Geopolitical impact of Brexit

[Hazir]

So you keep saying though it's noteworthy that Merkel budged already from her usual lines yesterday.

Who even knows where the EU will stand by 2019? With the horror scenario of potentially soon having Presidents Orban, Le Pen and Hofer who knows what the EU's values will look like?

No Randblade, Merkel did no such thing. Merkel said she was categorically against compromises on the Freedom of Movement principle (which is in the Treaty of Rome, just so that you know). What Merkel said after that was that she was going to use the full extent of law, as EU Law and Directives allow, to stop people who have never worked in Germany or have worked only a short time in Germany from claiming non-contributory benefits. Ms Merkel was primarily talking about internal German legislation for that. Subsequently she indicated that it made sense to coordinate such legislation between EU member states.

None of this is even remotely connected to the Freedom of Movement you Brits get so hysterical about, because that indeed is something we on the Continent like very much and want to keep. Compromising on it could very well be political suicide for centrist politicians.

FYI; the presidency of Austria is ceremonial, the party he represents is not anti-EU. A potential President Le Pen would have to try to govern with a parliament that consists of 2/3rd representatives violently opposed to her. Orban stands a good chance of having his voting rights suspended under article 7 in a country where the EU actually is above average popular with its citizens. It also eludes me why you think it's easier to make deals with populists than with moderates.

[RandBlade]

We are leaving the Treaty of Rome. May as well mention what's in the Treaty of Versailles

[RandBlade]

Okay, who let this moron anywhere near a talk about Brexit?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7420706.html

Because this moron is an Italian minister?

[Khendraja'aro]

You guys specifically stated that you'd create a separate ministry just for handling the Brexit and that Johnson would come nowhere near the process.

And then he goes and sticks his foot in. Listen, it doesn't matter how the Italian minister acted - Johnson has just shown that he's simply not Foreign Secretary material.

Not to mention his absolute ignorance of the "Four Freedoms" of the EU. What an utter retard.

[RandBlade]

He's Foreign Secretary of course he's involved in the process. Who said that he wouldn't be?

As for not a proper foreign secretary what in your eyes is a proper foreign secretary? Someone who parrots the opposing nations party lines rather than our own?

[Khendraja'aro]

I don't know, someone diplomatic maybe?

Our foreign secretary Steinmeier gave a very good example of how a foreign secretary should act even in the face of antagonism.

And also, if he's supposed to be involved, why on earth do you have a Brexit secretary? Do you routinely appoint people to roles only to have them stepping on each others' toes? What kind of amateur hour are you guys running over there?

[RandBlade]

We've had diplomatic ministers for the last 40 years, much good it's done us. We need someone willing and able to say the unsayable, challenge the orthodoxy and stand up for Britain. Johnson ticks every box.

We have a Brexit secretary as there is a lot of work to be done, enough to justify a cabinet post. Doesn't mean he's solely in charge, he's not the PM is ultimately in charge. There is in fact a Brexit Cabinet group that are all working on Brexit and unsurprisingly to anyone who can rub a couple of braincells together ... the Foreign Secretary is part of that. So yes he is working on Brexit.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entr...b0010a7f3e7f38

[Khendraja'aro]

Erm, you guys do want to establish trade agreements, right?

Those don't come about with an attitude like that. You're not the Empire anymore, dude.

[RandBlade]

They don't come about by bending over and saying do with me what you want either.

[Khendraja'aro]

That's not what diplomacy is about, Rand.

I mean, even the US-Americans got that one right when Roosevelt spoke about "Speak softly, and carry a big stick."

You lack the big stick. Blustering won't get you very far.

[RandBlade]

We do carry a big stick and if you think we don't I'm not sure what could be said to change your mind?

[Hazir]

We've had diplomatic ministers for the last 40 years, much good it's done us. We need someone willing and able to say the unsayable, challenge the orthodoxy and stand up for Britain. Johnson ticks every box.

