counties.
"Such a concentration of criminal violence in minority communities means that officers will be disproportionately confronting armed and often resisting suspects in those communities, raising officers’ own risk of using lethal force," writes MacDonald.
MacDonald also pointed out in her Hillsdale speech that blacks "commit 75 percent of all shootings, 70 percent of all robberies, and 66 percent of all violent crime" in New York City, even though they consist of 23 percent of the city's population.
"The black violent crime rate would actually predict that more than 26 percent of police victims would be black," MacDonald said. "Officer use of force will occur where the police interact most often with violent criminals, armed suspects, and those resisting arrest, and that is in black neighborhoods.""
And:
"5. Blacks are more likely to kill cops than be killed by cops. This is according to FBI data, which also found that 40 percent of cop killers are black. According to Mac Donald, the police officer is 18.5 times more likely to be killed by a black than a cop killing an unarmed black person.
Despite the facts, the anti-police rhetoric of Black Lives Matter and their leftist sympathizers have resulted in what Mac Donald calls the "Ferguson Effect," as murders have spiked by 17 percent among the 50 biggest cities in the U.S. as a result of cops being more reluctant to police neighborhoods out of fear of being labeled as racists. Additionally, there have been over twice as many cops victimized by fatal shootings in the first three months of 2016.
Anti-police rhetoric has deadly consequences."
Hope is the denial of reality
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