Schhh, don't burden TrumpBlade with factsOriginally Posted by Hazir
Schhh, don't burden TrumpBlade with facts
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
It's neither here nor there.
Except that the referendum is not binding in any legal sense. Notification would have been legally binding. As much as we like to think that it's political suicide to simply declare 'Brexit will not happen', constitutionally and legally doing just that is still entirely possible. Once notification is given that possibility goes away, not one second earlier.
People all over are working hard to either delay or stop Brexit, or to make it such a soft Brexit that it won't really matter but for the reduced power of Westminster. They do so because they can't imagine the British government actually going to push the whole applecart over the cliff because they didn't like the colour of a single apple. The fear they may succeed fires up the radical Brexiteers who want notification now.
Congratulations America
The referendum is binding in every real sense. The idea that the British public doesn't think we are leaving the EU is one for the fairies. Hell I'd expect there are more idiots that think we have already left than there are people who seriously believe we won't, a few headbangers trying to postpone the inevitable is neither here nor there. We've just moved from headbangers being the extremists on one side of the fence to the other.
The referendum is not binding in the only way that really matters; the legal way. That means the results can be undone by parliament, by general elections or simply by the government telling that they are not going to follow the advise of 17 million voters. As the 'British Public' is not making the decisions that matter to the likes of Nissan, Goldman Sachs they do their bloody best to impress on the government that Brexit is so irresponsible that they will not suffer it. They are not dim enough not to realise that by reacting as if Brexit already has come, they give away their most important bargaining tool. Once they have reached the state that they can no longer stop Brexit because it has already started, then they no longer will have an interest in acting as if it may still not happen.
Short version; Nissan can only put maximal pressure on your government about Brexit as long as it threatens to pull out of Sunderland. Once they pull out, they loose leverage and a chance for their better alternatives to come out of this mess.
Congratulations America
This from the guy who likes to insist on his parliamentary supremacy when it comes to binding treaties. Hazir has already acknowledged that deciding to not follow the referendum would be political suicide, but Parliament still has the power to do so.
Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"
You're crazy if you think that its not happening and that they don't realise its happening. The only question is what form of Brexit we have, which would still be a question post-A50 too.
Absolutely companies are going to threaten to pull out, Nissan are the boy who cried wolf as far as that's concerned. Afterall they said they'd pull out if we didn't join the Euro too.
Did you miss my phrase "in every real sense"?
Yes Parliament has the power to block Brexit, of course it does. It could pass a motion of no confidence in Theresa May tomorrow before she has a chance to invoke Article 50. But because it is political suicide as you acknowledged that won't be happening. So its not legally binding but its politically binding. So in every real sense it is binding.
Yeah, you would say that 'every sense' trumps 'legal considerations', the fact of the matter is that it ain't necessarily so. And for all the likes of the CEO's of Nissan and Goldman Sachs care Theresa May is welcome to commit political suicide together with the combined leadership of both Conservative and Labour parties, if that would result in a situation for them that doesn't disturb their business model. They are also willing to do what they can to scare British politicians into not making Brexit happen. And to do that effectively they have to stay put.
Congratulations America
Since the vote there's been a great deal of uncertainty as to what Brexit will entail for UK-EU relations esp. wrt trade. At the time of the vote many people were still imagining the UK would join EFTA and trade with the EU under the EEA agreement. Until article 50 is invoked the timeline will be very unclear and until negotiations begin in earnest the future relationship with the EU will be very unclear (except for May's repeated assurances that she intends to undermine anything that will come even close to resembling eg. the EEA agreement).
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Uncertainty is meant to be bad, dragging out uncertainty is meant to be bad.
waiting for the results of a test is nerve wrecking, being told you have cancer is worse.
Congratulations America
No I did not. Which is why I contrasted the position you're taking here with the one you took elsewhere where there was also not a chance in hell of Parliament exercising such a power to just ignore your country's treaty obligations but you nonetheless trumpeted that it was technically possible.
Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"
Yes I said that it was technically possible while also saying it would never happen and would be a terrible idea due to realpolitik. I fail to see a contradiction. There we were debating legal technicalities not economic realities, here Hazir is claiming that a technicality has changed the economics. Two completely different discussions.
Why would it never happen? I could easily come up with a plan to trash the out-vote without the outs having any recourse. All it takes is for the Commons to have a no-confidence vote in order to trigger a general election in which article 50 becomes a central issue. Parties/Candidates could run on an anti-Brexit platform. If the anti-Brexit vote has it, Parliament can simply conclude it was all just a silly mistake and return to business as usual. Do you think it's impossible to bring down Theresa May in a vote of confidence procedure in Parliament? I suggest you think again then.
We also shouldn't forget there is a court case ongoing in which the rights of the government to trigger article 50 is contested on - amongst other things - that the government consistently has said that the referendum was advisory. Which could make a vote in the Commons inevitable. In which case ms May may herself decide that to call for a vote of confidence is the only viable way out.
So, back to your claim, that Brexit has as good as happened already; it hasn't.
Congratulations America
The Commons is not going to no-confidence though, it would be career suicide for anyone who does and "Turkeys don't vote for Christmas". The result of such a vote in the Commons would not be to kill Brexit, it would be to kill this Parliament and force an early General Election.
While it was relatively a close result (though nothing like some much closer ones in the not too distant past) on a constituency by constituency basis it was a landslide. Approximately 430 constituencies voted Leave, approximately 220 voted Remain. Remain though were concentrated in Scotland, Northern Ireland and inner London which don't have marginal constituencies and in the former two elect local parties anyway. MPs that tried to frustrate the will of the people would lose their jobs at the resulting General Election.