We have a Brexit secretary as there is a lot of work to be done, enough to justify a cabinet post. Doesn't mean he's solely in charge, he's not the PM is ultimately in charge. There is in fact a Brexit Cabinet group that are all working on Brexit and unsurprisingly to anyone who can rub a couple of braincells together ... the Foreign Secretary is part of that. So yes he is working on Brexit.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entr...b0010a7f3e7f38

What you really need is someone who gets you some favours, the balance of powers not being in your facour and all that.

[RandBlade]

Someone like Tony Blair who gave up part of our rebate in order to get a vague promise on CAP reform? So that the rebate came down and the CAP went untouched?

No thanks.

[Hazir]

Someone like Tony Blair who gave up part of our rebate in order to get a vague promise on CAP reform? So that the rebate came down and the CAP went untouched?

No thanks.

Oh, I remember when you called it a victory.

[RandBlade]

Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.

[Khendraja'aro]

We do carry a big stick and if you think we don't I'm not sure what could be said to change your mind?

And which "big stick" would that be exactly?

Oh, wait, crackers and tea. I forgot.

[Timbuk2]

Oh, wait, crackers and tea. I forgot.

Don't forget being polite at people too.

[Khendraja'aro]

Don't forget being polite at people too.

I think "being polite at people" is what got Johnson into hot water. Isn't it being "polite to people"?

[Timbuk2]

Nah. The Brits forged the largest empire the world has ever seen by being polite at people. A bit of violence, warmongering, torture, minor genocide, division of indiginous populations and overt cultural imperialism on the side. But mostly being polite at people.

[RandBlade]

LOL!

[RandBlade]

Loki a Liverpool fan who was ardently pro Remain has shared this joking that Brexit was right after all

https://www.theguardian.com/football...ause-of-brexit

[Hazir]

Just so that there is no confusion about it; I am ardently in favor of Brexit. Also the whole spectacle amuses me.

[Loki]

Loki a Liverpool fan who was ardently pro Remain has shared this joking that Brexit was right after all

https://www.theguardian.com/football...ause-of-brexit

When are all the foreign owners being expelled?

Incidentally, are you buying the new Kool-Aid about Britain having a higher economic potential outside of the single market?

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38037119

[RandBlade]

Common tariff we 100% need to leave. Single Market not so much. But we voted to leave it.

[Loki]

That's certainly not what you were claiming before Brexit. In fact, you didn't seem to think this was a price Britain would have to be pay. But ok.

[RandBlade]

I didn't think we would until it was all but announced during the campaign that we would. At that point I nearly flipped back to Remain but decided we should be able to get a Free Trade Deal like Switzerland.

[Hazir]

Wow, even Switzerland couldn't get a deal like Switzerland these days, and that was what you were counting on?

I really wonder why you Brexiteers have got to come up with new faux economic arguments at every turn. Why don't you simply admit you can't stand foreigners? Because that's the only unchangeable element in the whole slew of your positions.

[RandBlade]

We're worth far more to you than Switzerland. Both economically and in this uncertain world of ours in other ways too. If Trump unwinds America's support of NATO, with Russia's revanchism to the East, Islamic threats to the South, the rise of China and other potential threats, let alone internal risks like the rise of fascism in Europe once more ... is the EU really going to spurn their only major ally on the continent?

[Aimless]

Interesting. If Trump really were to unwind America's support of NATO, what would the UK do about all those threats you listed?

[RandBlade]

We have our own nuclear deterrent and spend more on our military than any nation in the rump of the EU, nearly as much as Russia. If the oil price stays low, we'll probably overtake Russia before long (as Russia is already struggling to maintain funding that at 5.4% of GDP is only a bit more than our 2% of GDP). We have military forces based in the Eastern European nations, to warn off any Russian revanchism being aimed there.

We wouldn't have a confrontation with Russia but deterrence is still very real which is what is needed. It would not be remotely in the interests of the former Soviet bloc nations in Eastern Europe to see the UK and USA packing up their troops and going home. That is a level of security Switzerland can not offer.