Across England and Wales where all but one each for Labour and Tory MPs sit and where all marginal constituencies are 421 out of 574 constituencies voted Leave. Nearly three quarters of constituencies in England and Wales voted Leave and you think the Commons will vote for an early election to block Brexit?
As for the government consistently saying the referendum was advisory, that is just not true. Lawyers and weasels have said that, the government have consistently said the result of the referendum would be implemented. The government line is not "it was advisory" it is "Brexit means Brexit" but even the last government under Cameron always said this result would be the "final decision".
This is cool: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-37692481
Clever by SI.
It would be political suicide, unless it turns out not to be so. In which case they will go for it so fast you won't have time to spell Brexit. There is a reason why Brexit fanatics are so desperate about invoking article 50 as soon as possible. They're scared stiff it may not happen after all, and the longer the government waits with article 50 the likelyhood of it not happening is actually rising.
Last edited by Hazir; 10-18-2016 at 07:38 PM.
Congratulations America
No chance. It is only the most delusional extremists who seriously believe that is possible - or that our continental partners would thank us for jerking them around like that doing the hokey cokey.
Obviously some of those delusional extremists are in a position too make decisions about whether or not thousands of jobs remain in the UK.
Congratulations America
No they're not. I haven't seen even a single large employer suggest Britain cancels Brexit, only deluded politicians.
A number of large employers have pressed their desire for a "soft Brexit" where we remain in the Single Market but that is not the same as suggesting they think Article 50 will never or should never be invoked. Personally I think soft Brexit is extremely unlikely, even though it'd be my preferred option (so long as we leave the Customs Union).
Soft Brexit = EU membership without the voting rights. You think big business thinks it very relevant if your politicians get a say?
People in the street though may wonder how taking back control got to mean no control at all. After which no-Brexit becomes an attractive alternative again. You can repeat as often as you want it can't happen but the fact is that it still could.
Congratulations America
Except that since the EU refuses to pre-negotiate before Article 50 by the point we are far in enough in the negotiations to know anything like that, Article 50 must have already been served, so we've gone back full circle.
Oddly enough it is your hardline "no talks without Article 50" that prevents your scenario coming to pass.
Well, the point is that you're already dragging things out endlessly, so I'm not sure why anyone would want to negotiate with you before invoking the Article 50, given the fact that it would only enable you to drag things out even longer. The snail's pace at which you're currently progressing would pretty much ensure that such pre-negotiations would relieve the pressure to actually invoke the article even further.
I suspect that we'd be still be negotiating in ten years if we allowed you any negotiations beforehand.
When the stars threw down their spears
And watered heaven with their tears:
Did he smile his work to see?
Did he who made the lamb make thee?
Less than a year to sort things out is not dragging things out endlessly, we've got 43 years of integration to be undone in just two. Realistically either we need an early General Election or if we go to full term then Brexit has to be completed by 2019 in order to be out of the way before the next election. If we go to the polls in 2020 without having exited yet then that would be destructive. Irate voters are a bigger threat to the government than your not wishing to be negotiating in ten years time (though its taken nearly that long and counting to deal with the Eurozone's debt crises).
So there is a deadline essentially of 2019 (New Years Day 2020 being the latest plausible) which implies an Article 50 date of 2017. Funnily enough the government's already said 2017.
So, after all you DO admit that Brexit didn't happen yet and actually a General Election could overturn the apple cart.
Elmar Brok worded it quite nicely today in an interview with the BBC; he said that he didn't have an idea about what Brexit was going to mean, because for starters he didn't feel that the British government had an idea about what it was going to mean, but what was even worse in his eyes, they also don't have an idea of the dynamics of the process or what they are up against.
Your post also shows this lack of understanding again. Actually to understand it you should return to Brexit is Brexit when it comes to article 50. You tell you want to leave, and after 2 years you are no longer a member of the EU. During the 2 years you try to come to a somewhat amicable division of the spoils. OF COURSE article 50 tells us that while we're negotiating the division of the spoils we keep an eye on how we want to cooperate once the two years are up. If your target is the clean break then of course a final settlement in the article 50 procedure looks different than when you decide to stay in some parts of the structure. For example; British Europol civil servants could stay where they are if the UK continues to be in Europol, if the UK is out, then those same civil servants would be more at their place in the national civil service in the UK. Extensions of the 2 year period are possible but not likely.
Once you realise that, you can see that negotiating a new deal for the UK can never be done from the cosy environment we're living in today; that will be done between the EU and a UK which at that point is either sovereign or cut loose, depending on where you stand. Which explains why Tusk said Brexit means either a hard Brexit or no Brexit.
Congratulations America
WOW!@OliverCooper: New Ipsos-MORI poll shows the Conservatives destroying Labour and UKIP:
Conservatives 47% (+7)
Labour 29% (-5)
LDs 7% (+1)
UKIP 6% (-3)
Maybe you guys should've started thinking on how to go about it before you did this stupid vote. Only morons vote for something where they have no idea how to implement what they're voting for.
When the stars threw down their spears
And watered heaven with their tears:
Did he smile his work to see?
Did he who made the lamb make thee?
So, here it is at last: The Grand Plan.
https://www.indy100.com/article/the-...rrying-7368926
Exporting tea. Seriously.
When there's not a single tea plantation inside the UK's borders.
When the stars threw down their spears
And watered heaven with their tears:
Did he smile his work to see?
Did he who made the lamb make thee?
UKIP are incompetent and purposeless. Labour has disappeared up it's own arse, on a mission to knife everything it finds. There is no meaningful national opposition. Of course you stomping ahead in the polls, but this is not healthy for the country.WOW!
There's a man goin' 'round, takin' names
And he decides who to free and who to blame
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